Special Report: Allen Iverson: What Could Have Been Part 3

ALLEN IVERSON WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN: PART 3
Allen Ezail Iverson was born in Hampton, Virginia, on June 7, 1975 to a 15-year old single woman, Ann Iverson. His father, Allen Broughton, skipped out on the family and he and his sister Brandy, born 1979, were left in the care of their mother Ann. In 1991, Allen Iverson, Brandy and their mother welcomed a new addition to the family, Leisha, who was very ill, which added to the family bills. By the time Leisha was born, Iverson at the age of 16 was often responsible for taking care of his younger sisters, which was especially difficult with Leisha, who suffered frequent seizures. Mounting medical bills pushed the family further in debt. Iverson had an extremely poor childhood, one often without the basic necessities like electricity, heat or water.

Iverson went to Bethel High in Hampton from 1990-1994. In Part 2, we looked closely at Iverson’s junior and senior years at this school. Now you know that while he was running the basketball and the football teams during those two years, and winning State Championships in both sports in the process, he was also teaming up with his Mom to take care of his two sisters, one of them with frequent seizures. The house that Iverson grew up in lay on top of the city’s sewer pipes. Whenever they burst, Allen’s floor would be coated with sewage.

Iverson’s biological father remained in Connecticut where the family lived before Allen was born. He never played a role in his life, and he was in jail from time to time, including from a jail sentence for stabbing a former girlfriend. Shortly after Allen’s birth his maternal grandmother passed away. The family was continuously broke to one extent or another. Due to unpaid bills, the house was often without electricity and even sometimes water. Iverson once hinted that his Mother sometimes engaged in black market activities to earn badly needed money.

It wasn’t just Ann, Allen, Brandy, and Leisha though; there was another member of the household. Ann’s boyfriend and Iverson’s de facto father, Michael Freeman, had been in and out of jail for most of his life. After a car accident made Freeman unemployed in 1991, a desperate for money Freeman was caught and convicted for drug possession with intent to distribute. Freeman never bought bling; he paid family bills with his black market income. Iverson has remained proud of Freeman through the years. "He never robbed nobody," said Iverson once. "He was just tryin’ to feed his family. It would kill him to come from jail and find out how his family was living. One time he came home and just sat down and cried."

Did you ever wonder who the first person was who taught a young Allen Iverson basketball? To tell him that basketball was his best bet rather than football? To give him the confidence needed to get him to work hard and to excel at basketball? Was it a hot shot agent or well off basketball camp entrepreneur? Was it someone who later got a huge money book deal or movie deal? Was it a famous retired coach or former player?

No, it was none of these. Both Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson come from serious ghettos, the kind where there is a truly large amount of violent crime and black market drug dealing. Because a serious ghetto is where Iverson comes from, it was a ghetto person who started Iverson’s basketball career. It was Michael Freeman, a felon but a striving and meaning well Iverson family benefactor in the time of need. Iverson’s mother enrolled him in a little league type basketball practice program, but the young Allen Iverson was more of a football fan. It was Michael Freeman who pushed Iverson away from football and to basketball.

On Valentines Day 1993, Iverson was connected with a fracas at the Spare Times Bowling Center in the city of Hampton, Virginia. He had a few weeks earlier finished leading the Bethel High football team to the State Championship and he was in the process of leading the basketball squad to the State Championship. Everyone knew Iverson, some were jealous, and a few wanted to ruin the reputation of the young sports hero who came from the wrong neighborhood, the neighborhood where you can buy illegal drugs, and the neighborhood where no sane person would walk down the street at night. I guess they thought there was something unjust about someone who came from such a terrible neighborhood being such a school hero. Surely someone from a good neighborhood should be the hero, right? Or so they thought.

So Iverson and a group of his black teammates went to the bowling ally to unwind from basketball, and to celebrate the recent historical football win. They were loud and were asked to quiet down several times. Eventually, Iverson’s group and another group of white youths started shouting at each other. Not long into the shouting, a big fight erupted, pitting the black youths against the white youths. There has never been agreement about many of the specifics of the fight, especially specifics on what role if any Allen Iverson played. At one extreme, the prosecutors claimed that Iverson was fully involved and that he threw a chair at a girl and another chair at an employee. At the other extreme, others including Iverson claim Iverson was not involved at all.

PROSECUTOR’S ACCOUNT
Prosecutors ironically used a Civil War-era statute designed to protect blacks from lynchings to charge a group of black teens with mob violence. Seventeen-year-old Iverson was tried as an adult, convicted of “maiming by mob,” and sentenced to five years for throwing a chair at a girl. The judge, who was friends with one of the victim’s family, first denied them bail and then sentenced all four to 5 years in prison

Witnesses unaligned with either of the two groups testified that Iverson threw the chair at the girl. But at least according to prosecutors, no one heard Allen Iverson being called a nigger. Kristi Alligood, one of the witnesses, testified: "During a break in the fight, the girl went up to one of the black guys and said ‘Why do you have to make this racial?’ He [Iverson] just pressed two fingers against her face and pushed her away."

A bowling center employee testified that Iverson used a different chair to hit him in the head as well.

The prosecutor, a life-long NAACP member, pointed out that none of the blacks in the fight wanted to pursue charges, and that there were several black witnesses joining white witnesses identifying Iverson as the main culprit.

IVERSON AND HIS SUPPORTERS ACCOUNT
Iverson and his supporters maintain his innocence to this day. They claim that he left the alley as soon as the trouble began. Evidence against Iverson at trial was limited to witness statements only. Iverson could not be seen on an amateur video tape of the incident, and he claims he left the alley as soon as the trouble began. "For me to be in a bowling alley where everybody in the whole place know who I am and me be crackin’ people upside the head with chairs and think nothin’ gonna happen?" asked Iverson not long after the incident. "That’s crazy! And what kind of a man would I be to hit a girl in the head with a damn chair? I wish at least they’d said I hit some damn man."

Allen’s supporters were enraged that only four people were charged after the fight, all of them black. They were upset with the media’s allegedly biased coverage of the incident. And they claim the whole thing started when one of the white boys called Iverson a "nigger". "It’s strange enough that police waded through a huge mob of fighting people and came out with only blacks, and the one black that everybody knew," said Golden Frinks, crisis coordinator for the National Association for Advancement of Colored People. "But people thought they’d get a slap on the wrist and that would be the end of it." But the little fight in the bowling ally resulted in large 5-year prison sentences.

I remember at the time cracking jokes to myself about how Virginia is the kind of state where you might get a year in the slammer for littering, or two years for allowing your dog to take a dump in a park, or three years for driving with a suspended registration, but with a valid license and insurance. You get the idea; Virginia was a state you wouldn’t want to live in if you thought there was even a 1 in 100 chance that you would make a mistake that would constitute breaking a law. Live anywhere but Virginia. Virginia is not for lovers; it’s for jailers.

But this strange story gets stranger. Virginia’s first black Governor, Doug Wilder, granted Iverson a conditional release from the long sentence after four months behind bars because he became convinced that Iverson had been treated unfairly. While granting clemency, Wilder told Iverson to stay off the courts and to concentrate on receiving his high school diploma. Some time after this clemency nullified the sentence, the conviction itself was overturned on appeal. Therefore, what happened at the Spare Times Bowling Center in Hampton Virginia on Valentine’s Day 1993 remains both factually and legally uncertain to this day.

Iverson was supposed to have been a Kentucky Wildcat, but due to his incarceration, Iverson missed out on a scholarship to Kentucky University.

He studied while in jail, and after 5 months behind bars, Iverson was set free. In the meantime, Ann Iverson went to Georgetown University to convince Coach John Thompson to be her son's guardian, to be both his coach and a father figure. Once Thompson saw Iverson's talent, he accepted, and Iverson was offered a full scholarship to Georgetown University, which of course Iverson accepted.

But no matter what happened after the Valentine’s Day incident, Iverson was now destined to be trapped permanently in a no-man’s land between fully integrated into and accepted by society at large, and being an untouchable outcast. If you are a convicted felon, your pro sports career is pretty much over whether or not it has ever gotten underway. Iverson was a convicted felon, but then he was not one. So he was still technically qualified to become a basketball star, but he would never be fully accepted by basketball fans, including fans of his own teams. Fans in Philadelphia often yelled out nasty slurs when Iverson was near the sideline close to them. For example, they would yell out “Get a haircut,” or “How are the crack sales going?”

Do not forget these details of what happened when Allen Iverson was young. We will return to these things in later parts. For example, this series will explain how Iverson’s upbringing in general and the 1993 Valentine’s Day incident and what resulted from it in particular helped start a fire in 1997 that resulted in Iverson’s course through the NBA to be substantially different from what should have and could have been. The Denver Nuggets, their fans, and to some extent Allen Iverson himself are all still damaged from what the 1993 Valentine’s Day incident played a huge role in causing. In future parts, we will explore the chain of events that began with that stupid incident in the bowling center in Hampton, Virginia and that end with the present day Nuggets playing an offense that is clearly inferior to those of the top teams of the West.

The Denver Nuggets Lose in Philadelphia to the 76'ers 115-113 and Allen Iverson: What Could Have Been, Part 1

The Nuggets, despite being on the ropes with respect to making the playoffs, could not survive serious offensive droughts in the 2nd half and could not step it up to win a winnable game; the Philadelphia 76’ers defeated the underperforming Nuggets 115-113. The Sixers had all three of the known outside factor advantages. They were the home team, the Nuggets were playing on back to back nights while the 76’ers were rested, and the Nuggets were in a higher alert status than were the Sixers due mostly to coaching errors and the Nene illness. An estimate of the advantage the Sixers had due to all of these outside factors is 12 points, so the Nuggets made up 10 of these points, but could not make up the other 2 to at least send the game into overtime.

Are the Nuggets doing everything possible to try to make the playoffs? No, they are clearly not. Chucky Atkins and J.R. Smith played only 6 and 15 minutes respectively, while Marcus Camby played 37 minutes and had 5 points and Eduardo Najera played 20 minutes and had 0 points. Even worse than not having a center who can make a lot of power drives, post-ups, layups, and dunks, is the fact that the Nuggets almost always have at least 1 front court player who is largely left out of the offense in every game. Sometimes it’s Camby, sometimes it’s Eduardo Najera, and sometimes it’s Linas Kleiza. Sometimes Carmelo Anthony is partially left out of the offense. It used to be Kenyon Martin in certain games many weeks ago, but rarely anymore is it him. But it’s almost always someone, so the Nuggets are always playing with one front court player tied behind their backs so to speak. And because Karl gives only 2 guards a lot of playing time, Iverson and Carter, and because Carter is a low rate scorer, they are always playing with one guard tied behind their backs as well.

Are the Nuggets at least going all out effort wise to make the playoffs? Probably not; they have a coach who likes to explain away losses by talking about the tough personality of the other team, as if the opponent was a living thing with a major psychological advantage over the Nuggets, who I guess, in Karl’s world, are too unserious and psychologically wobbly to ever be a truly good basketball team. But teams are not human and they don’t have personalities except in a superficial, stylistic sense. Karl is clearly confused about what a personality really is; it’s a lot more complicated and a lot less of a factor in winning basketball games than he thinks.

Teams are a collection of players, and even the personalities of the players are almost always a relatively minor factor. What is needed to win basketball games is within the capability of every personality to produce; everyone has the ability to step it up and do well on the court, regardless of how you would describe or analyze their personalities. Everyone agrees that J.R. Smith has an immature, impulsive, and somewhat unpredictable personality, but that has not stopped him from being one of the best shooting guards in the NBA so far in 2008. Sometimes I almost feel silly discussing these things, but I have to, because this is how the Coach of the Denver Nuggets thinks.

ALLEN IVERSON: WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN, PART 1

So Allen Iverson returned to Philadelphia, but for all practical purposes he never left. Amazingly, there has not been the slightest adjustment in Iverson’s role after the move from the 76’ers to the Nuggets. He still has exactly, and I mean exactly, the same role he had in Philadelphia. He’s still playing the same old position, shooting guard, even though he started out in high school, in college, and in his rookie of the year season as a point guard, and even though he returned to that position for most of the 3 1/3 years after Coach Larry Brown left the Sixers, and even though the Nuggets are starting a player at the point, Anthony Carter, who has never been even hypothetically let alone actually regarded as a starting point guard until this year.

In 7 years prior to coming on the Nuggets, Carter never started more than 30 games in a season, never played more than 23.5 minutes a game, never made more than 4.8 assists per game, and never scored more than 6.4 points a game. This is the player that George Karl chose over Allen Iverson to be the starting point guard for the Denver Nuggets after Chucky Atkins, who has been regarded as a true starting point guard for many years, was lost for most of the season. And now as if to make everyone absolutely sure that he doesn’t know what he is doing on the point guard front, Karl has suddenly discontinued the crucial effort to get Chucky Atkins in good form for the playoff run and for the playoffs. Atkins played 3 extremely good games in a row, against the Grizzlies, the Raptors and the Sonics. Then, after he was only average in the Pistons game, he played only 6 minutes in this 76’ers game. So much for the theory that even Karl is not dumb enough to not know that getting Atkins back into good form is crucial for the Nuggets if they really want to make the playoffs, and if they really want to avoid losing a playoff series 4-0 or 4-1.

Before this season, Carter had started 102 games in an 8-year career and had played about 7,000 minutes. Before this season, Atkins had started 314 games and had played about 16,000 minutes. But in Karl’s mind, Carter needs to start the rest of the way for the Nuggets regardless of whether Atkins is back in good form or not. In fact, Karl apparently doesn’t even consider himself to be responsible to try to make sure that Atkins gets back into top form.

Lord help you if you are injured and don’t come back for awhile while playing for George Karl, because when you do come back, you might find that your entire NBA career now counts for nothing, and you are no longer considered, in Karl’s world, what you were before the injury.

I had a forum conversation with a 76’ers fan on a 76’ers forum. I am reprinting it here, because you can see what I am up against as I explain why the Nuggets have failed this year. And how it turns out that the trade of Andre Miller for Allen Iverson failed, not because it was intrinsically a bad trade, but because the Nuggets simply did not understand that using A.I. in the exact same way that Larry Brown used him would lead to the exact same result, Melo or no Melo: no playoffs or a quick early out in the playoffs. All having Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby on his team does for Iverson is to offset the fact that the Western Conference is far better than the Eastern Conference.

Iverson has ended up in the exact same situation he was in Philadelphia. Iverson in Denver, like Iverson in Philadelphia, continues to be asked to do too much and not enough at the same time. As in Philadelphia, Iverson in Denver is asked to play both guard positions at once and he is asked to be at the same time the number one playmaker and the number one scorer among guards for the Nuggets. But he is not asked to adjust his game a little, so that the number of easy to defend isolation plays he runs is reduced and the number of hard to defend passing plays he runs is increased.

By reading the following interesting interchange, you can see how even a major 76’ers and Iverson fan has fallen into the trap of thinking too narrowly about Iverson and what he can do. There is a logical fallacy, or optical illusion if you prefer, involved with thinking that Iverson can not be a good point guard. And there is more of interest, so read on.

NUGGETS 1:
Well, I don't think Iverson is a perfect PG, and he is obviously a much more aggressive scorer than most PGs, but I think it is going too far to say he is a poor PG. Just a few quick reasons off the top of my head:

1. Iverson was the PG in his 2 years at Georgetown University and heavily dominated in assists for his team.
2. As you confirm, Iverson was the PG in his rookie of the year first year in the NBA.
3. As you confirm, Iverson returned mostly to the PG position after Larry Brown was gone. It turns out that although Iverson has played more years at SG than at PG, more coaches have preferred Iverson at PG over SG.
4. The NBA front office has always considered Iverson to be a PG at least as much as a SG, since his position at the all-star games has been PG, not SG.
5. Everyone agrees that Iverson can play either position, and he frequently plays both positions at once at the same time. So if he were truly a poor PG, wouldn't he have evolved over the years to limit himself to the SG role, with or without having to be told to do that by coaches? In other words, if he is much better in the SG role than in the PG role, than why can he still be seen today often running the point, and why is he 7th in the NBA in assists per game, ahead of most of the actual point guards?
6. The Nuggets, once Chucky Atkins went out for most of the season, were left with the choice of playing Iverson at the point or playing Anthony Carter at the point. Carter is someone who never averaged more than 23.5 minutes per game and 4.8 assists per game before he was befriended by George Karl, who likes his personality and conservative playmaking style. So even a good number of those who don't think Iverson is all that great a point guard would have to agree that the Nuggets should have played him at the position in the emergency they found themselves in when Atkins was lost for most of the season. In other words, Karl made a mistake regardless of exactly how great a PG Iverson really is.

76’ERS FAN:
These are because of his height. Iverson's height makes him a defensive liability at SG, and tall, effective points are a rarity.

Most of his coaches have preferred him at SG, I'll show you

PG: Davis, O'Brien, Thompson
SG: Brown, Ayers, Ford, Cheeks, Karl

Cheeks didn't have another point option, so he was forced to play AI there, but he hated it. He even played Iguadala there in the 06-07 season over Iverson.

NUGGETS 1:
Cheeks can’t be counted as just SG, because it was both, so he should be 1/2 point for each. Ayers and Ford can only count as 1/2 each, because they coached in the same season, and it is even rarer for one of the best players in the NBA to have his position changed during the season than it would be for him to have his position changed from one year to the next. So it is really 3 1/2 coaches each. But I bet if I went back to high school, it would be PG again!

76’ERS FAN:
The same is true in the all-star game. He gets point by virtue of being shorter.

NUGGETS 1
Well if he’s too short to play the SG position in the all-star game, then he is definitely too short to play the SG position in ordinary games. One or the other is wrong; either the NBA front office is wrong for listing him as a PG for all-star voting, or Larry Brown and George Karl are wrong for designating him as a SG.

76’ERS FAN:
Assists do not equal being a good point guard. Iverson gets most of his assists as bail outs - last resorts after his scoring options are exhausted. He doesn't set up the offense, and he holds the ball for too long to be an effective point. When he runs it, the other players feel alienated from the game, and it leads to inconsistency from the team. His numbers will look great, but the overall offense becomes stagnant. It's why the Nuggets traded for Blake.

NUGGETS 1:
There is some truth in your observations, but you can’t use those observations to prove that Iverson is a poor PG, because the SG position has different priorities than the PG position does, and any player moved from PG to SG would have to change his game or be a failure at SG. In other words, there is a lack of logic in saying: “Look, there’s Iverson running another isolation dribble and fade away again. See, he would be a bad PG. But he’s doing what shooting guards are allowed and frequently encouraged to do, so it is an invalid observation.

It's not really much different from saying that Ray Allen, Rashad McCants, or Jason Richardson would not be good point guards based on how they are playing right now. It's true, but it isn't a valid or logical observation.

76’ERS FAN:
The nuggets are visibly more energetic and better on offense with Carter in the game. He's not as explosive as Iverson, but he's solid and consistent, which denver really needs. Keeping blake would've done them better, but they didn't want to pay the luxury tax.

NUGGETS 1:
I think the Nuggets are more energetic and better on offense with the Iverson / J.R. Smith backcourt than they are with the Iverson / Carter offense. Adjusted for pace, and you have to adjust to get the real truth, the Nuggets are about the 5th best team in the NBA on defense, but only about the 15th best team in the NBA on offense.

76’ERS FAN:
Playing carter has really helped the nuggets' turnovers, as Iverson turns the ball over way to much as a point, he's never had even a 2 to 1 assist to TO ratio while playing that position.

NUGGETS 1:
The Nuggets are still a high turnover team even with Carter. Iverson is still handling the ball extensively even while being designated the SG. In every game, Iverson runs the point to one extent or another. The more Iverson runs the point, the less value Carter has in games. J.R. Smith offsets his turnovers with steals and explosive scoring, so the Iverson PG / J.R. Smith SG backcourt would not be worse than the Carter PG / Iverson SG backcourt in terms of net damage from turnovers. George Karl simply decided that he couldn’t stomach the number of turnovers you would get with the Iverson / Smith backcourt; he never made a reasonable estimation of all costs and all benefits.

76’ERS FAN:
Don't get me wrong. I'm as big an Iverson fan as there is, and I've watch nearly every Nuggets game since he was traded. But I'd like to see him appreciated for what he is. Classifying him as a point exposes his weaknesses at that position. He's an incredibly versatile shooting guard who can fill in there when needed.

NUGGETS 1:
Well the Nuggets lost their starting PG for most of the season, so if AI wasn’t needed then at the position, then when would he be needed? Never, because Karl will go through all kinds of contortions to avoid playing AI at the point, because Karl buys into the myth that AI is a poor PG, or at least because he thinks that AI has been spoiled as a PG by playing SG for so many years.

Iverson briefly started at PG last year for the Nuggets, and did reasonably well. But ever since Karl grew to detest J.R. Smith about a year ago, starting AI at the point has been out of the question, because he would have to start J.R. Smith at 2-guard if he did that and he will not start J.R. Smith under any circumstances. Smith has been one of the best shooting guards in the NBA since 2008 began, but all it has gotten him is about half a dozen more minutes per game. Karl still refuses to even consider starting him and would rather miss the playoffs than start J.R. Smith.

76’ERS FAN:
By the way, the reason the Nuggets are struggling is inconsistent effort, especially on the defensive end, and a lack of ball movement. Combining two isolation players in Iverson and Anthony was never a good idea. They don't, and can't work off of each other, so they end up taking turns scoring, with one of them holding the ball 5-10 seconds on most possessions. It effectively limits both of their explosiveness.

And by not involving the players enough, it takes their heads out of the game, which leads to long stretches where they barely play any defense. Carmelo is the worst at that, but Iverson isn't much better, and his height hurts things.

NUGGETS 1:
Ok, you have done extremely well describing some of the big problems the Nuggets have with Iverson at SG, unaccountable for how many isolation plays he runs at that position. If Iverson is designated the PG and you tell him: “A.I., I want 10-12 assists per game and 18-20 points per game instead of 7 assists per game and 25 points per game,” and as long as all the years he has played the wrong position for Brown and Karl have not made him unable to adjust, which I greatly doubt, you have gone a long way to solving the big problems that you described.

You see what is going on here? Iverson is faulted for not being a good point guard while he is assigned to the shooting guard position, by people who swear he is not a good enough point guard to be designated as a point guard. This is both a circular and an illogical argument. Most of the Iverson critics are trying to have it both ways. They are criticizing Iverson for not being what he has not been instructed to be, on account of an assumption that he can’t be that. They are watching Iverson playing the SG position and saying “Look, there’s Iverson running all of those isolation plays. You see, he can’t be a good point guard.” To which I respond: you have no point and you are not making any sense.

The bottom line is that the Nuggets clearly should have moved AI to PG after Chucky Atkins went out for most of the season at the beginning of the season. That is what all the basketball sites were expecting at the beginning of the year; all of the depth charts were showing Iverson starting at PG and Smith starting at SG. But George Karl dislikes J.R. Smith with a passion and has overestimated his negatives by far. Almost every decision Karl makes in relation to the guards has the same common denominator: Smith's playing time is reduced from what it would be if a different decision were made.

Now we will never know for sure if the Iverson / Smith back court would have gotten the Nuggets a decent seed in the playoffs, but I would be extremely surprised if it would not have. I think the Nuggets would have been 3rd, 4th, or 5th seed in the West had the Nuggets realized who really was their best point guard, and their best back court.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 75%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 44%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West. If the Nuggets and the Warriors finish with identical records though, the Warriors will most likely be the team that makes the playoffs, not the Nuggets. This is because the tie breaker, assuming the two split their season series 2-2, will be who has the better Western Conference record, and the Warriors are 2 games ahead in the loss column on that right now.

So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot.

The Suns made a poor trade, but they have been on a winning streak lately, and they have won several key games, which means they may not be in a lot of danger of falling out of the playoffs after all. Key recent Suns’ victories include a win over the Spurs on March 9 and a win over the Warriors on March 13. But it is way too early to claim that the trade was not a mistake after all and that Shaquille O’Neal will work out for the Suns.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 44% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Mavericks are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, the Suns are virtual locks, and the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 58-24
2. Rockets 55-27
3. Hornets 55-27
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Suns 54-28
6. Spurs 53-29
7. Mavericks 53-29
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33

The Warriors are now 2 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. Golden State has a slightly more difficult schedule than the Nuggets do the rest of the way, making this race closer than it appears. However, if the Nuggets make up the 2 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 2 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are almost certainly out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are a little more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 10-4 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 9-5 will probably not be good enough and 8-6 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 11-3 in their last 14 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 3%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 97% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the Nets game on March 21.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 32 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

76’ERS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Herbert Hill: knee injury and surgery, and he could be out for the rest of the season.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 20, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREEN ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008
EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR
At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following:

1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head.
2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season.
3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans.

The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error:

Allen Iverson: 32-42
Carmelo Anthony: 30-42
Marcus Camby: 28-38
Kenyon Martin: 24-34
J.R. Smith: 22-34
Linas Kleiza: 16-28
Eduardo Najera: 16-24
Chucky Atkins: 14-22
Anthony Carter: 12-20
Yakhouba Diawara: 0-14
Taurean Green: 0-10
Steven Hunter: 0-10

Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are usually charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing below their minimum minutes on a repeated basis.

EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME:

J.R. Smith: Underplayed, 4 points
Chucky Atkins: Underplayed, 4 points
Kenyon Martin: Overplayed, 2 points
Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 1 point
Allen Iverson: Overplayed, 1 point

If you think this is really bad, think again. This current toll of playing time errors is actually a little light by Karl’s standards.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. The problem recently appeared in the March 18 Pistons game, and it helped to cause the Nuggets to lose.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

How good your defense is is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks.

This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 5

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 4 Points.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 35, which constitutes GREY ALERT.

GREY ALERT (30-39): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses. There should be no impact with respect to medium and poor teams..

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
The description of the alert status the Nuggets are in is a worst case scenario one; it assumes that the other team is in GREEN or NO alert. All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting a difference.

OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS
George Karl has been doing better than usual with the rotations lately; no one is benched who should not be, and the offense has been in super drive against poor and average defensive teams. All of these things have helped to push the alert status down to GREEN Alert.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do

EXPLANATION OF OUTSIDE FACTORS
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the game points advantage will be for each 15 points of alert status points difference has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. For now we will use 4 points for each 15 alert status points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In summary, we are using 4 points for each of the three outside factors.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The 76’ers had no important players unavailable, and a rough estimate of their alert status is that they are in GREEN alert. They roughly had a 15 points or 1 level advantage over the Nuggets in alert status, which translates into a 4 point advantage. The 76’ers were home. The Nuggets were playing on back to back nights. In summary, the 76’ers had a 12 point edge over the Nuggets due to outside factors. Since the 76’ers won by only 2 points, we can confidently say that the Nuggets would have won this game were it not for the outside factors.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 76’ers 9
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 76’ers 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 16
76’ers Non-Starters Points: 30

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 17
76’ers Non-Starters Rebounds: 15

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 6
76’ers Non-Starters Assists: 0

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
There was no garbage time. Each coach played 9 players for at least 6 minutes, but one of the Nuggets, Chucky Atkins, did not play 10 minutes or more while all of the 76’ers played 10 minutes or more. Atkins was denied the courtesy of even 10 minutes of playing time despite the fact that he has played extremely well lately.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also.

In scoring, the 76’ers non-starters almost doubled up the Nuggets’ non-starters, 30-16. In rebounding though, the Nuggets’ non-starters were slightly better, 17-15. Due to the overwhelming dominance of Andre Miller as a playmaker in this game, the 76’ers non-starters made no assists. The Nuggets’ non-starters made 6 assists.

STARTERS
Points: Nuggets 97 76’ers 85
Rebounds: 76’ers 42 Nuggets 27
Assists: Nuggets 22 76’ers 22

The Nuggets starters defeated the 76’ers starters 97-85. But the 76’ers starters out rebounded the Nuggets starters 42-27. Each starting five made 22 assists.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-76’ERS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings of 50+ indicate superstar power performers.
Ratings of 40-49 indicate star power performers
Ratings of 30-39 indicate power performers.
Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers.
Ratings of 10-19 indicate ordinary role player performers.
Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Allen Iverson: Game 51.7 Season 41.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 41.1 Season 23.1
Carmelo Anthony: Game 35.0 Season 39.0
Anthony Carter: Game 23.8 Season 20.0
Linas Kleiza: Game 20.1 Season 18.4
Marcus Camby: Game 17.7 Season 32.7
J.R. Smith: Game 10.3 Season 16.6
Eduardo Najera: Game 5.6 Season 13.3
Chucky Atkins: Game 1.6 Season 10.4

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

76’ERS PLAYER RATINGS
Andre Miller: Game 50.3 Season 31.4
Andre Igoudala: Game 38.6 Season 33.4
Samuel Dalembert: Game 33.4 Season 25.0
Willie Green: Game 25.3 Season 18.9
Rodney Carney: Game 14.6 Season 9.2
Thaddeus Young: Game 14.5 Season 14.3
Reggie Evans: Game 11.7 Season 13.7
Jason Smith: Game 11.5 Season 9.1
Louis Williams: Game 9.0 Season 17.4

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
Allen Iverson was the most productive player on the court and was a superstar power performer. Andre Miller was slightly behind Iverson and was also a superstar power performer. Kenyon Martin for the Nuggets was a star power performer.

Anthony was a power performer for the Nuggets while Igoudala and Dalembert were power performers for the 76’ers.

Among players who were power performers or better, each team had 3.

For the Nuggets, Iverson and Martin gave the most to try to win this game: Martin was about 75% more productive than usual and Iverson was about 1/5 more productive than usual, and he is the 5th most productive player in the NBA on average. The only 4 players who are more productive than Iverson are LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, and Amare Stoudemire.

Carter was about 1/5 above normal and Kleiza was about 1/10 above normal and these two were key role players in this game

Carmelo Anthony was 90% as productive as usual.

The major down Nuggets were Camby and Najera. By far the biggest disappointment for the Nuggets was Marcus Camby, who was only about 60% as productive as usual. He dropped from being a star power performer to being an ordinary role player. Najera was also a big disappointment, as he was only about 40% as productive as usual, with normal playing time

In the case of 2 other Nuggets who were below normal, reduced playing time was involved. J.R. Smith was about 60% as productive as usual, but this was partly due to minutes below his seasonal average, Atkins was extremely unproductive, but this was almost entirely due to lack of playing time.

PG Andre Miller was by far the biggest upside for the 76’ers, with a 2/3 more productive performance, up to superstar power performer from ordinary power performer

C Dalembert, SG Green, and SF Carney all did damage to the Nuggets’ chances, as all 3 were a solid 1/3 above normal. Each one of these moved up one level from normal. Dalembert, for example, moved up from being a key role player to a power performer. SF Igoudala was even more of a power performer than usual, 15% above the normal.

The biggest disappoint for the 76’ers was PG Williams, who was only about half as productive as usual on 80% of the usual minutes.

Among other less important players, PF Jason Smith was about 1/4 more productive than usual while PF Young was exactly normal. Former Nugget PF Reggie Evans was about 85% as productive as usual.

In summary, the 76’ers had only 1 player who played substantially below normal, while the Nuggets had 4, one of which was a huge loss, Camby, and 2 of which who were affected by reduced playing time.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-76’ERS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Andre Miller, Phi 1.290
2. Allen Iverson, Den 1.202
3. Anthony Carter, Den 1.133
4. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.082
5. Rodney Carney, Phi 1.043
6. Willie Green, Phi 0.973
7. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.957
8. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.946
9. Andre Iguodala, Phi 0.877
10. Samuel Dalembert, Phi 0.835
11. Jason Smith, Phi 0.719
12. Thaddeus Young, Phi 0.690
13. J.R. Smith, Den 0.687
14. Reggie Evans, Phi 0.532
15. Louis Williams, Phi 0.500
16. Marcus Camby, Den 0.478
17. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.280
18. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.267…Atkins played only 6 minutes.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best player on the court was Andre Miller, who beat out Allen Iverson; both of them were star-plus though.

Kenyon Martin and Anthony Carter were stars for Denver.

Among players who were stars or better, the Nuggets had 3 and the 76’ers had 1.

Kleiza and Anthony were outstanding for the Nuggets, while Carney and Green were outstanding for the 76’ers.

Igoudala and Dalembert were very good for the 76’ers. Jason Smith was good for the 76’ers.

Young for the 76’ers and J.R. Smith for the Nuggets were mediocre.

Evans and Williams were poor for the 76’ers. Camby was very poor for the Nuggets. Najera and Atkins on limited minutes were extremely poor for the Nuggets.

Among players who were mediocre or worse, the Nuggets had 4 while the 76’ers had 3.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Carmelo Anthony: +5
Anthony Carter: +2
Kenyon Martin: +1
Allen Iverson: +0
Marcus Camby: +0
Linas Kleiza: -3
J.R. Smith: -5
Eduardo Najera: -5

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 13, Team 0, Anthony 4, Atkins 0, Camby 2, Carter 0, Iverson 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 2, Najera 0, Smith 2

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 27, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 1, Carter 3, Iverson 3, Kleiza 5, Martin 5, Najera 4, Smith 2

Chucky Atkins played 6 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points, and he made 1 assist and 1 rebound.

Eduardo Najera played 20 minutes and was 0/1 and 0/1 on 3’s for 0 points, and he made 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Marcus Camby played 37 minutes and was 2/6 and 1/2 from the line for 5 points, and he made 4 blocks, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals.

J.R. Smith played 15 minutes and was 3/10, 2/5 on 3’s, and 1/2 from the line for 9 points, and he made 2 assists and 2 rebounds

Carmelo Anthony played 37 minutes and was 9/20, 3/4 on 3’s, and 5/6 from the line for 26 points, and he made 4 assists and 4 rebounds.

Linas Kleiza played 21 minutes and was 2/7, 1/3 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 7 points, and he made 11 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Kenyon Martin played 38 minutes and was 10/15 and 2/4 from the line for 22 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 4 steals, and 4 assists.

Anthony Carter played 21 minutes and was 5/8 and 2/4 on 3’s for 12 points, and he made 3 assists, 3 steals, and 1 rebound.

Allen Iverson played for most of the game, 43 minutes, and was 13/24, 3/5 on 3’s, and 3/5 from the line for 32 points, and he made 8 assists, 3 steals, and 2 rebounds.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Friday, March 21 in New Jersey to play the Nets at 5:30 pm mountain time. Neither the Nuggets nor the Nets will be playing on back to back nights.

The Pistons Beat the Nuggets at Their Own Game 136-120

The Pistons usually defeat the Nuggets by slowing the game down and by disrupting and defending the Nuggets’ on the fly offense well enough to grind out a win. This time, they played the game on what are supposedly the Nuggets’ terms, and yet the result was exactly the same: the Pistons clearly and relatively easily won, 136-120. The Nuggets needed this win to be able to make up ground against the Golden State Warriors in the race for the last playoff spot in the West. So our task is to determine why the Nuggets could not get it done even when they had the Pistons where they wanted them, in an up tempo game, and even when they needed the win more than the Pistons did, and even though they are about as talented a team in basketball skills as are the Pistons.

The first thing you should understand is that fast breaks are overrated as a strategy. Fast breaks are a medium payoff potential strategy at best, meaning that there are other possible strategies that have bigger payoffs, such as the triangle offense for example. In other words, even when you are getting a substantial number of fast breaks, you will seldom be able to win a game based just on doing well with them.

Furthermore, you have less control over fast breaks than you do over other possible offensive strategies. You never know how many fast breaks you are actually going to get in a game no matter what you do to try to get them. Obviously, the other team has some say as to how many fast breaks you are actually going to get in a game. Some teams are quick enough in terms of defensive anticipation and reaction that they will head off many possible fast breaks at the pass so to speak.

So in this up tempo game, you would have expected the Nuggets to excel in fast break scoring, but not only did they not excel, the Pistons beat them in fast break scoring, 18-11. The Pistons made the fast break strategy look silly in this game, let’s face it. They pretty much made a mockery of the Nuggets’ over emphasis on the fast break.

Now let’s look at the playmaking, or offensive identity. Generally speaking, the more your offense comes from playmaking, and the less it comes from isolation scoring, the more successful your offense is. The Nuggets are the fastest pace team in the NBA. Adjusted for pace, the Nuggets need to get at least 24 assists in a game to be able to say that they have had a decent offensive game. They need at least 29 assists in a game to be able to say that they have succeeded very well in making their offense a quality one through playmaking. In this game, the Nuggets made 31 assists, so they clearly met the gross assists requirement, or guideline if you prefer.

The Pistons are the slowest pace team in the NBA. Adjusted for pace, the Pistons on average need only 21 assists in a game to be able to say that they played a decent offensive game. They need at least 25 assists in a game to be able to say that they have succeeded very well in making their offense a quality one through playmaking. In this game, the Pistons made 41 assists, so they obviously were way above their standard for having a good offensive identity and a well run offense.

So overall the Pistons made 41 assists while the Nuggets made 31, which is exhibit A so to speak to show that the Pistons beat the Nuggets at their own game.

A second guideline you have to meet to have a good offensive identity and a well run offense is that who is doing the majority of the playmaking needs to be established, known by all the players, and be as consistent as possible from game to game. In other words, to put it simply, you need to establish who is most responsible for making plays. It sounds simple and obvious, but the truth is that the Nuggets have not done this in a clear enough and consistent enough way, and it has cost them several games, possibly including this one.

The rule of thumb I like to measure this with is to say that the second requirement is that at least half but no more than 2/3 of all assists should be made by the top two playmaking guards on the team. The number one playmaker generally needs to be a designated point guard, while the number two playmaker can be either another point guard or a shooting guard. You almost never will succeed if a forward is the second of the two playmakers, although it is theoretically possible to succeed in rare circumstances.

This Nuggets-Pistons game was a super drive game; the number of assists exploded because neither team was worrying much about defending. In games that have gone into offensive super drive, because both teams have decided to try to win the game with offense far more than with defense, such as this game, an adjustment to the guideline is needed.

In a super drive offensive game, the number of assists explodes well above normal and so the everyday playmakers are usually not going to dominate the assisting in these types of games as much as they need to dominate the playmaking in ordinary games. Instead of changing the percentage for different number of assists, and having different percentages for different games, which gets annoyingly complicated, you can simply establish a cap on the minimum and maximum number of assists that the two playmaking guards need to get to be able to say that they and the team have done a great job. Assists beyond that, in explosive games like this one, do not need to come from the playmaking guards in the same percentage as usual, because two players can only make so many assists, and because players who don’t normally get many assists will be automatically getting more than usual in a super drive type of game.

The Nuggets are the fastest pace team, and if they get 29 assists, it is beyond doubt that they have played a quality offensive game. In effect, super drive games are where both teams are playing the way the Nuggets normally try to play. So the most logical thing to do is to cap the playmaking guard requirement very close to this number of assists. Basing the requirement on 30 assists seems not only very reasonable, but is mathematically perfect, because 50% of 30 is exactly 15 and 2/3 of 30 is exactly 20. So in summary, the second rule or guideline for determining whether a team has a well run offense is that the top two playmaking guards should make between 1/2 and 2/3 of all assists. However, there is a cap: if the actual number of assists made exceeds 30, the rule is that the top two playmakers on the team should make between 15 and 20 assists.

So now that we have slogged through that, let’s get to the really good stuff; let’s see who had the better run offense. The top two Nuggets guards playmakers were Iverson and Carter. Iverson made 11 assists and Carter made 4 assists, for a total of 15 assists. So the Nuggets just barely made it into the range for a super drive game, which is 15-20. So you can’t say that the offense failed, but you can’t say that it greatly succeeded either, because it is better to be higher into the 15-20 range. It would have been better if Iverson and Carter had combined for 1-5 more assists.

Now let’s look at the Pistons. The top two playmaking guards were Billups and Stuckey. Billups made 10 assists and Stuckey made 6 assists. So the Pistons’ top two playmakers made 16 assists and met the minimum requirement in a super drive game plus one. The Pistons’ playmakers were 1 better than the Nuggets’ playmakers were. Is this a large difference? No, but the fact is that even this seemingly small difference is significant in a professional basketball game between two extremely talented teams. And once again, the Pistons were playing on the Nuggets turf so to speak, a very up tempo game, and they defeated the Nuggets at their own game by having their playmakers do a little better than the Nuggets’ playmakers did.

In other words, and this is an extremely important point, there is a mismatch between how the Nuggets want to play and what they are doing to play that way. It is the Nuggets and not the Pistons who want to play up tempo, and yet it was the Pistons who were better at running an up tempo game. They made 41 assists in total to just 31 for the Nuggets. And they were slightly better in terms of offensive identity, of getting playmaking from their established playmakers,

Finally, it has to be noted that the Nuggets had the guard positions reversed from the usual pattern. In the great majority of well run offenses, the point guard dominates the shooting guard in assisting. For the Pistons, the SG Hamilton made only 3 assists in this game, an almost insignificant number compared to Billups and Stuckey, who are both point guards. So Hamilton, along with both forwards and the center, were concentrating on scoring most of the time, and went for only obvious assists. Meanwhile, the Nuggets failed to win the game with their opposite approach. They had their shooting guard, Allen Iverson, make far more assists than their point guard, Anthony Carter, did. Carter is not an aggressive scorer, although he is a more efficient scorer this season than expected. But since you can’t possibly get the quantity of scoring you need to win a game from Carter, the Nuggets were, as usual, relying on Iverson for scoring too.

To make this even clearer, while the Pistons were relying on Richard Hamilton for scoring and on mostly Chauncey Billups for playmaking, the Nuggets were relying mostly on Allen Iverson for scoring and on mostly Allen Iverson for playmaking. Even someone in high school can probably understand that the team that relies on two specialized players to get two jobs done has the better chance of winning over a team that relies on just one player to get the two jobs done. Although Iverson/Carter made 15 assists while Billups/Hamilton made 13, Iverson/Carter scored 25 points while Billups/Hamilton scored 38. So the Billups/Hamilton combination was better than the Iverson/Carter combination. Had the Iverson/J.R. Smith combination been the relevant comparison, the game could have turned out differently.

The bottom line is that the Pistons out managed the Nuggets at their own type of game. They made more total assists, they had a slightly better playmaking identity, and they had the guards set up in the way that is most commonly successful, whereas the Nuggets were using the more unusual and generally less successful shooting guard as playmaker approach.

PROJECTIONS

Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 40%
Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 75%

The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 55%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West. If the Nuggets and the Warriors finish with identical records though, the Warriors will most likely be the team that makes the playoffs, not the Nuggets. This is because the tie breaker, assuming the two split their season series 2-2, will be who has the better Western Conference record, and the Warriors are 3 games ahead in the loss column on that right now.

So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot. The Suns made a poor trade, but they have been on a winning streak lately, and they have won several key games, which means they may not be in a lot of danger of falling out of the playoffs after all. Key recent Suns’ victories include a win over the Spurs on March 9 and a win over the Warriors on March 13. But it is way too early to claim that the trade was not a mistake after all and that Shaquille O’Neal will work out for the Suns.

The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a lower percentage chance than 55% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Mavericks are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, the Suns are near locks, and the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors.

PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
1. Lakers 57-25
2. Rockets 56-26
3. Hornets 54-28
4. Jazz 54-28
5. Spurs 53-29
6. Mavericks 53-29
7. Suns 53-29
8. Warriors 50-32

NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN
9. Nuggets 49-33

The Warriors are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. The schedules of the two teams are roughly equal difficulty from here on out. If the Nuggets make up the 1 1/2 games, so that the Warriors and the Nuggets finish with identical records, and the season series between them ends up tied 2-2, the Warriors are likely to get the playoff spot rather than the Nuggets, because it is likely that the Warriors will finish at least 1 game ahead of the Nuggets in Conference record, which would be the tie-breaker if the Warriors and the Nuggets split their 4 head to head games. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far.

Now that the Nuggets are 1 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are almost certainly out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games.

WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT
Wed, Mar 19 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Fri, Mar 21 Houston 10:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ LA Lakers 9:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 LA Lakers 10:30 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Portland 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 @ Denver 9:00 PM
Sun, Mar 30 Dallas 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM
Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM
Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM

NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT
Wed, Mar 19 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:30 PM
Sun, Mar 23 @ Toronto 3:30 PM
Mon, Mar 24 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Thu, Mar 27 Dallas 10:30 PM
Sat, Mar 29 Golden State 9:00 PM
Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM
Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM
Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM
Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM
Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM
Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM
Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM

At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 10-5 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 9-6 will probably not be good enough and 8-7 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 11-4 in their last 15 games.

If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 7%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 93% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME
Allen Iverson: suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. X-rays were negative, and he remains probable for the 76’ers game on March 19.

PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 32 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season.

PISTONS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
All Pistons on the roster were available.

ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of March 19, 2008

The Nuggets are under a GREEN ALERT, on account of the following problems.

NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES
1. Nene illness 14 points

SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS
None.

BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008
EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR
At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following:

1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head.
2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season.
3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans.

The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error:

Allen Iverson: 32-42
Carmelo Anthony: 30-42
Marcus Camby: 28-38
Kenyon Martin: 24-32
J.R. Smith: 22-34
Linas Kleiza: 16-28
Eduardo Najera: 16-24
Chucky Atkins: 14-22
Anthony Carter: 12-20
Yakhouba Diawara: 0-14
Taurean Green: 0-10
Steven Hunter: 0-10

Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are usually charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing below their minimum minutes on a repeated basis.

EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME:

Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 3 points
J.R. Smith: Underplayed, 4 points

If you think this is bad, think again. This current toll of playing time errors is actually light by Karl’s standards.

4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. Guess what? This problem appeared in this game, and did in fact help cause the Nuggets to lose.

Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not.

In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense.

How good your defense is is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks.

This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 3 Points. Obviously, this didn’t hurt the Nuggets much while they scored 120 points against the Pistons, which is a good defensive team.

INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 3 Points.

TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 27, which constitutes GREEN ALERT.

GREEN ALERT (20-29): There are minor problems whose total impact is very small. There is very little effect on the team’s ability to win games against teams from any level.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS
All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting a difference.

IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME
The alert status system is still relatively new, but a preliminary estimate of what the game points advantage will be for each 15 points of alert status points difference has been made, and that estimate is 3-5 points. For now we will use 4 points for each 15 alert status points. The Home court advantage has also been estimated to be 3-5 points and we use 4 points for it. The extra rest advantage is very uncertain, and would differ a little from team to team, but it must be at least as much as the home court advantage. For now, until we can study it more, we will use 4 points for the extra rest advantage. In summary, we are using 4 points for each of the three outside factors.

OBSERVATIONS ON PISTONS STATUS
Every single player on the roster was available, and Flip Saunders is a quality coach, and the Pistons have a very nicely constructed lineup, so the best estimate is that the Pistons alert status was NO Alert, and that they were roughly 15 points or 1 level better off than the Nuggets for this game. The Pistons were home. Neither team was playing on back to back nights. In summary, the Pistons had about an 8 point edge over the Nuggets due to outside factors. They won by 16, so they still would have won even without the outside advantages.

OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS
George Karl has been doing well with the rotations lately; no one is benched who should not be, and the offense has been in super drive against poor and average defensive teams. All of these things have helped to push the alert status down to GREEN Alert.

Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time.

The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but there is no sign that that will become a reality. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams.

The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.

RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Pistons 10
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Pistons 9

Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 37
Pistons Non-Starters Points: 56

Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 5
Pistons Non-Starters Rebounds: 21

Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 5
Pistons Non-Starters Assists: 14

THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME
None of the players who played 6 or minutes were garbage time only players. The Nuggets did not recognize garbage time in this game, the Pistons recognized the final 3 minutes of the game as garbage time. Coach Flip Saunders put forward one more non-starter than did George Karl, giving him an extra wild card chance to do damage to the Nuggets. It wasn’t needed.

It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. Right now he is forced to, because pushing J.R. Smith below 10 minutes is out of the question the way he is playing, and there is a huge mess at PG which requires Karl to play 2 official point guards for much more than 10 minutes each. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also.

The Pistons non-starters utterly destroyed the Nuggets’ non-starters, 56-37 in points, 21-5 in rebounds, and 14-5 in assists. This is commonly what you see when the Nuggets’ simple approach to playing basketball comes up against a team that employs strategies and tactics to a greater extent, and against a team that has integrated it’s non-starters into the overall offense better than have the Nuggets.

STARTERS
Points: Nuggets 83 Pistons 80
Rebounds: Nuggets 28 Pistons 27
Assists: Pistons 28 Nuggets 26

The Nuggets starters narrowly defeated the Pistons starters in scoring 83-80, and in rebounding, 28-27. The Pistons starters narrowly defeated the Nuggets starters in assisting, 28-26.

I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.

GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines

PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense:

Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.

NUGGETS-PISTONS PLAYER RATINGS
Ratings above 40 indicate superstar power performers
Ratings of 30-39 indicate star power performers.
Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers.
Ratings of 10-19 indicate role player performers.
Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players

NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS
Carmelo Anthony: Game 40.9 Season 39.0
Marcus Camby: Game 39.6 Season 32.7
Allen Iverson: Game 37.6 Season 41.1
Kenyon Martin: Game 25.5 Season 23.1
Eduardo Najera: Game 16.3 Season 13.2
J.R. Smith: Game 16.0 Season 16.5
Linas Kleiza: Game 15.2 Season 18.4
Chucky Atkins: Game 12.7 Season 10.4
Anthony Carter: Game 10.0 Season 20.0

Nene: Did Not Play-Illness

Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision

PISTONS PLAYER RATINGS
Rasheed Wallace: Game 40.5 Season 26.3
Richard Hamilton: Game 35.7 Season 28.6
Jason Maxiell: Game 34.8 Season 15.1
Jarvis Hayes: Game 31.9 Season 11.0
Chauncey Billups: Game 29.6 Season 32.2
Tayshaun Prince: Game 28.1 Season 24.0
Rodney Stuckey: Game 25.9 Season 11.4
Antonio McDyess: Game 17.4 Season 20.7
Amir Johnson: Game 10.5 Season 9.3
Juan Dixon: Game 5.8 Season 7.6

NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS:
The remarkable thing about the Nuggets in this game is that nobody was well above normal or well below normal except for Carter, who was only half as productive as usual. It was as if the Nuggets all set out to play their average game for this season so far, no better and no worse. Camby, Martin, and Najera were slightly above normal, while Iverson and Kleiza were slightly below normal. Anthony and J.R. Smith were almost exactly normal. Atkins cooled off after several hot games in a row.

The Nuggets’ power performers for the game were the same as the power performers for the season: Anthony, Camby, and Iverson. The Pistons had 4 power performers: Wallace, Hamilton, Maxiell, and Hayes.

Among players who were key role players or better, the Pistons had 7 while the Nuggets had only 4.

SF Jarvis Hayes was more than 3 times more productive than usual, while PG Rodney Stuckey and PF Jason Maxiell were more than twice as productive as usual.

PF Wallace was half again more productive than usual, while SG Hamilton was about 1/4 more productive than usual.

SF Prince was slightly more productive than usual while PG Billups and C McDyess were slightly less productive than usual.

Among the low minutes players, neither PF Johnson nor SG Dixon were substantially better or worse than average.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.

This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.

In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.

SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster

NUGGETS-PISTONS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.

1. Jarvis Hayes, Det 1.876
2. Amir Johnson, Det 1.500…Johnson played only 7 minutes.
3. Chauncey Billups, Det 1.410
4. Rasheed Wallace, Det 1.350
5. Richard Hamilton, Det 1.322
6. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.319
7. Marcus Camby, Den 1.238
8. Rodney Stuckey, Det 1.233
9. J.R. Smith, Den 1.143
10. Jason Maxiell, Det 1.088
11. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.063
12. Tayshaun Prince, Det 1.041
13. Allen Iverson, Den 0.940
14. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.800
15. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.776
16. Antonio McDyess, Det 0.725
17. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.706
18. Anthony Carter, Den 0.435
19. Juan Dixon, Det 0.363

OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The best player on the court was Jarvis Hayes of the Pistons, who reached the rarely reached “amazing happens” level. There were two Pistons superstars: Billups and Johnson in limited minutes.

There were 5 star-plus players: Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, and Rodney Stuckey for the Pistons, and Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby for the Nuggets. Jason Maxiell for Detroit and J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin for the Nuggets were plain old stars.

Among the 11 players who were stars or better, the Pistons had 7 and the Nuggets had 4. One of these 7 Pistons was limited minutes.

Prince was outstanding and just barely missed star. Iverson was outstanding for the Nuggets.

Kleiza for the Nuggets was very good. Najera and Atkins were good for the Nuggets, while McDyess was good for the Pistons.

Carter was very poor for the Nuggets, while Dixon was extremely poor for the Pistons. Among players who were mediocre or worse, each team had only 1.

NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.

Anthony Carter: +0
Kenyon Martin: -2
Allen Iverson: -7
Chucky Atkins: -8
Carmelo Anthony: -10
J.R. Smith: -11
Marcus Camby: -12
Linas Kleiza: -13
Eduardo Najera: -17

NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.

Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 13, Team 0, Anthony 2, Atkins 0, Camby 3, Carter 1, Iverson 3, Kleiza 1, Martin 2, Najera 1, Smith 0

Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 19, Anthony 3, Atkins 1, Camby 3, Carter 2, Iverson 0, Kleiza 2, Martin 2, Najera 4, Smith 2

Anthony Carter played 26 minutes and was 2/5 and 1/1 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 4 assists.

Chucky Atkins played 19 minutes and was 3/5 and 1/3 on 3’s for 7 points, and he made 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block.

Eduardo Najera played 21 minutes and was 4/8 and 2/5 on 3’s for 10 points, and he made 3 assists and 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 21 minutes and was 3/5, 2/4 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 10 points, and he made 3 rebounds.

Allen Iverson played for most of the game, 41 minutes, and was 5/11 and 10/13 from the line for 20 points, and he made 11 assists, 2 steals, and 2 rebounds.

Kenyon Martin played 30 minutes and was 7/11 and 2/3 from the line for 16 points, and he made 4 steals, 2 rebounds, and 1 block.

J.R. Smith played 15 minutes and was 4/7 and 2/4 on 3’s for 10 points, and he made 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 rebound.

Marcus Camby played 33 minutes and was 7/9 and 1/2 from the line for 15 points, and he made 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal.

Carmelo Anthony played 35 minutes and was 8/15, 2/3 on 3’s, and 9/12 from the line for 27 points, and he made 5 assists, 3 steals, and 2 rebounds.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Wednesday, March 19 in Philadelphia to play the 76’ers at 5 pm mountain time. The Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights, but the 76’ers will not be, so the 76’ers will have both the home court and the extra rest advantages.