Real Team Ratings as of November 27, 2008

As of November 27, 2008
The User Guide Follows the Ratings

1 Los Angeles Lakers 19.7
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 13.3
3 Boston Celtics 12.7
4 Orlando Magic 6.0
5 Indiana Pacers 5.9
6 Denver Nuggets 5.8
7 Houston Rockets 5.8
8 New Orleans Hornets 5.1
9 Dallas Mavericks 3.9
10 Phoenix Suns 2.5
11 Philadelphia 76ers 1.7
12 Miami Heat 1.6
13 Milwaukee Bucks 1.2
14 Portland Trail Blazers 0.7
15 Utah Jazz 0.3
16 San Antonio Spurs -0.3
17 Atlanta Hawks -0.6
18 Chicago Bulls -0.6
19 Detroit Pistons -0.7
20 Charlotte Bobcats -2.4
21 Toronto Raptors -2.5
22 Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5
23 Memphis Grizzlies -5.8
24 New York Knicks -6.5
25 Golden State Warriors -7.3
26 New Jersey Nets -8.1
27 Washington Wizards -9.9
28 Sacramento Kings -10.5
29 Los Angeles Clippers -12.0
30 Oklahoma City Thunder -13.9

More and more, the Quest for the Ring is putting nicely completed and very detailed spreadsheets on the internet so our readers can see details that we would never have time to post. Here is where you can find the spreadsheet for the November 27, 2008 Real Team Ratings:

Real Team Ratings as of November 27, 2008--Spreadsheet With Details

REAL TEAM RATINGS
USER GUIDE FOR REAL TEAM RATINGS
Last updated November 27, 2008

This is the most accurate ranking possible. This system, although still very young, has already obtained a great track record. This system extremely accurately predicted the entire course of the 2008 playoffs.

These rankings start with all-inclusive offensive and defensive efficiency statistics that are adjusted for pace. Specifically, we take points scored per 100 possessions for offensive efficiency and points given up per 100 possessions for defensive efficiency.

We then adjust for schedule difficulty by using a scaled by rank index based on the combined average winning percentage of all of the opponents that a team has played. The indices used in the schedule adjustment are calibrated to the month of the season that has been reached; lessor adjustments are made as the season goes along, because the schedules equal out more and more as the season goes along.

We then carefully overweight a little for the quality of a team's defending, which is at a premium in the playoffs. We call this the Adjustment for Defending.

Due to the strength of schedule adjustment and due to the overweighting of defending, the overall team ratings are NOT simply a report on how well the teams have done this season. This is because the primary objective of this system is to reveal how well each team is projected to do in the playoffs.

THE LATER IN THE SEASON IT IS THE MORE ROCK SOLID THE RATINGS ARE
The earlier in the season it is, the less reliable the ratings are, both because teams have not played the majority of the other teams yet, and because many teams use November and even December as a kind of extended pre-season: they use the early weeks of the season to try out various lineups, strategies, and plays to see which ones work best. As a result, Real Team Ratings after January 1 and especially after February 1 are going to be substantially more rock solid and able to tell you what is going to happen in the playoffs than are ratings coming before the end of the year.

PREDICT FOR KNOWLEDGE OR FUN BUT DO NOT GAMBLE ANY MONEY
Do not under any circumstances use these ratings to gamble with valuable money by betting on the outcome of games. The reasons this would be foolish are explained shortly.

You can predict games for fun but you are a fool if you think you can use these ratings or any other ratings to predict the outcome of games well enough to win money from betting money on outcomes. Do not bet any money on the outcome of basketball games. The remainder of this guide is for those who want to predict games for fun or for knowledge development.

The Real Team Rating differentials between teams can be used as crucial starting points for approximations of expected score difference when any two teams play. Though the ratings are a critical starting point, the outside factors below absolutely must be considered if you are seriously trying to predict the outcome of games in advance. Unfortunately, some of these factors are not only unavailable anywhere including here as of yet, they are difficult to estimate out of the blue, Therefore, to repeat, you should definitely not think that you can use this web site to make money by betting on basketball games. The injury, player slumps, and coaching differential factors, especially, because all of these are so hard to estimate, make it impossible to be truly accurate in predicting games.

OUTSIDE FACTORS THAT EFFECT GAMES
1. Home Court Advantage 4-6 points, depending on team.
2. Extra Rest Advantage 5-7 points
3. Injuries and Player Slumps 0-15 points, rarely more than 10 points. Player slumps are rare, and are defined as major slumps among the best 6 players on the team.
4. Coaching Quality Differential 0-9 points, rarely more than 7 points.
5. The "Human Nature Adjustment": Since it is human nature for basketball players to ease up a little bit if they have a big lead over the other team, you would be foolish to assume that large predicted differences (greater than 10 points) will actually play out in real life. A rough rule of thumb to use is to take only one half of all predicted margin of victory points above 10 as viable for the actual game. For example, suppose that after you have considered the ratings and all of the outside factors, you have an estimate that the Lakers will beat the Clippers by 40 points. You would be wise to take only 1/2 of the margin greater than 10, which would be one half of 40-10, or 1/2 of 30, which is 15, added to the 10, which yields an actual prediction of the Lakers beating the Clippers by 25 points.

FULL EXAMPLE ON PREDICTING
Team X has a Real Team Rating of 15 and Team Y has a Real Team Rating of -5. The starting point for predicting the outcome is that Team X will beat Team Y by 20. Now you estimate all the outside factors:

1. Team Y is home: the predicted team X margin of victory is reduced by 5, to 15.
2. Team Y is playing on back to back nights, while Team X is not: the predicted Team X margin of victory is increased by 6, to 21.
3. Neither team has any major player slumps. But Team X is badly banged up (-10 points) while Team Y has only one injury to a bench player (-1 point): the predicted Team X margin of victory decreases by 9, to 12.
4. The Coach of Team X is on point with hihs team better than the Coach of Team Y is with his team: the predicted Team X margin of victory increases by 3, to 15.
5. Human Nature Adjustment: the predicted margin of victory is reduced by one half of anything in excess of ten points. The predicted Team X margin of victory over Team Y is reduced from 15 to 12.5.

So in this example, the final result is that Team X is projected to beat Team Y by about 12.5 points.

Fast Break: The Nuggets Have Not Understood the Importance of the Draft and of Drafted Players for A Long, Long Time

The Nuggets have fewer players that they drafted still playing for them than do most other teams. They have only two: Carmelo Anthony and Nene. At the opposite extreme, the Los Angeles Lakers have about a half a dozen. Other top NBA franchises also have the great habit of drafting and developing young players, such as the Jazz, the Spurs, and the Cavaliers. We will be doing a Special Report here at the Quest for the Ring during the course of the current season: "How the Best NBA Franchises Make Good Use of the Draft and of Their Drafted Players."

Did you know there is another good inside player that the Nuggets have lost in recent years, besides Anthony McDyess, due to their overly aggressive and overly ambitious trading activities? It's none other than Leon Powe, backup power forward to Kevin Garnett. So he is now a World Champion with the Boston Celtics. He was undrafted, but was first considered and rejected by the Nuggets before he moved on to the Celtics.

In fact, amazingly, the present Nuggets ownership and management has shown almost no interest in retaining and developing players that they have drafted. And at the least since George Karl started with the Nuggets in January 2005, undrafted players who might turn out to be great reserves have been given very perfunctory tryouts if you know what I am saying. All of which to me is another huge warning signal that this franchise is becoming due for another visit to the cellar of the Northwest Division if not the cellar of the entire Western Conference. Drafting and using drafted players well alone is not going to win you a Championship, but I highly doubt that you can win one while mostly ignoring the draft and the development of drafted players.

I know, I am the ultimate Mr. Negative regarding the Nuggets these days, but as far as I am concerned, if you think you are going to continue on with George Karl as if nothing is wrong, give away Marcus Camby, and then trade away Allen Iverson while calling him a poor point guard when you never asked him to play the position, you deserve a whole heap load of negativity. You deserve more negatively than even I can dish out, in fact.

Incidentally, McDyess, who embarrassed the Nuggets recently by refusing to play for them because of how roughly he was traded away off the team in 2002, was a virtual draft pick of the Nuggets in 1995. He was technically drafted by the Clippers, but never played for them, because the Nuggets acquired McDyess immediately after the Clippers drafted him via a trade.

McDyess seems almost certain as we speek to return to the Pistons, from wence he came in the Iverson for Billups trade.

It seems that this pattern of the Nuggets seeing the draft and drafted players as unimportant goes back more than a decade. This would be another reason why the Nuggets have been unable to win a playoff series.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Happy Holidays and Please Don't Get Rained On

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I give thanks for the many, many improvements and expansions I am in the process of implementing here at the Quest for the Ring. It's not the same old one team blog anymore! People will not believe how cool this thing is going to be once all the editing and publishing background work is done and it is firing on all cylinders. Come on Pistons, you get firing now!

May you and your family dodge all the financial high crimes and misdemeanors raining down on everyone's parade, if you know what I am saying. Heaven knows if it's raining I always get rained on, but that's another story. Happy holidays to all.

Despite the Nuggets Outstanding 2008-09 Start, the Time in the Sun Came and Went for This Franchise

Here is another short but important writing from late July, done not long before I had to suspend even short basketball writings for a couple of months. I am posting this anti-Nuggets article regardless of the fact that the Nuggets are off to a much better start in 2008-09 than almost anyone thought without Marcus Camby and now without Allen Iverson. I will of course have a whole lot to say about this in the near future; please be patient. Suffice it to say for now that the Nuggets have shone in just a few games so far right now, and during the time of the year that is sort of a purgatory between the pre-season and the true regular season, which starts about the 1st of December.

Much more later. Here is the late July short but important article:

To remain fans of this mess of a franchise, the Nuggets fans at this point have to assume that the Nuggets will hit it out of the park with their roster moves in the 12-13 months after the Camby giveaway. The Camby haters and Kroenke excusers are thinking, and practically assuming, that the Nuggets will automatically replace Camby, Iverson, and whoever else with players who are just as good or better.

I would snap out of your dream if I were you. You don’t simply replace players such as Camby and Iverson with hopes, assumptions and flexibility. And then you still have that little problem with the coaching.

Those who are glad that Camby is gone miss the point of why the owner of the Nuggets paid the luxury tax in the first place: to get a team that you can not get in the normal everyday wheeling and dealing, when you are limited to being at or very close to the salary cap.

SUMMARY
Fantasyland: The Nuggets will use their “flexibility” to end up with a team in 2009-10 or the year later at the latest just as good or better than they had before giving away Camby.
Reality: The Nuggets are not going to have a team as good as they had in 2007-08 for many, many years, probably for at least 10 years in fact.

I am afraid that for Nuggets fans, the time in the sun came and went.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

More in Defense of the Defense of Marcus Camby

From late July 2008, more forum writings that did not make it to Quest for the Ring until now.....

Two more quick but important observations:

1. I haven't forgotten about Mr. Karl being also responsible for the Nuggets raising the white flag. Had the Nuggets won a playoff series, as they could have and should have, then I very much doubt that Mr. Kroenke and company would have accepted the Clippers offer of a bag of chips for Marcus Camby. And the Nuggets one year payroll drop would probably have been under that 8-10% ruination level. When all was said and done, it took the combination of Karl's bad coaching and Kroenke's financial cut and run to sink the Nuggets powerful effort to become a real contender in the NBA. One of them without the other would not have been enough to ruin the project.

It seems very likely that the front office was caught in the middle between the two men making the big mistakes.

2. The Clippers are playing Camby at power forward, which is smart for them, and which is a reminder of how badly the Nuggets were hurt by the unavailability of Nene, a genuine post player. As I said frequently in my reports, Camby at center without a post player at PF is a potential defensive and/or a potential offensive problem. But Camby with a post playing PF is money. Camby with Nene would have been roughly the same type of combo that Kaman and Camby will be in LA.

But even without Nene, Camby was clearly neither the offensive nor the defensive liability that his critics claim he was, because the Nuggets were the fastest pace team, and Camby's occasional point guard tendencies, and his relative reluctance to get alot of finishes at the hoop were not big offensive problems for the Nuggets, as several other key players were not shy about taking it to the rim: Iverson, Anthony, Smith, Martin, and Kleiza especially. Indeed, one of the problems with the Nuggets offense was that overall they took it to the rim too much, which made them relatively easy to defend.

Defensively, the gripes about Camby are mostly putting style above substance, which is almost always a mistake to me. Generally, those claiming Camby was not truly a great defensive player are going to be those preferring the type of defender who camps out in the paint and simply blocks with his body, fouls, and intimidates his way to being a defensive force. Camby committed very, very few fouls, whereas the style that Camby's critics want requires for success that the refs assist by letting a lot of fouls go, something which does not happen every game. In other words, Camby's style works regardless of how the refs are calling the game, whereas the style his critics want works only if the refs let some fouls go uncalled.

Also, the type of defender Camby's critics want may be a little better against some centers and power forwards than is Camby, but Camby's style is far better against high scoring guards coming into the paint.

The 2007-08 Nuggets were the 10th best defense in the NBA ranked by defensive efficiency, which is number of points given up per 100 possessions. This is defense adjusted for pace. The Nuggets, to be exact, gave up 107.5 points per 100 possessions.

If you are right about MC, they will give up at least slightly fewer points in the new season, assuming that whoever replaces Camby has a more common style for a center, which is very likely. If I'm right, the Nuggets will give up more points per 100 possessions, and will be lower than the 10th best defense adjusted for pace. So we shall see when the season comes.

But we might not be able to tell for sure if the Nuggets make big changes in their overall style, in their pace, or if one or more players are a lot better or a lot worse defensively than last year.

Defensive Efficiency 2007-08
Nuggets 107.5 10th
Clippers 110.8 19th

2008-09???

I won't forget to revive this topic.

And we can also compare Kaman/Camby to ???/K-mart with the +/-, compare the front courts as a whole, and compare the Camby alone +/- to the Hunter or ? +/- alone. It's going to be interesting to see which wins out in this case: style or production as shown by statistics (substance)?

The Camby critics can not have it both ways. If they are really serious about Camby being overrated, then his replacement and KMart should be at least a little better than Kaman/Camby. And certainly the Hunter or ??? alone +/- should be better than the Camby alone +/- if the Camby critics are right.

Again, I will not forget to bring this topic back when this can be decided.

2007-08 NUGGETS CAMBY VS KMART
Camby / Najera / C Anthony .256/minute; +7.68 per 30 minutes
KMart / Najera / C Anthony Not in the top 50 3-player combos

Camby / Najera / Kleiza .345/minute; +10.35 per 30 minutes
KMart / Najera / Kleiza .123/minute; +3.69 per 30 minutes

Camby / C Anthony / Kleiza .014/minute; +3.12 per 30 minutes
KMart / C Anthony / Kleiza Not in the top 50 3-player combos

This disproves the idea, common among the Camby critics, that KMart without Camby in the game is better than Camby without KMart in the game. No, by a wide margin, Camby without KMart in the game was better.

Look, just as the TE is an accounting rule for the salary cap, and hardly means that the Nuggets get a free player to make up for the Camby giveaway, which those excusing the Camby giveaway are implying, with all their hopeful statements regarding the TE and how it can be used and how it can be traded, and this, and that, and the other thing. All the trade exception (TE) is is a relatively complicated rule for going above the salary cap. You have to want to go above the cap to use it, which right now seems to be the last thing the Nuggets want to do.

More broadly, cap space is like me waking up on a cloudy morning in a drought and hoping it's going to rain. It might rain, it might not. Just as with cap space, it might produce a good team, it might not. You don't automatically have a good team coming to you just because you have a big chunk of cap space coming up. Especially since there are 29 other teams competing for the same key players you are trying to get.

To go along with ocassional trades and off season acquisitions, you absolutely must consistently get what you need in the draft, and you must also have very good or outstanding coaching for your existing roster players, or you will never be a true contender.

You know, there are sports where style is more important than substance: figure skating, diving, gymnastics.

But I have never once seen those judges with the signs with the numbers on them on the sidelines in a bball game, raising their signs showing their rating of various scores and various stops. lol.

This is what needs to go in my signature I guess, a reminder that many of those who disagree with me are secretly wanting the style scores to come into the NBA!

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Marcus Camby's Reaction to Being Traded for Almost Nothing

The full article is here. Here are the most important excerpts:

Yes, he was personally offended by how the Denver Nuggets handled his trade. Yes, he had told the Denver media he was shocked and insulted when told of it. No misquotes there.

That, after 12 years in the league, the Nuggets disrespected his value. The question was put to him directly. Did he think they gave him away for nothing? He took a deep breath and answered: "Yes."

The part he didn't like, in addition to terms of the trade that made it look to the guy on the street as if they let him go for a Snickers bar, was how it was handled.

"Nobody called, nobody said anything," he said. "The day before I was told, I was with plenty of team people who could have given me a heads-up. I found out when my agent called me."

The Clippers, of course, consider this was a great acquisition. Camby averaged 13.1 rebounds and 3.6 blocks a game last season, along with 9.1 points on a team that had more gunners than a field full of duck hunters. Dunleavy said Camby will be the power forward alongside incumbent center, and strong rebounder, Chris Kaman.

Camby is especially adept at helping out and clogging the middle on defense, a skill born of necessity on the Nuggets, a team that features several players who have never guarded anything closely except their wallets. We won't name names, but two of them are spelled Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony.

Dunleavy laughed when Camby talked about his former teammates, how much he will miss them and how much they said they'd miss him.

"They should miss him," the coach said. "He saved their [butts] every night."

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

For the Record: Nuggets' Management was Aware that Getting So Little for Camby Was a Dumb Thing to do, Basketball-Wise

So many have excused the Nuggets franchise for getting almost nothing in return for Marcus Camby that in late July I made sure I posted as follows that the Nuggets' management itself was aware that this was a poor thing to do.

Here are excerpts from an interesting article about the Clippers. The whole article is here.

The Los Angeles Clippers introduced forward/center Marcus Camby on Monday at STAPLES Center. Acquired from the Denver Nuggets for a conditional second-round pick, Camby was still infuriated with what felt like a betrayal by his former team.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are very excited about their prospects this coming season.

"We have bigs that have mobility. We have bigs that block shots and rebound. We've got a big in Chris Kaman who can score in the post against anybody," said Coach Mike Dunleavy. "Marcus and Chris, I think they fit very well together."

In addition to the Camby acquisition, the Clippers have recently added former All-Star Baron Davis, rookie shooting guard Eric Gordon and have an offer sheet out to Golden State Warriors' forward/guard Kelenna Azubuike.

The Clippers didn't dwell long on the loss of marquee forwards Elton Brand and Corey Maggette, making quick use of their cap room to bring in two well-established veterans in Camby and Davis.

After Davis followed through on his promise to sign with the club, LA called the Nuggets to see if Camby was available.

"When you have a lot of cap space, the first thing you do is you hit teams with luxury tax situations. If you'd like some cap relief, we can talk," said Dunleavy. "They countered with another player, a first round pick, all this stuff. We told them we had no interest - just Camby."

LA moved on and were on the verge of signing an expensive restricted free agent to an offer sheet (thought to be Atlanta forward Josh Smith, although unconfirmed.)

"We took one more shot at Denver to see. We let them know we're pulling the trigger tomorrow," said Dunleavy of last week's dealings. "They came back and said they would do it. I've got a bad knee but I jumped pretty high when I heard that news."

The plan is to start Camby at power forward alongside Kaman at center. According to the coach, the starting lineup projects to include guard Cuttino Mobley, forward Al Thornton and Davis.

"I'm not here to replace Elton Brand. Elton is a terrific ballplayer," said Camby. "We're two different types of players. He does great things that I can't do. I do some things that he possibly can't do. I just want to make things work.

"We have a lot of guys that can put the ball in the basket. I'm not coming here to try and steal any shots. [b]I'm just going to do what I do: Pass the ball, play solid defense and be accountable on and off the court."

Camby fits their present needs and has a cap friendly contract that expires before the summer of 2010. The team believes they can be competitive for at least the next two seasons - but it doesn't hurt to have spending power the year LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire and host of other high level players become unrestricted free agents.

The Clipper feel Camby is the perfect fit.

"The leadership he brings - his presence on the court: the best defensive player in the league, top rebounder, top shot blocker, his playoff experience and maturity," extolled Roeser. "He's been in the playoffs eight of his 12 years. Between Baron Davis and Marcus Camby you have 110 games of playoff experience. Our goal is to get back in the playoffs and be competing and we wanted players with experience doing just that."

It's easy to remember a more spendthrift Clipper organization of the past few decades but in recent years, owner Donald Sterling has shown a willingness to invest in the team's future. To that end, the Clippers are confident they have a shot at one of the eight playoff seeds in the Western Conference.

"[Baron's] happy about being here. I'm happy about being here," said Camby. "With that mix between youth and veteran leadership I think this team can definitely go far - but with me saying that we all know we have a lot of hard work to do and that starts day one of training camp."

'Hopefully it means we're a great rebounding, shot blocking team which allows a point guard like Baron Davis to get more possessions and to be able to attack and get out in the open court - and we've got some guys who can fly," said Dunleavy. "Kaman is one of the faster big men in the league- Marcus is very fleet of foot. I think it just bodes well for or team - our chemistry, offensively, defensively I think he's just a great fit for our team."

You can see that the Nuggets, eager to cut payroll, tried to get a first rounder for Camby, but were told by the Clippers to take a hike. The Denver owner must have then ordered the Denver front office to give away Camby for basically nothing! Ouch!

For the record, it appears that the Nuggets' management was aware that getting so little for Camby was a dumb thing, basketball-wise, for the Nuggets to do.


















Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

More on Why the Nuggets Failed Basketball Economics During the 2008 Off Season

As a summa cum laude economics graduate from a school viewed as being in a group of schools that are cousins to the Ivy League Schools, I am qualified to grade the Nuggets in Economics. As of now, unless they improve what they are doing, I give them an F. This article is more or less a part 2 to the foundational article on this subject: A Basketball Economics Lesson. Incidentally, the originally intended snappy title for that article was "Nuggets Fail Economics, Which will Cost Them Dearly." Laugh out loud.

If economics bores you to death, so you are not interested in details, I can sum it up by using an analogy.

I decide I want to make money from a hot restaurant franchise, a restaurant that is so popular that almost all franchise owners make a nice profit even in a down economy, so I decide to buy a franchise license and build a new restaurant, but then 18-24 months later in a down economy I decide I went hog wild with my money and I decide to sell. If this is what I do, I am going to take an unnecessary, big, big loss. Because I will have paid big acquisition bucks for the franchise and to get the building built, but I will not have waited long enough for my particular restaurant to become popular.

That's roughly what the Nuggets did during off-season 2008. Outside of a depression, its spelled d-u-m-b, and it rhymes with rum.

Had the Nuggets not done this, there would have been by summer of 2009 if not sooner some more Artests interested in playing in Denver at a bargain.

Even more so than the most popular, successful restaurants, pro sports teams are well equipped to survive and prosper to some extent even in bad economies. For this reason, you don't see other owners destructing their teams at this time due to poor economic conditions. The better sports franchises are generally still profitable in poor economies. So the Nuggets can not be entirely excused for what they did during 2008 by referencing the bad economy.

Especially since Denver for the last 50 years has been one of the most successful local economies in North America, and is right now one of a relatively small number of areas that are still gaining some jobs from month to month! So there was little excuse for when Nuggets owner Stanley Kroenke panicked during 2009. Indeed, Mr. Kroenke should have sold the team outright rather than panic the way he did.

Anything more than a 5% cut but less than an 7.5% cut in payroll is a D or D- grade. Anything more than an 8% cut in payroll is an F. And the Nuggets are cutting payroll by more than 8% in one year.

THE TOTAL REBUILDING FROM SCRATCH EXCEPTION TO THE USUAL 8% RULE
Now some might get confused and think that what the Nuggets have been doing during 2008 is alright because they are rebuilding the team. Well, aside from the fact that they have publicly insisted that they are not at all rebuilding the team, the Nuggets do not come close to meeting all of the requirements that are needed to justify a massive and quick offloading of salary.

In order to justify a total rebuilding from scratch and thus to justify getting rid of players quickly even if little is received in return for them, most and preferably all of the following requirements need to be met:

1. You have truly reached a dead end; you can not make the playoffs despite the fact you have a capped out payroll.
2. In the previous season, you did not make the playoffs.
3. In the most recent complete season, your team was worse than the year before in at least one and preferably both among offensive and defensive efficiency (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions.)
4. Your drafting and/or your coaching is subpar, so there is no hope for improving things from those important factors.
5. You are freely electing to start completely from scratch. Even if you qualify under almost all or all of the other qualifications, starting from scratch and going for huge, big name players is not the only strategy available, and is still not the best strategy to follow even in that situation, though it may not be a bad strategy for franchises who know they can not excel with quality drafting and coaching. For one thing, it is a gambling type strategy, because you don't know for sure if you are going to get in competition with the other 29 teams at least one and preferably two superstars who will not be injured and who will not go into an early career decline. Strategies involving an element of gambling are never as good as the best strategies that involve no gambling at all, though if you are truly down and out, and you don't know how to do any optimal non-gambling strategies, a gambling strategy may be just as good as the best non-gambling strategies.
6. You are willing to accept a few certain 20-win type seasons and the possibility, if your big money buys nothing but injury and other troubles, that you will be a losing team for many, many years.
7. You are not a franchise that all the superstars are trying to avoid, and you have at least some inside information that at least one and preferably two superstar (top 30) NBA players will come on to your team when you are able to offer them a mega salary from all your salary cap room.
8. There is a large field of superstars and stars who will be available when you are ready to spend your big salary cap room.

The Nuggets failed to qualify under (1), (2), (3), and most likely (7).

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

"Marcus Camby: The Good Old Days": A Quest for the Ring Custom Movie

Marcus Camby, one of the best two players on the 2007-08 Nuggets, had the Nuggets back and made them respectable while they indulged in too much high speed street ball with the likes of JR Smith, Allen Iverson, and Carmelo Anthony. Camby kept the level of craziness within reason, and the Nuggets will be lost without him.

Part of one of the most talented starting five in history, Marcus Camby is one of the best blockers, rebounders, and all around defensive players of all time. Among many, many other awards, he notably won the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year Award.

Thanks for holding down the fort MC. In America, we all come, and then we all have to go every once in a while. One.

MARCUS CAMBY: THE GOOD OLD DAYS: A Quest for the Ring Custom Movie

Marcus Camby, Old Days from Quest For the Ring on Vimeo.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Allen Iverson Video: Every Game Like It's the Last

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Carmelo Anthony Mix to Onyx: "Slam" Rap Song

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.