The 2011-12 Denver Nuggets Preview: They Fell Off a Cliff, are now at Best an Average Team, and the Devastation Could Easily Have Been Even Worse
EDITORIAL NOTES
Originally we were planning to first produce a Report called “How to Beat the Denver Nuggets and Teams like Them Even on Their Home Court”. The Nuggets take full advantage of the high altitude in Denver and they also use some fairly cheap and easy to deal with tricks to pick up a lot of easy wins in Denver. But if you know what they do and what their tricks are, you can beat the Nuggets in Denver now that they have lost a lot of above average players.
Then we realized that before we explain how you beat them in Denver that we should first explain exactly who the 2011-12 Nuggets are and how they are degraded from 2010-11 and other recent years. And that we should explain how they fell off the cliff from last year to this year (although regular QFTR readers probably already know a lot of the reasons). Then for awhile we were planning to combine the two explanations (who they are now and how to beat them) into a series. But then, and although it was a close call, we decided that it would be a little better to put the two Reports out as two separate ones. But even though they won’t officially be a series, this Report and the one that will be appearing shortly on how you defeat the 2012 Nuggets should loosely anyway be considered a series. So you should really read both of them and not just one or the other.
So let’s proceed to break down the 2011-12 Nuggets and how and why they fell off the cliff from last year and from recent years....
FLASHBACK TO AUGUST 2010: THE NUGGETS FIRE THE EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR
On August 3, 2010, General Manager Marc Warkentien was fired by the Nuggets ownership. Warkentien’s official title from when he was hired in 2006 until when he was fired in 2010 was Vice President of Basketball Operations. He did an extremely good job for the Nuggets. (If you don’t believe me, consider that he was NBA League Executive of the Year for 2008-09.) But he could not get a contract extension in 2010 because the Nuggets ownership was too cheap to pay what he deserved to get and/or because Warkentien and/or Warkentien’s decisions were disliked by George Karl.
Why were those the reasons for the firing? Despite being one of the richest ownerships of them all, the Nuggets ownership has been from time attempting to save some money in recent years, most likely due to the poor and scary economy. Unfortunately, many of these moves have been penny wise and pound foolish. As for Karl, the ownership of the Nuggets has been so enthralled with Karl that it seems very likely that if and when Karl ever wanted a general manager to be fired that the manager would most likely be fired.
Of course, more often, and normally, it is the other way around: the coach gets fired if the manager wants him to be fired, while generally, coaches can not successfully demand that managers be fired. Make no mistake; the normal way is generally the much better way to run a team. Having the coach outrank the general manager is generally a very bad way to run a pro basketball team. The only exception would be if you knew for certain that you had one of the best basketball coaches in history, you might want to have that coach be able to overrule the manager (but not be doing so all of the time).
So to be extra clear, the reason why the NBA Executive of the Year was fired by the Nuggets was:
--Nuggets ownership wanting to save some money in a rough and scary economy.
--George Karl did not like decisions made by Warkentien or did not like Warkentien in general.
--Both of the above
Warkentien was then hired by the New York Knicks as a high level consultant in January 2011. Justice is served since the Knicks are now among the roughly eight teams who are real contenders to win The Quest for the Ring while the Nuggets are not even close.
By the way, have you ever noticed that hiring and firings in pro Sports are on average even more irrational than they are in the American economy overall? Of course, not every pro sports management and coaching hiring and firing is irrational, but a disturbingly large percentage of them are. It seems that in American pro sports team management and coaching, you don’t have job security even if you are literally one of the best managers or coaches of your type.
And also by the way, this is a good example of “information you were not supposed to know,” which is one of the newest catchy phrases we are going to use to try to raise our readership from three to four (laugh out loud, but seriously, we do have more readers than that).
And as yet another important “by the way,” always remember that one reason QFTR spends so much time perfecting and operating the Real Player Rating system is because players too are often hired or fired for irrational reasons. We want to identify as many stupid player moves as we can as time permits, and allow readers to identify more of them on their own.
GEORGE KARL UNOFFICIALLY ASSUMES GENERAL MANAGER POWERS BEGINNING IN AUGUST 2010
George Karl, who despite having a miserable playoffs record, is almost literally worshipped by the ownership, by some fans, and by many others in the Nuggets organization and beyond. When I watch a Nuggets game, I often cut the sound and just watch the game because I can’t stand all of the worshipping of George Karl that is described by the announcers and that the announcers themselves do.
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, Karl became, in the wake of the firing of the General Manager Warkentien, a sort of unofficial General Manager. He had, especially within the last year, a huge influence on player movements to and from the Nuggets. In the last year especially, Karl has been the moving force behind decisions normally made by general managers and assistants to them, and also behind decisions by players to get out of Denver.
After Warkentien was fired in August 2010, the Nuggets’ general management was shared by an official and an unofficial General Manager. The unofficial one was George Karl. The official General Manager was Masai Ujiri, who the owners were able to hire relatively cheaply because he was a younger manager who had never been a general manager before. Exact numbers are extremely difficult to find, and I have not found them, but it is believed that as of now Ujiri is one of the lowest paid general managers in the NBA.
Aside from the fact that it’s interesting information, and aside from the fact that it is an example of giving QFTR readers information they were not supposed to know, the main reason I took time to report about Warkentien is to make sure I am believed when I say that the 2011-12 Nuggets are “George Karl’s Team” lock, stock, and barrel. He doesn’t legally own the 2011-12 Nuggets, but Karl certainly owns them in the management sense and in the conversational sense of the word. Whatever happens in 2011-12 is mostly George Karl’s doing.
If for example Ricky Rubio and the Minnesota Timberwolves finish ahead of the Denver Nuggets in the Northwest Division, it will be mostly and arguably 100% Karl’s fault. I mean, the Wolves are vastly improved and Ricky Rubio will be outstanding out of the box, but given the chasm between Denver and Minnesota that existed as of June 2011, there is no way that Minnesota should be better than Denver in 2011-12. If they are, than Karl will have really and truly hosed up the Nuggets beyond all recognition. (In case you missed the message “between the lines,” QFTR suspects that the Minnesota Timberwolves actually will finish a little ahead of the Denver Nuggets in 2011-12., and what a joyous thing it will be, even more enjoyable than the Oklahoma Thunder dismantling the Nuggets in the 2011 playoffs as anticipated by QFTR.)
To some extent before then but especially since August 2010, with little if any interference from management or ownership, George Karl drove away players he didn’t like. People like Karl who put career above all else (including winning) seldom directly get rid of employees (or players). Instead they do it on the down low. They indirectly get rid of employees and players they don’t like by over many moons pressuring them and indirectly persuading them to leave.
To be specific, Karl didn’t like the personalities and/or the playing styles of the players who ended up quitting. And at the same time there were players who didn’t agree with Karl’s views and decisions who, to put it bluntly, quit the team. Those are technically two separate ways players leave a team, but obviously they are two sides of the same coin.
AMONG THE PLAYERS WHO QUIT THE NUGGETS: TWO SUPERSTARS AND A NEAR SUPERSTAR
In the last year, Carmelo Anthony, Raymond Felton, and J.R. Smith were the most notable players who quit. Felton and Smith quit mostly because they were being underrated and cheated out of playing time by Karl. Carmelo Anthony quit mostly because he correctly realized that Karl and the Nuggets were most likely never ever going to win The Quest for the Ring doing what they do. So Anthony rebooted his career by moving to the New York Knicks.
True, Anthony in his heart always wanted to play for the Knicks. For one thing, he was born and spent his early childhood in New York City. Once you are a New Yorker in your heart you are always a New Yorker to one extent or another; there is no other place like it. But Anthony even more so in his heart wants to win a Championship, and like any other rational human being could have been persuaded to stay in Denver if the Nuggets were NOT clearly a team that most likely will never win The Quest for the Ring for the next ten years rock bottom minimum. Because ten years from now Anthony’s career will be all but over. If Anthony had remained in Denver for his entire career, there is a fairly high probability that he never would have had a chance to win The Quest for the Ring. In other words, Anthony saw the handwriting on the wall (and / or he is a QFTR reader; we can dream, laugh out loud).
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, two of the former Nuggets I just mentioned are superstars and could be major components on a Championship squad. J.R. Smith may not be a superstar overall but is arguably a superstar among shooting guards, (using the easier to meet shooting guard Real Player Rating standard).
In fact, in recent years, J.R. Smith has been about as good as Jason Terry of the 2011 Quest winners Dallas Mavericks. Do you perhaps get the point before I even complete the point? Jason Terry has a high reputation, J.R. Smith has a low reputation, but in actual fact they are about the same quality in basketball terms. Yes, they do have very different playing styles and personalities, but when all is said and done they are about equal in terms of what they contribute on the hardwood.
Let’s broaden the focus and completely break down what happened to the Nuggets between 2010-11 and 2011-12…
THE NUGGETS HAVE LOST MANY SUPERSTARS IN RECENT YEARS AND, AMAZINGLY, THEY JUST LOST FOUR OF THEM IN A SINGLE YEAR
If you were to add up all of the superstars who left the Nuggets in, say, the past five years (not counting any who retired) and you could compare to other teams, you would find that the Nuggets rank at or near the top of the heap for teams losing superstars. Also, it’s very possible that the Nuggets just came close to setting or actually did set the record for “Greatest Number of Superstars on a Team that never was a True Primary Contender During any Five Year Period”. (Another idea for a brand new and interesting award from the creative minds at QFTR, laugh out loud).
True, many of the Nuggets’ superstars have been borderline ones that many do not consider to be superstars, but nevertheless, the points I am making here are accurate.
History will record that the most famous and most devastating losses in the 2006-2011 period were Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and Marcus Camby. But there were many other less famous losses.
If you just looked at Denver over the last five years, you might make the mistake of thinking it was normal for a team to be continually losing superstars. But not only is it nor normal, it proves that the team / franchise is a failure and will not be able to be primary contenders to win The Quest for the Ring either right now or for the foreseeable future. There is something very, very wrong if you get a very large number of superstars over a few years and yet you never become a true, major contender to win the Quest for the Ring.
In the very last year, there was a truly massive exodus of superstars, well in excess of what generally ever happens around the League. All told, the Nuggets had seven superstars in 2010-11 and four of them are gone for 2011-12. It’s really remarkable wreckage when you look at it rationally and in the light of day. The TNT Television network monitored the carnage and decided that there will be very few if any Nuggets games on TNT on Thursday nights this season. Thanks, TNT, for putting viewers out of their misery, laugh out loud.
Let's briefly look at the typical number of superstars on different teams. Generally, on the worst teams, on the ones that lose most of their games, there are either zero superstars or one superstar. On the teams that have losing records but are not among the absolute worst teams, there are typically one or two superstars. On teams that win roughly as many games as they lose, there are typically between one and three superstars. On teams that win more than they lose but lose in the first round of the playoffs, there are typically between two and four superstars. On the eight teams that reach the second round of the playoffs, there are typically between three and five superstars. On the very best teams, the ones that reach the Conference finals, there are typically between three and six superstars.
There are major exceptions. For example, remarkably, the 2011 Quest winning Dallas Mavericks technically had only one superstar: Dirk Nowitzki. Tyson Chandler and Jason Kidd were almost but not quite superstars. This proves that the Mavericks had to and did play very smart basketball to win the Quest over the Miami Heat, who had three superstars. The Heat had fewer superstars than average for a finals team while the Mavericks had far fewer of them. The Heat reached the 2011 Championship mostly because they had the best pro basketball player (LeBron James) and because they had two other extremely strong superstars (Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh). The Mavericks had only one strong superstar and two major stars who were close to being superstars. The Mavs reached and won the NBA finals first and foremost because they played very, very smart basketball.
But you can not directly compare the Nuggets seven superstars with the numbers of superstars that the Mavericks and the Heat had, because of the huge within the season trade that the Nuggets had. If you count only the post trade players, the Nuggets had these superstars:
Nene Hilario
Raymond Felton
Chris Andersen
Kenyon Martin
Danilo Gallinari
So they had five, still more than either the Heat or the Mavericks. But another little catch is that Kenyon Martin and Danilo Gallinari were borderline superstars, whereas Nowitzki was a major historical superstar for Dallas and whereas LeBron James was the best player in the League (and also of course a major historical superstar) and whereas Miami also had major historical superstar Dywayne Wade and strong superstar Chris Bosh.
Some readers are going to be saying: alright, I get the point about the Nuggets losing a lot of really good players, but all of those superstar numbers are exaggerated. Well, Quest for the Ring (QFTR) considers more players to be superstars than most other American basketball fans and commentators do. Many fans and writers will not consider any player who has just an average or a poor overall reputation, nor any player who has a style and/or a personality that is low key and/or that has not “caught on” with the public to be a superstar even though in terms of basketball the player is as good or better than players who are considered to be superstars. QFTR reminds you that if you get hung up with personalities and styles you will most likely never win The Quest for the Ring.
The QFTR Real Player Rating (RPR) system identifies ALL superstars, not just the ones the general public thinks are superstars. Furthermore, the RPR system makes absolutely sure all superstars are identified by using a fairly generous standard for “superstars”.
COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF ALL 2010-11 NUGGETS SUPERSTARS
Here in RPR order are the superstars the Nuggets had in 2010-11, before AND after the Carmelo Anthony trade:
Nene Hilario
Raymond Felton
Chris Andersen
Carmelo Anthony
Kenyon Martin
Danilo Gallinari
Chauncey Billups
Now let’s break down what happened with each of these….
NENE: RETURNING
Nene is a man of few words and he is a loyal and trusting sort of individual so it was no surprise when he was one of the exceptions to the rule of Nuggets superstars leaving. He was very unhappy that it took so long for the Nuggets to finally offer up a competitive contract and so he tried to leave, but he was unable to find a team that would match or beat what would end up being a generous Nuggets contract offer that came shortly before the 2011-12 season began.
Incidentally, due to Nene’s relatively low key personality and / or due to his inability to speak English well (he is from Brazil where Portuguese is the language) he is a good example of a superstar who many Americans do not consider to be a superstar. The fact that few Americans think of Nene as a superstar is most likely the main reason why he was not able to get a contract from another team as much or more generous than the one eventually given to him by the Nuggets.
RAYMOND FELTON: GONE
Raymond Felton quit the Nuggets by demanding to be traded. He believes he is a starting point guard in the NBA and he believes he is better than actual 2011-12 Nuggets starting point guard Ty Lawson. But George Karl contended incorrectly that a favorite of his, the actual 2011-12 starting Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson, is better than Felton. And, remember, whatever Karl thinks goes in Denver whether it is right or wrong. Felton was and is completely correct and, thankfully, he was traded to the Portland Trailblazers (for Andre Miller) and is now the starting point guard for them.
CHRIS ANDERSEN: RETURNING
Andersen is under contract through 2012-13. Also, not only is Andersen a Karl favorite, he is even more so a fan favorite in Denver, so all in all there was never any doubt that Andersen would be back for 2011-12 regardless of how many other players left.
CARMELO ANTHONY: GONE
As has been reported extensively in previous Reports and summarized in this one, Anthony quit the Nuggets not only because but primarily because he concluded that it was extremely unlikely and possibly impossible that the Nuggets would ever win The Quest for the Ring during his basketball career. He wanted to go somewhere where the odds of winning a Ring would be substantially greater than approximately zero.
One detail that may not ever have been mentioned in any previous Report (and even if it was mentioned deserves another mention) is that Anthony was especially frustrated when the Nuggets failed to repeat in 2009-10 the ferocious and aggressive defending (aka the “football approach” to basketball) that they used in 2008-09 to reach the West Conference finals. While Anthony was frustrated, disappointed, and confused, QFTR was mostly just confused. Although we said you could not win The Quest for the Ring just doing that alone, we did go out of our way to point out all of the advantages of that strategy. Then the next year George Karl and the Nuggets inexplicably went back to a much more loose and a much less aggressive defending system. It was quite a surprise even if you are used to Karl making incorrect and inconsistent decisions. Before 2009-10 began, we thought for sure that the Nuggets would repeat that ultra aggressive defensive style. But they failed to do so, which in my judgment was the final straw for Anthony; after the Nuggets in 2009-10 relapsed to looser defending , especially in the paint, Anthony decided that he absolutely had to get out of Denver at all costs.
KENYON MARTIN: GONE
The injury plagued and aging power forward’s contract expired at the end of 2010-11 and the Nuggets never had any intention of giving him a new contract. Given how many injuries Martin has had and given the fact that he is in fact overrated (and the two issues are related) the Nuggets were smart to not try to keep Kenyon Martin. When the lockout froze out player / management negotiations, Martin ended up playing in China for 2011-12.
DANILO GALLINARI: RETURNING
This younger small forward was acquired from the Knicks in the Carmelo Anthony trade (and was technically Anthony’s primary replacement at the three-spot). Gallinari is contracted through and including 2012-13. So barring a trade (and the Nuggets were not really in the trading mode for off season 2011) it was always certain that Gallinari would be back for 2011-12.
CHAUNCEY BILLUPS: GONE
Chauncey Billups is now 35 years old which puts him in the primary retirement age range for guards (35 to 38 years old). He went to New York in the multi-player trade involving Carmelo Anthony. Very recently, he was waived by the New York Knicks to provide salary relief for the Knicks’ acquisition star and possibly superstar Center Tyson Chandler. According to someone reporting in Wikipedia, “the Los Angeles Clippers placed the winning bid for (Billups) rights on December 12, 2011. Billups had previously said he would consider retirement if a team claimed him instead of allowing him to clear waivers and sign with a contender.”
So in summary, more than half of the Nuggets’ 2010-11 superstars, four out of seven of them, are gone for 2011-12, which, not including any new superstars they might have, takes them from having seven of them to having just three of them: Nene, Chris Andersen, and Danilo Gallinari. Of these, Chris Andersen is now 33 years old which means he might not be able to repeat as a superstar this year. Danilo Gallinari may not be able to repeat because he was just barely a superstar in 2010-11 and also because in general it is relatively difficult for small forwards to be superstars. The most specific reason why Gallinari might fall short of being a superstar in 2011-12 is that Ty Lawson might not get the ball enough to him often enough for him to produce enough on offense.
The odds are that one of the two between Chris Andersen and Danilo Gallinari will fall a little short of superstar status in 2011-12. So most likely, the Nuggets start out with a base of two superstars (not counting any new player they have who ends up being a superstar). Two superstars is the typical number you see on:
--Losing teams (that are not among the very worst though)
--On teams that win roughly as many games as they lose
--On teams that get quickly bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
The bottom line is that the Nuggets have suffered a huge outflow of superstars, could easily now have fewer superstars than the average NBA team, and are therefore moving from the rich side of town to a much poorer side of town as far as superstars are concerned.
WHEN SUPERSTARS QUIT IT MEANS THE TEAM / FRANCHISE HAS FAILED
At the risk of stating the obvious, no pro sports team and franchise can have a bunch of superstar (or star if you think the word superstar is an exaggeration) players quit and be able to compete for a Championship any time soon after that. In fact, whenever you see a major superstar and/or several plain superstars demanding to be traded (or just quitting because their contracts are over with and so they are free agents and can simply quit and find another team) that is the sure fire signal that the team / franchise has failed and will have to reboot over three to five years rock bottom minimum before it will again be able to be a serious contender to win The Quest for the Ring. Superstar players very seldom make a mistake when they give up on a team / franchise. They are the canaries in the coalmine as the old saying goes. Teams that are serious contenders keep all or at least almost all of their superstars for many years during which time they remain serious contenders. Whereas, failed teams / franchises lose superstars who get out of town one way or another.
So therefore one of the most important things in The Quest for the Ring is: how do you keep all or at least almost all of your superstars (other than the ones you use in strategic trades)? Although that is not as difficult as you might think, it’s not a piece of cake either. You could write a book on that subject, which obviously is way beyond the scope of this Report.
What I want to stress here is that the Denver Nuggets are, as of right now, a clearly and obviously failed pro sports team and franchise. Mark Warkentien and other managers brought a large number of superstars on to the team from 2006 through 2010 yet the Nuggets were never among the real primary contenders, except arguably in 2009 when to make a long story short the Nuggets were surprisingly successful when they used what you might call a football approach to basketball. But there was no way they could actually have won the Quest in 2009, which is shown clearly by the fact that they were routed out of their own building by the Los Angeles Lakers when they were finally eliminated in the 2009 West Conference Final.
But as of now, in fact, the Nuggets must be an excellent textbook example of a failed team and franchise. And yes, as stated and proved in previous Reports and to some extent in this Report, the blame lies with the owners and, in this case, with the coach and the unofficial general manager, George Karl.
By the way and for the record, if anyone ever tells you that it is possible to win The Quest for the Ring with no superstars at all, tell him that he doesn’t know what the hell he is talking about. Even if you play the smartest basketball you possibly can, you have to have at least one superstar, rock bottom minimum. The best you can say about such a ridiculous claim that you could win a Championship with zero superstars is that the person who thinks they know of a team that won the Quest with no superstars is not counting at least one player as a superstar who actually was a superstar, due probably to that player (or those players) having low key or unpopular personalities and/or unpopular styles. It is a virtual 100% certainty that it is mathematically and literally impossible to win the Quest with zero superstars.
ARE THERE ANY NEW SUPERSTARS ON THE NUGGETS?
Let’s go on the hunt for new Nuggets superstars…..
First, although there was massive turmoil in the Nuggets between last year and this, there is one returning player who had a major role last year and will again have a major role this year: point guard Ty Lawson. In 2010-11 Lawson was fairly close to superstar status but not there. In 2011-12, if he gets better he will probably be a borderline superstar. How well Lawson does is the most important factor that will determine whether the Nuggets make the 2012 playoffs or not. If Lawson doesn’t get better the Nuggets will probably not even make the playoffs in 2012.
Next on the hunt for new Nuggets superstars, consider that the Nuggets acquired point guard Andre Miller from the Trailblazers for Raymond Felton. Miller will most likely back up Lawson even if he is technically better than him, mainly because Karl really likes Lawson’s style and personality but also because Miller is close to retirement. Although Andre Miller is traditionally a superstar, he has reached the age where it starts to be very, very difficult to maintain superstar status: Miller is now 35 years old. It’s very difficult to say for certain, but if forced to say I’ll say that Miller will probably just barely still be a superstar in 2011-12. So that’s one new one so far.
Let’s continue the hunt for more new Nuggets superstars….
On December 13, 2011, shooting guards Corey Brewer and Rudy Fernandez were traded from the Dallas Mavericks to the Denver Nuggets for a future second round draft pick. As of that date, the Nuggets were in desperate need of shooting guards. J.R. Smith had quit the team and, as a result of the lockout, gone to China for 2011-12. And slightly above average shooting guard Aaron Afflalo and his agent were off trying to see if they could parley George Karl’s going crazy about him into a contract from a NBA team much larger than anyone including Afflalo himself ever thought he might get. So in other words, as of December 13, the Nuggets were still uncertain whether the Karl super favorite at the position, Aaron Afflalo would agree to sign a new contract with the Nuggets for the most that the Nuggets could possibly offer. No other team fell for George Karl’s exaggerated opinion of Afflalo and so no other team was willing to offer Afflalo a ridiculously generous contract. But even so, the Nuggets must have had some competition for Afflalo because they ended up offering Afflalo an extremely generous contract: $43 million over five years. (A ridiculously generous contract would have been 10 million dollars a year, for example, $50 million dollars over five years; $43 million is extremely generous but is just short of “ridiculously or insanely generous”).
Laugh out loud how Karl jacked up the cost for Afflalo. Now, thanks to Karl, Afflalo becomes one of the most overpaid players in basketball. For those who think ALL pro basketball players are overpaid, they will be able to say “I told you so” on nights when Afflalo scores 7 or 8 points in 32 minutes playing time and plays some decent defense but, nonetheless, the guards Afflalo guards score 20 points (meaning that Afflalo was minus 12-13 points head to head; and remember, he is making more than 8 million dollars a year!). But hey, George Karl loves him so who are we to judge.
Incidentally, if you are wondering who the Mavericks have at shooting guard for 2012 now that they traded Brewer and Fernandez to the Nuggets, aside from Jason Terry who traditionally plays major minutes, they now have Vince Carter from Phoenix and they also have young Dominique Jones who as of yet has not played much in the NBA.
So what about the Nuggets two new 2-guards they received from Dallas? Corey Brewer was a well below average shooting guard in both 2009-10 and in 2010-11. As of now this is not even a close call: he is not a superstar now and most likely will not be one for the foreseeable future. And unfortunately for Brewer, he will get little playing time since Aaron Afflalo will get a lot of it. This will make it difficult for Brewer to become a better shooting guard.
As for Rudy Fernandez, he was a well above average two-guard for the Portland Trailblazers but not really all that close to being a superstar. It is very unlikely (but technically possible) that he will now become a superstar for the Nuggets. Even if he does turn out to be better than Aaron Afflalo, he will most likely not get close to the playing time that Aaron Afflalo will be getting. Of course, you can bet that if Fernandez IS better than Aaron Afflalo but gets a lot less playing time then him, you will hear about it here at QFTR.
LONG SHOT HUNT: DO THE NUGGETS HAVE ANY SUPERSTAR ROOKIES OR NEAR ROOKIES?
Players who don’t play at least 300 minutes are (a) not very significant for the season and (b) are not eligible to get a Real Player Rating, which means we can’t officially say whether they are a superstar or not.
In general, rookies on a George Karl team are unlikely to get at least 300 minutes. George Karl is well known for generally being stingy to rookies and near rookies, especially forwards and centers. With guards he is stingy with rookies but arguably not so stingy with near rookies in their second years.
Whether rookie small forward Kenneth Faried (2011 Draft, Round 1, Pick 22, Nuggets) gets to play more than 300 minutes in 2011-12 is a crap shoot. Faried may possibly turn out to be this years’ Renaldo Balkman. That is, he may be that young but outstanding power forward who Karl refuses to play for some combination of stupid and incorrect reasons, resulting in the Nuggets having a poor paint defense which, in turn, will result in the Nuggets being uncompetitive in the playoffs (should they finish ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves and make the playoffs). On the other hand, if Karl likes Faried’s style and/or his personality, he probably will get more than 300 minutes.
If Faried does play at least 300 minutes, he probably won’t be a superstar simply because it is rare for rookie small forwards to be superstars. Also, the main point guard, Ty Lawson, probably won’t distribute the ball enough to Faried because Lawson will be taking the ball to the rim too much. Our best guess is that either Faried won’t play enough or that he will fall short of being a superstar in 2011-12.
Another rookie the Nuggets have is Jordan Hamilton (small forward aka “wing player”). Hamilton is probably not going to get much playing time under Danilo Gallinari. Although not a major superstar, Danilo Gallinari is a borderline one, is generally reliable, is only 23 years old and probably not peaked yet, is very well liked by George Karl, and is a fan favorite. For all of those reasons, Gallinari is going to get the bulk of playing time at the small forward position. Another problem for a small forward trying to get playing time on a George Karl team is that Karl has the bad habit of playing three guards at once (usually two points and one shooting). So all things considered, it is unlikely that Hamilton will play at least 300 minutes and get an official RPR rating. So Hamilton will lack both prior year experience and playing time this year. These are all reasons why it will be extremely difficult for Hamilton to be a superstar this year.
Moreover and generally, only a minority of eventual superstars are superstars when rookies (although most of the eventual historical and major historical superstars are superstars right from when they are rookies). Finally, remember that it is more difficult for shooting guards and small forwards to be superstars than it is for the other three positions. All things considered, it is a huge long shot that Hamilton will be a superstar in 2011-12.
Tomofey Mozgov from Russia came from the NY Knicks in the Carmelo trade and it is extremely unlikely that he will ever be a superstar center. He is overrated by Karl and by some (many?) of the rose colored glasses wearing fans of the Nuggets.
Kosta Koufas was not a superstar but was an above average player and played well for Utah in 2008-09. But in 2009-10, Koufas was not good at all for Minnesota. It is all but impossible that he will ever be a superstar center.
So now we have discussed the entire team and can sum up the superstar situation.
Last year, before the Carmelo Anthony trade, these were the superstars:
Nene Hilario
Chris Andersen
Carmelo Anthony
Kenyon Martin
Chauncey Billups.
After the Carmelo Anthony trade these were the superstars:
Nene Hilario
Raymond Felton
Chris Andersen
Kenyon Martin
Danilo Gallinari
After both the Carmelo Anthony trade and the 2011 off season here is the outlook for Nuggets superstars:
Nene Hilario will almost certainly be a superstar
Andre Miller is likely to be a superstar
Danilo Gallinari will probably be a superstar
Ty Lawson may or may not be a superstar; it is very difficult to predict.
Chris Andersen may or may not be a superstar; flip a coin on it.
So the bottom line (after the possibility of injuries is factored in) is that the Nuggets will most likely end up with between two and five superstars, with three probably being the most probable number. If they do end up with three, this would be two fewer than they had both before and after the Carmelo Anthony trade last year.
THE DEVASTATION COULD EASILY HAVE BEEN EVEN WORSE
The last phrase in the title of this Report is "and the Devastation Could Easily have been even Worse". How could it have been even worse than it was? Well, both Nene and Aaron Afflalo tried to get a generous contract from some other team before they signed with the Nuggets. Neither one of them were going to sign with Denver at all costs and either one of them or both of them would have bolted if they had snagged a big offer from another team. If another team had gone for and signed Nene, this would have been especially devastating for Denver; this would likely have resulted in the Nuggets becoming one of the worst teams in the League in 2012.
WILL GEORGE KARL BE HUMILIATED BY FINISHING BEHIND THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES?
The Denver Nuggets may or may not make the playoffs in 2012; it is most likely going to be a close call. If forced to say I would say that Denver will not make the playoffs in 2012. (Remember, QFTR does not make any official predictions and so that is just an unofficial prediction.)
Watch the race between the Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Northwest Division! The Nuggets will in fact most likely not make the playoffs if the Timberwolves get the best of them. While the Nuggets are obviously on the way down, the Timberwolves are obviously on the way up the ladder. QFTR is looking forward to finding out whether George Karl will be humiliated by the Timberwolves finishing ahead of his Nuggets in 2012.
Next up, we’ll look at exactly how the Timberwolves or anyone else can defeat the 2011-12 Denver Nuggets, even when they play with their big home court advantage in Denver.
