A Very Fast Pace is Usually One of the Dumbest Things a Basketball Team Can Do
Here's a Report we wish we had been able to do a long time ago, and here is one of the all-time most important Quest for the Ring (QFTR) Reports. We have finally completed an Excel worksheet showing hard proof that the fastest paced teams in the NBA NEVER win and only extremely rarely get into the NBA Championship. That’s right, if a team is among the very fastest teams (among the fastest 10% of teams to be exact, which would be the fastest three teams here in 2012 and in all recent years if you round) it will be somewhere between extremely difficult and pretty much impossible for that team to reach the NBA finals, let alone win the Championship.
But those extremely fast teams can and do win more regular season games than they would win with a slower pace, and they can and do sometimes end up with a decent starting slot (seed) for the playoffs. But these teams are fooling themselves and they are fooling the public that they will be able to use that fast pace to win playoff series. They will be doing no such thing.
For years before we finally got the time to do the proof worksheet QFTR has known this to be true. So for years we have been warning anyone who will listen that while you can pick up a few extra and cheap regular season wins by being one of the fastest teams (due mostly to getting a larger than normal number of easy fast break scores against teams who have not adjusted their defending for that as they do in the playoffs) you are setting up for a quick first or second round exit in the playoffs (assuming you make the playoffs at all).
WHAT EXACTLY IS PACE?
Conversationally and generally speaking pace is what you think it is: it’s how fast the team is running its offense. More specifically, pace is how fast the team shoots the ball on the average (when it gets the ball). The 24-second clock is always in effect: all teams must shoot and at least hit the rim within 24 seconds of taking possession of the ball or else it is a turnover. So in other words pace is: how much of the 24-second clock, on average, does a team use up before it shoots the ball?
There are actually any number of strategies and tactics that end up producing pace. These can be simplified and summarized into three primary determinants of pace:
--How many fast breaks does a team generate and run?
--How many near fast breaks does a team generate and run?
--For plays that are neither fast breaks nor near fast breaks, how much of the 24-second clock does the team prefer to use (on average).
Definitions:
"Fast Break": Where the offensive player races to the basket and dunks or lays the ball in (with no defender able to catch up to him).
"Near Fast Break" also known as an "In Transition Scoring Opportunity": Where two or more players have rushed from the defensive end down to the offensive end of the court more quickly than usual and where the number of offensive players in scoring position outnumbers the number of defenders by at least one player. In other words, one or more defenders have been beaten down the court by the offensive players who have moved into scoring position. The Near Fast Break (In Transition Scoring Opportunity) is roughly equivalent to a power play in hockey.
Now let’s look at the technical, mathematical way to look at pace. Technically, pace is considered to be the number of possessions a team has per game. Mathematically, pace is often measured by this generally accepted formula for the number of possessions:
.97*(FGA + 0.44 x FTA + TO – ORB)
(Geeks have used anything from .96 to .98 for the factor at the beginning. Also, geeks have used anything from .40 to .475 for the factor in front of FTA.
In plain English, that’s 98 percent of the sum of the field goals attempted plus .44 times free throws attempted plus turnovers minus offensive rebounds. Field goals attempted is defined as two point shots attempted plus three point shots attempted.
QFTR is the Site that bridges the gap between the geek / academic world and the real basketball world so as such we are not going to further discuss this formula as we would if we were a geek / academic Site.
Always remember, by definition, pace = number of possessions per game.
QFTR THINKS AN OFFENSIVE REBOUND CREATES A NEW POSSESSION
For just looking at possessions, QFTR actually disagrees with this formula because QFTR thinks that every offensive rebound where another shot is then attempted is another possession. So the QFTR formula for possessions is:
.97*(FGA + 0.44 x FTA + TO)
But if this QFTR formula for possessions was used for pace, the teams that make a lot of offensive rebounds would have a faster pace just because they make a lot of offensive rebounds, which would not be the best way to look at or measure pace. Therefore, when it comes to pace, QFTR uses the generally accepted formula for possessions (and for pace) while reserving our possessions formula for use in other contexts.
THE PROOF: THE 32 NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS 1980-2011
We debated back and forth on whether to upload the pace of Championship teams worksheet and decided to go ahead and do so. That worksheet can be viewed at the very bottom of this Report. Right now we will summarize what the proof worksheet shows about how teams with very different paces do in the Championship (and about whether they make it into the Championship in the first place). We have a 32 year record of Championships, from 1980-2011. Prior to 1980 there was no 3-point shot in the NBA which makes the game different, so we should not and do not look at years before 1980.
In all of this discussion of the proof, the pace or speed of teams is the pace they operated at during the regular season. (The pace they operated at in the playoffs is not directly relevant although it would be very interesting to investigate). Obviously, all teams intend to operate at a speed in the playoffs similar to the one they operated at in the regular season. It would be absurd and self defeating to operate at one pace in the regular season and then attempt to operate at a different pace in the playoffs. It would be impossible to make a radical change of pace from the regular season into the playoffs. Therefore, and this should be obvious, teams need to operate in the regular season at the pace that will be the smartest one for them to operate at in the playoffs. They need to anticipate that best playoff pace and then set the regular season pace at that optimal playoff pace.
Here is the straight up breakdown by pace of the 32 NBA Champions from 1980-2011:
Fastest 10% of Teams: 0 Championship winners
2nd Fastest 10% of Teams: 2 Championship winners
3rd Fastest 10% of Teams: 1 Championship winner
4th Fastest 10% of Teams: 4 Championship winners
5th Fastest 10% of Teams: 5 Championship winners
6th Fastest 10% of Teams: 2 Championship winners
7th Fastest 10% of Teams: 10 Championship winners
8th Fastest 10% of Teams: 3 Championship winners
9th Fastest 10% of Teams: 2 Championship winners
10th Fastest 10% of Teams: 3 Championship winners
Or to say the same time but looked at the other way:
Slowest 10% of Teams: 3 Championship winners
2nd Slowest 10% of Teams: 2 Championship winners
3rd Slowest 10% of Teams: 3 Championship winners
4th Slowest 10% of Teams: 10 Championship winners
5th Slowest 10% of Teams: 2 Championship winners
6th Slowest 10% of Teams: 5 Championship winners
7th Slowest 10% of Teams: 4 Championship winners
8th Slowest 10% of Teams: 1 Championship winner
9th Slowest 10% of Teams: 2 Championship winners
10th Slowest 10% of Teams: 0 Championship winners
So there is the proof: teams among the fastest 10% have never ever won a Championship in all of the 32 NBA Championships with the 3-point shot in effect. But meanwhile, teams among the slowest 10% have won 3 of those 32 Championships.
Broadening things out a little, teams among the fastest 1/5 (20%) have won just 2 of the 32 Championships. But meanwhile, teams among the slowest 1/5 (20%) have won 5 of the 32 Championships.
Teams among the fastest 30% have won just 3 out of the 32 Championships. Meanwhile, teams among the slowest 30% have won 8 out of the 32 Championships.
Teams among the fastest 40% have won 7 out of the 32 Championships. Meanwhile, teams among the slowest 40% have won 18 out of the 32 Championships.
Finally, teams among the fastest 50% (faster than average in other words) have won just 12 of the 32 Championships. Meanwhile, teams among the slowest 50% (slower than average in other words) have won the other 20 of the 32 Championships. In percentage terms, slower than average teams have won 62.5% of the Championships while faster than average teams have won 37.5% of the Championships.
So there you have it: between the two teams in the Championship, the faster paced team is at a big disadvantage. Or in other words it is much more likely that the slower paced team will win over the faster paced team in the NBA Championship.
MORE PROOF: THE 64 TEAMS THAT WERE IN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP 1980-2011
Now let’s look at both the Championship winners and the losers, who even though they lost the Championship obviously had extremely good years and were among the very best teams. Let’s look at the complete pace breakdown for all of those 64 teams that made it into the Championship series:
Fastest 10% of Teams: 1 Team in the Championship
2nd Fastest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
3rd Fastest 10% of Teams: 5 Teams in the Championship
4th Fastest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
5th Fastest 10% of Teams: 9 Teams in the Championship
6th Fastest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
7th Fastest 10% of Teams: 12 Teams in the Championship
8th Fastest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
9th Fastest 10% of Teams: 6 Teams in the Championship
10th Fastest 10% of Teams: 4 Teams in the Championship
Or to say the same thing but looked at the other way:
Slowest 10% of Teams: 4 Teams in the Championship
2nd Slowest 10% of Teams: 6 Teams in the Championship
3rd Slowest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
4th Slowest 10% of Teams: 12 Teams in the Championship
5th Slowest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
6th Slowest 10% of Teams: 9 Teams in the Championship
7th Slowest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
8th Slowest 10% of Teams: 5 Teams in the Championship
9th Slowest 10% of Teams: 7 Teams in the Championship
10th Slowest 10% of Teams: 1 Teams in the Championship
One team out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the fastest 10% of teams (and it was just barely). Strictly speaking, zero of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the fastest 10% of teams. In 1996 there were 29 teams in the League, and if you round to determine how many teams are 10% of teams you get three teams. And since the 1996 Seattle Supersonics were the third fastest team they count if you round. If you don't round, then only the fastest two teams would count among the fastest and if you do it this way then not one single team out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the fastest 10%. Meanwhile, 4 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the slowest 10% of teams.
We will count the 1996 Seattle Supersonics as among the fastest 10% of teams in all of the following comparisons.
Broadening things out a little, 8 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the fastest 20% of teams. But meanwhile, 10 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the slowest 20% of teams.
Broadening things out a little more, 13 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the fastest 30% of teams. But meanwhile, 17 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the slowest 30% of teams.
19 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the fastest 40% of teams. But meanwhile, 29 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the slowest 40% of teams.
Finally, 28 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the fastest 50% of teams. And meanwhile, 36 out of the 64 teams in the Championships have been among the slowest 50% of teams. In other words, more than half (36 out of 64) of the teams in the Championships were slower than average teams. In percentage terms, 56% of the teams in the Championships have been slower than average while the other 44% were faster than average.
The conclusions are very clear:
--It is at least extremely difficult and maybe just about impossible to make it into the NBA Championship as one of the fastest 10% of the teams. The fastest 10% of teams are heavily penalized in the playoffs regardless of how many extra regular season wins they may have picked up by operating at the very fast pace. These extremely fast teams often lose playoff series despite having the home court advantage.
--By contrast, the slowest 10% of the teams can sometimes get into the Championship, and they can win it despite their very slow pace. The slowest teams don’t seem to be either penalized or advantaged by their very slow pace. Since even the absolute slowest teams are not at a disadvantage, no slower than average team is at a disadvantage due to pace either.
--Generally and looking only at pace, in the Championship series and by extension in other playoff series, the slower paced team has the advantage over the faster paced team. If all of the other factors are equal (which of course they never are in real life) the slower paced team will defeat the faster paced team in a playoff series every time. Whenever the faster paced team defeats a slower paced team in a playoff series, that faster paced team has used other advantages it has to offset the disadvantage it has from the higher pace.
GETTING THE PACE RIGHT: THE FOUR FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE BEST PACE TO USE
The correct advice on pace starts with a blunt warning: teams should never ever operate at a very fast pace thinking that will help them win playoff series, because the opposite is true: the fastest pace teams are at a big disadvantage in the playoffs. Teams should never ever be among the fastest 10% of teams if they want to make it into the Championship or to win one if in it.
There are four factors that determine the best pace to use. You need to calibrate the pace to these four:
(1) Exactly how fast the players are, primarily the guards
(2) How good the team is at generating fast breaks
(3) The quality of offense of the team
(4) Whether the team is a better offensive team than a defensive team (relative to the other teams) or whether it is the reverse. In other words, is the team trying to win playoff series more with offense or more with defense?
Starting at a slightly slower than average pace (which is the overall average best pace) you have to consider all four of these factors and adjust the pace up and down accordingly. After considering all four of these factors, they might offset each other and you might end up about where you started: at slightly slower than average pace. Or they might not offset each other and you might end up being smart to operate at a fast pace (but never an extremely fast pace). Or you might end up being smart to operate at a slow pace, possibly even an extremely slow pace.
ADJUST PACE FOR SPEED OF PLAYERS, PRIMARILY THE SPEED OF GUARDS
Teams that have more athletic and have faster guards should operate at a faster pace, provided they avoid the extreme of being in the fastest 10% or 20% and provided they slow down as necessary for the other calibration factors that we will proceed to discuss.
ADJUST PACE FOR FAST BREAKS GENERATION CAPABILITY
Teams that have the capability and have demonstrated that capability for generating a lot of fast breaks should operate at a faster pace. To justify operating at a very fast pace (but avoiding the absolute fastest pace which will kill you) aside from having very fast players, you would need to be leading or almost leading the League in steals. For another thing, you would have to be a good and preferably a very good defensive rebounding team.
Teams that do not for whatever reason generate many fast breaks should most definitely operate at a slower pace. Even teams that generate few fast breaks can still win a NBA Championship provided that they wisely choose to operate at a slower pace. In other words, the teams that can not or choose not to try to generate a lot of fast breaks have to go at a slower pace and they will NOT be at a disadvantage in the playoffs for operating at that slower pace. In fact the teams with the slowest players and the ones who generate the least fast breaks can even operate among the absolute slowest 10% and yet still have a chance to get into and win the NBA Championship.
Remember it is NOT a disqualifier to be among the absolute slowest teams but it IS a disqualifier if you are among the absolute fastest teams.
ADJUST PACE FOR THE QUALITY OF THE OFFENSE
Another important thing that goes into what pace a team should operate at is: what is the quality of the offense? The higher the quality the SLOWER the pace should be. High quality offenses have to operate at slower paces for the advantages from the quality to be achieved.
Quality of offense is a massive topic that is mostly beyond the scope of this Report. But we will summarize / highlight a little. Quality of offense is determined by a big number of factors. Some of the most important ones are:
--Does the team have a little organization on offense or does it play more of a disorganized, street ball type of offense?
--Does the team have a quality point guard or two who can make a lot of plays or not?
--Does the team have some set plays on offense that the Coach and/or the point guard can call at any time or does it have very few or no set plays (other than ones drawn up in timeouts)?
The more of these questions that can be answered yes, the higher the quality of the offense is going to be, and the slower the pace should be. On the other hand, the more the answers are “no”, and in other words the lower the quality of the offense, the less it makes sense to operate at slower than average paces. To a limited extent a team with a lower quality of offense can offset that by operating at a higher pace.
ADJUST PACE FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFENSE VERSUS THE STRENGTH OF THE DEFENSE
The more a team is depending on offense to win playoff series relative to how much it is depending on defense, the faster pace it can and should run (without going overboard and while considering the other factors). The more a team is depending on defense to win playoff series relative to how much it is depending on offense, the slower pace it can and should run (without overdoing it and while considering the other factors).
Teams that are very strongly depending on defense to win playoff series absolutely must operate at a much slower than average pace (on offense) because one of the big disadvantages of fast pace is that it forces the defense to have to defend more possessions in total and to defend more in transition and fast break types of plays. This is because a fast paced team mathematically increases the number of possessions that the other team will get. And also, the other team often psychologically responds to a fast pace opponent by picking up the pace themselves to some extent. Finally, fast pace teams can be the victims of their own strategy when some of their fast breaks are not finished correctly and end up resulting in fast breaks or at least in transition quasi fast breaks going the other way.
SUMMING ALL OF THE ADVICE ON PACE UP
At the “fast pace extreme” a team would have these characteristics:
--Much faster than average guard players
--A team which can and does generate many more fast breaks than average; the team is a League leader in steals and has very good defensive rebounding.
--A very LOW quality offense
--A team with a better, stronger offense, relative to its defense, so therefore the team is depending more on offense than on defense to win playoff series.
A team with all of these characteristics (which would be rare) would be smart to operate at a very fast pace while avoiding the fastest 20% or at the very least avoiding the fastest 10%. For example, it could choose to be faster than 75% of the other teams and this would probably be just about perfect.
To be on the safe side, I personally would never operate faster than in the 3rd fastest 10% even if I had a team with all of the features described just above. That means that in the NBA here in 2012, I would not under any circumstances be among the 6 fastest teams.
Departing from this combination:
--As guards become slower the pace needs to be reduced.
--As the fast breaking capability and performance goes down, the pace needs to be reduced.
--As the quality of the offense goes UP, the pace needs to be reduced. Remember, the quality of the offense is reverse correlated with correct pace.
--As the quality of the defense relative to the offense goes up, as in other words the team is more dependent on defense instead of offense to win playoff series, the pace needs to be reduced.
I SENSE A CRITICISM OF GEORGE KARL IS COMING UP NEXT, LAUGH OUT LOUD
Next we’ll see which NBA teams and coaches are disqualifying themselves this year (and perhaps we’ll have time to take a look at some other, recent years) by operating at an extremely fast pace, which as we have seen disqualifies them from reaching or winning the NBA Championship.
THE PROOF WORKSHEET
Rank in the worksheet below is how fast the team's pace was compared with all the other teams in the League when all of the teams are ordered from fastest pace to slowest pace. For example, if there are 30 teams in the League and pace rank is 12, the team is the 12th fastest team in the League. There are 11 faster teams and 18 slower teams than that team.
"Rel Pace Rank" stands for Relative Pace Rank and is the Pace Rank expressed as a where that rank is relative to all of the ranks. The formula for relative pace rank is rank / (total # of teams ranked plus 1) For example, if there were 31 teams in the League, the 16th rank would be exactly in the middle (with 15 above and 15 below) and so the relative rank would be 16 / (31+1) = 16/32 = .500.
