More on George Karl's Cheating of JaVale McGee Including the Likelihood that it will Cost the Denver Nuggets a 2013 Playoffs Berth
For the
Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks game on December 5, which was lost by the
Nuggets 108-104, the Coach of the Nuggets, George Karl, started Timofey Mozgov
at Center. Karl's usual starter at the center position, Kosta Koufas, was not
available due to a bout with the flu. If Karl really thought that McGee was not
as good as Koufas but was better than Mozgov, than McGee would have started,
but as I say, Mozgov started. So looking at this in the ordinary way, that means that Karl thinks that Koufas is
better than McGee and also that Mozgov is better than McGee. But that is laughable,
since McGee is obviously much better than both of them.
If
you want to get technical, the amount by which McGee is better than Mozgov is
bigger than the amount by which McGee is better than Koufas (because Koufas is better than Mozgov). Both gaps in favor
of McGee are big, but technically speaking Karl commits an even bigger error
when he starts Mozgov over McGee than when he starts Koufas over McGee. Mozgov
starting on December 5 in Atlanta was a real laugher. Technically speaking Karl made his biggest
error yet in managing center playing times on December 5 in Atlanta. Not only did Mozgov start, but he
played more minutes than McGee did, 28 minutes for Mozgov versus 24 minutes for
McGee.
Every
once in a while the crack Nuggets Reporter for the Denver Post (laugh out loud at that guy)
hints that Karl might be mistaken about not starting McGee. When that crack
reporter implies that Karl might be mistaken about McGee in a question directly to Karl (he does not dare be
open and direct so he has to just imply that Karl might be mistaken) Karl gives
a nonsensical and rambling answer. Included in Karl's answer is that you can't
just look at who starts; you have to also look at playing time.
We
already saw that Mozgov got more "burn" (playing time) in the Atlanta game than did McGee. Let's look at
the overall situation from the start of the season. If we do that we can see
that Karl is cheating McGee out of both starts AND playing time. Here you go:
STARTS
AND PLAYING TIMES OF NUGGETS CENTERS, FIRST 19 GAMES OF THE 2012-2013 SEASON
Kosta
Koufas - 18 starts and 388 minutes
Timofey
Mozgov - 1 start and 109 minutes
JaVale
McGee - 0 starts and 366 minutes
As you
can see, Koufas has more playing time than McGee! So when Karl implies that
McGee is not going to be cheated out of playing time even if he is cheated out
of starts, tell Karl he is a liar.
The way
it should be if the Nuggets were coached and managed correctly is that McGee
should have at least three minutes of playing time for every minute that Koufas
has. So the actual breakdown of playing time reflects an incompetent coach.
The ratio between McGee's playing time and Mozgov's playing time if the Nuggets were coached and managed correctly is that McGee should have at rock bottom minimum eight minutes of playing time for every minute that Mozgov has (assuming Mozgov gets playing time outside of garbage time at all). Instead of at least 8 to 1 in favor of McGee, it is only 3.36 to 1.
The ratio between McGee's playing time and Mozgov's playing time if the Nuggets were coached and managed correctly is that McGee should have at rock bottom minimum eight minutes of playing time for every minute that Mozgov has (assuming Mozgov gets playing time outside of garbage time at all). Instead of at least 8 to 1 in favor of McGee, it is only 3.36 to 1.
EXACTLY
WHAT DOES KARL ACTUALLY BELIEVE?
Well, one
possibility is that Karl actually believes that Koufas is a better pro
basketball center than is McGee. But on the other hand, it is a real
possibility that Karl agrees with Quest for the Ring (QFTR) and with many other
rational people that McGee is actually better than both Koufas and Mozgov, but
that McGee can not start and that McGee has to be cheated out of playing time because
he (Karl) reserves the right to cheat anyone who does not meet his personality
and style standards.
Unfortunately,
as of now we technically don't know which is the real way that Karl actually
thinks; of course, he keeps this as a carefully guarded secret and the Denver Post and other reporters are useless for getting to the bottom of this. QFTR goes farther
than anyone into stories like this, but even QFTR has limitations; for example,
we can not read minds. So as I say, there are technically two possibilities,
and we don't know which is correct.
Having
said that, if I had to bet, I would be very comfortable betting that Karl is
cheating McGee because of his personality, his style, and to a lesser extent
his age. I would bet that Karl does not really think that McGee is not as good as Koufas or Mozgov when basketball performance and skills alone are looked at.
A
REMINDER: THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER THAT GEORGE KARL HAS EVER CHEATED
SINCE QFTR BEGAN SIX YEARS AGO
See this Report for the full details about how JaVale McGee is the best player and also
the most important player that George Karl has ever chosen to cheat out of a
lot of playing time and out of a lot of starts (at least in the last six years
since QFTR has been producing content).
However,
I want to add more important points (related to this header) that I don't think
I mentioned in that Report. (This story seems to have no end to it).
First, this
is the first time that George Karl has ever cheated the best player on the team
since QFTR began six years ago. Yes, JaVale McGee is the best player on the
Nuggets according to Real Player Ratings, and according to many who just watch
games and don't really give a damn about performance measures. So this cheating rises to a whole new level, the highest level possible actually.
As is
often the case, this is in accordance with the payroll; McGee is also the
highest paid player on the Nuggets. McGee's pay for this season is $10 million
dollars whereas Koufas' pay is $3 million and Mozgov's pay is a little more
than $3 million. It turns out that while Coaches sometimes have other ideas
(some of them completely wrong) general managers (who are mostly responsible for
the actual pay amounts paid to players) do a pretty good job of paying players
according to how good they are in general and according to how important they
are for playoff games in particular.
The next
best player on the Nuggets this year is point guard Ty Lawson, but QFTR is reasonably
certain that Lawson will finish behind McGee when all of the games have been
played this year, especially since Lawson is off to a relatively slow start
this year on shooting percentage and points scored. Lawson assists are up a
little (and he gets just enough of them so that QFTR agrees that he is a good point guard) but Lawson turnovers are up fairly big this year so far as
the Nuggets lack of even a slightly organized offense has really started to
make Lawson a worse player than he used to be.
Shooting
guard J.R. Smith, who was the player that Karl targeted for cheating from 2006-2007
until Smith quit the team after 2010-2011 was and still is a very, very good
player, but McGee is even better and is more important. Smith at best is a high
end star or a low end superstar whereas McGee is a high end superstar or
possibly in the future a low end historical superstar. On the average, centers are much more
important than shooting guards for winning playoff games and Championships,
although there are always going to be exceptions. One big exception is that for
the Los Angeles Lakers, the most important player has always been Kobe Bryant,
who is very much a shooting guard.
A
BROADCASTER GETS IT RIGHT BUT BROADCASTERS OFTEN ARE NOT WORTH LISTENING TO
The color
guy for the December 5 Denver at Atlanta game, in a rare
sign of real intelligence among broadcasters, pointed out that if you look at
the per minute performance rates, McGee is a superstar, a probable all-star,
and by implication the best player on the Nuggets.
By the
way, I'm glad I didn't have the sound muted during that part of the game as I
often do, because if I did I would have missed that, laugh out loud. It's funny and annoying, but every time I resolve to
start watching games with the sound on mute, there is a relatively smart
broadcaster on, and my resolve weakens and I leave the sound on. Then in the
next game I start with the sound on and naturally there is a jerk or a dumb ass
for a broadcaster who is worshipping George Karl and / or saying dumb ass
things and then I start thinking I need to leave the sound on mute all the
time. So I keep going back and forth on it and it is an annoying dilemma.
The point
is, I am torn between (A) having the sound on all the time, (B) having the
sound off all the time or (C) having it on for some games but off for other
games. If you knew in advance whether the broadcasters knew what they were
talking about then (C) would clearly be the best. But you can't really know
whether the broadcasters are dumb asses until about the end of the first
quarter, and so (C) is not as good as it sounds. To do (C) you have to spend
valuable time evaluating the broadcaster (in the first quarter) rather than
watching the game, and you have to get annoyed about any dumb ass things you hear.
A
REMINDER ABOUT THE REAL REASON WHY KARL CHEATS JAVALE MCGEE
By
far the most likely reason why George Karl is cheating JaVale McGee is the
same reason that he cheated J.R. Smith and Renaldo Balkman: he thinks McGee's
personality and the playing style that comes out of that personality are not "good
enough" for pro basketball, or at least it is not good enough for the way
that Karl wants his team to play in pro basketball.
Closely
related to the personality and the style is the age of McGee. McGee is just 24,
although I hasten to point out that he got a lot of playing experience when he
played for the Washington Wizards for three and a half years. I also hasten to
point out that starting Power Forward Kenneth Faried, whose personality and
style are approved by George Karl, is even younger than McGee; he is only 22,
and this is just his second year in the NBA. Faried is getting a lot of McGee's
playing time even though McGee is substantially better than Faried and even
though versus the best teams you would have to play McGee for more minutes than
Faried to stand a chance.
So although
being young is not enough by itself to get you cheated by Karl, it certainly
does not help your cause either, because Karl often is more suspicious of and
takes a tougher line on younger players than do many other NBA coaches. But
don't get me wrong, this is a fault that Karl shares with others; a big
majority of NBA coaches are in general too suspicious of and too tough on
younger players, and they often don't give the full amount of playing time that
the younger players deserve, although those playing time discrepancies are usually
nothing compared with what we are talking about when we are talking about George
Karl's cheating of JaVale McGee or his cheating of J.R. Smith.
THE
CHEATING OF MCGEE COULD EASILY COST THE NUGGETS A 2013 PLAYOFF BERTH
I don't
know if you have checked the standings lately, but as of right now the Nuggets
would not make the NBA playoffs.
For the
Western Conference, the way the playoff projection looks as of now is that there
are five teams that will almost certainly make the playoffs unless they get
hammered by injury problems:
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Clippers
Oklahoma Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies
True, the
Lakers are off to a bad start, and true, Mike D'Antoni was a very poor choice
for Coach. But the Lakers just have too many superstars for them not to more or
less automatically get a playoff berth in 2013. But winning more than one
playoff series will be difficult for the Lakers due to D'Antoni not being a
good playoffs coach.
There
will be three other playoff spots (because there are eight in total). Remember
that it is relatively easy to make the playoffs in the NBA since sixteen out of
the thirty teams make the playoffs every year. As of now, these six teams are
in the running for these remaining three slots:
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
Minnesota Timberwolves
Utah Jazz
Denver Nuggets
So three
of these six are going to make the playoffs and three of them will not make the
playoffs. The general public thinks that the Nuggets will definitely make the
playoffs in 2013 but the reality is that they probably will not. QFTR has
reported that the way Karl plays in the regular season (along with the very fat
payroll that the owner of the Nuggets supplies) helps to insure that the
Nuggets make the playoffs every year, where the Nuggets then lose quickly
because the way that Karl plays is a complete failure versus really good teams
in the playoff mode.
But on
the other hand, for 2013 the Nuggets might fail to make the playoffs even
though Karl's regular season system and the fat payroll are in full effect. The two reasons why the
Nuggets' lock on a low seed playoff berth might fail this year are:
(1) The
very small number of superstars that the Nuggets have (just one for sure, Ty
Lawson, and even that is not for certain) and the loss of superstars including Carmelo
Anthony may finally catch up with the Nuggets. Anthony helped to ensure that
the Nuggets would make the playoffs every year but of course he quit the team and now
plays for the high flying New York
Knicks.
(2)
JaVale McGee will end up cheated out of 750 to 1,000 minutes (possibly up to
1,200 minutes actually)
Note that
(1) and (2) are related. McGee actually is a superstar, but in order to
actually have a superstar for the playoffs you have to play that player
superstar minutes during the regular season. If you cheat a superstar out of
about 1,000 minutes playing time, then you don't really have a superstar ready
for the playoffs (only one in theory and on paper).
So it may
finally happen: George Karl may finally cost the Nuggets a playoff berth. For
those who have been waiting for Karl to do more damage than just put a team on
the court which can not win in the playoffs, this may finally be your year.
Let me tell you, it will be a sweet spring if in fact the Nuggets fail to make
the playoffs in April 2013. In a just or near perfect world, Karl and the
Nuggets would never make the playoffs.
Remember,
silly tweets and wishful thinking are not going to stop Karl from cheating
McGee for the duration of the entire season. Once Karl settles in to cheating a
player, nothing is going to change that. Even how well McGee plays (or how
badly Koufas plays) are not going to change things substantially. The only way
McGee gets starts and a lot of playing time is if and when BOTH Koufas and Mozgov are not available to
play at all.
CONFUSION
AND LAUGH OUT LOUDS INVOLVING THE NUGGETS DEPTH CHARTS
I want to
make one other point about the situation that exists when Karl decides to cheat
a player for a season. If you look at the depth charts shown on Sites that
maintain them, you see confusion in the first few weeks. And then that confusion
gradually morphs into absurdity and humor.
In the
first week or two of the season, all of the depth charts still show the correct
breakdown, the one that assumes that Karl is not going to be cheating a player.
In this case, if you looked at the depth charts at the very start of the season
at the very beginning of November, you would have seen this for the Nuggets at
Center at every single Nuggets depth chart on the Internet (all of the ones
that get traffic anyway):
Center
(1) - Starter: JaVale McGee
Center
(2) Kosta Koufas
Center
(3) Timofey Mozgov
Obviously,
this is the correct breakdown. But then the season started and Karl began to
refuse to start McGee and he began to cheat McGee out of playing time. So then
during the first few weeks of the season (during November) the depth charts
gradually change. They don't all change at once, so there is confusion between
them during November. But by the end of November, most of them, but not all of
them, are now changed to:
Center
(1) - Starter: Kosta Koufas
Center
(2) JaVale McGee
Center
(3) Timofey Mozgov
At this
point you have absurd depth charts, because it is laughable to think that Kosta
Koufas is legitimately the starter over JaVale McGee. But on the other hand,
the depth charts are supposed to reflect actual reality instead of what is
really correct, and it is very true that the reality is that Koufas is the
starting center for the Nuggets. So the depth charts are absurd but they do
reflect reality.
What is
the actual situation at the actual depth charts posted right now, as of
December 6?
ESPN
(full charts) and HoopsHype are showing:
Center
(1) - Starter: JaVale McGee
Center
(2) Kosta Koufas
Center
(3) Timofey Mozgov
ESPN
(starters only), Real GM, Rotoworld, InsideHoops, CBS Sports, NBC Sports, Yahoo
Sports, and Fox Sports are showing:
Center
(1) - Starter: Kosta Koufas
Center
(2) JaVale McGee
Center
(3) Timofey Mozgov
ESPN is
hopelessly confused and / or they are on the fence and trying to have it both
ways, laugh out loud. ESPN has two different pages where they show player depth
charts. The one where the full charts are shown shows JaVale McGee as the
starter. But the one where only the starters are shown has Kosta Koufas as the
starter. So George Karl's incompetence has caused ESPN to get all confused
about who starts at center for the Nuggets.
Overall,
eight depth charts have changed and now show Koufas as the starter and McGee as
the reserve player. But two depth charts (including ESPN which has some weight
in these matters) are still showing McGee as the starter and Koufas as the
second string reserve player.
To see
for yourself, click on the depth chart links found in the NBA Tracker which is
on the QFTR home page in the right side bar not very far down from the top.
You know
what though? Strictly speaking, none of the depth charts are accurate even as
of December 6, assuming that depth charts are supposed to strictly reflect the
starting order regardless of the playing times. All ten of the depth charts are
wrong under this view of how depth charts are supposed to be. Because as we saw
in the December 5 Nuggets at Hawks game, if Kosta Koufas can't play, Timofey
Mozgov starts over JaVale McGee. So if
the depth charts are supposed to show you just the starting order, then the
correct Nuggets depth chart at center is:
Center
(1) - Starter: Kosta Koufas
Center
(2) Timofey Mozgov
Center
(3) JaVale McGee
This is
even more funny than the one where McGee is the second string, but it does
reflect the actual, starting order.
But actually,
some would argue that the correct way to do a depth chart is to show the actual
starter in the first slot regardless of playing time, but then order the other
slots according to playing time. Using that approach, the correct Nuggets depth
chart right now is:
Center
(1) - Starter: Kosta Koufas
Center
(2) JaVale McGee
Center
(3) Timofey Mozgov
And as we
just saw, eight out of ten depth charts are showing this one.
In
summary, if you think depth charts should show starting orders regardless of
playing times, then George Karl has faked out every single producer of depth
charts because none of the ten of them is showing McGee as third string which
is what he is for starting. But if you think that depth charts should show the
starter in the first slot regardless of playing time and then order the other
players by playing time, then Karl has faked out two of the depth charts, but
eight of them have changed over to reflect Karl's actual, incorrect management.
COMING
NEXT
I am
investigating whether there is currently any other highly paid, definite or
very probable superstar being cheated out of a lot of starts and a lot of
playing time by some other coach. Is McGee the only one being cheated or is
there right now some other coach cheating some other superstar? I will have the
answer for you soon.
