Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal may Fight for Their Fifth Rings in 2010, but Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade are Destined for More Rings
I realized the other day that despite there being a number of great independent basketball sites and despite there being a number of very large Corporate sports sites, there was no where on the internet where you can quickly find out how many Championship rings have been won by players. So this week, Quest for the Ring rescued the Internet from that poverty with four separate Reports, giving you that capability in many different formats and sorts.
Aside from rescuing the Internet and the basketball world from that glaring oversight (and reminding George Karl for the umpteenth time that the 3-point shot is here to stay) why did we do this? We previously stated one important reason: players who have won the Ring are more likely to win more Rings, all other things equal.
And the more Rings a player has won, the more his "theoretically exact" Real Player Rating (RPR) is higher than his calculated by Quest RPR. I like this rule of thumb:
AMOUNTS TO ADD TO A PLAYERS' REAL PLAYER RATING FOR RINGS WON
One Ring: .040
Two Rings: .070
Three Rings: .090
Four Rings: .100
Five Rings: .110
Six Rings: .120
Add .010 for each additional Ring.
So for example, since Kobe Bryant has won four Rings, you had better, if you want to know his real theoretical value, in your mind add .100 to Bryant's RPR whenever you see his latest RPR.
BEYOND REAL PLAYER RATING
RPR is all about actual, real performance. But RPR was designed, more than anything else, so that managers, coaches, and fans could see the real value of players, so that they can then determine correct playing times and correct trades and so forth.
RPR by itself is more useful for coaches managing a team in games than it is for managers determining trades and acquisitions. RPR is still a crucial thing for those managers, but they have to look at other things as well to be able to make the right trades and the right acquisitions. Although RPR may be the great majority or vast majority of what is needed for managers to evaluate the "real player value" (RPV) there are some other factors that would be needed:
SOME FACTORS NEEDED BY MANAGERS BESIDES RPR TO DETERMINE REAL VALUE OF PLAYERS (RPV)
1. Number of Rings won
2. Number of Playoff series won
3. Injury History
4. Age
5. Quality of teams played for during career
6. Variability of RPR, if variability exceeds the norm.
(These were in no particular order.)
Remember, before you even think of calling any of this unimportant, these players are being paid millions per year, and Rings are hanging in the balance. So these things are more important than the average Joe might think.
In the months and years to come, we will be working on RPV, although since RPR will comprise roughly 70% of RPV, and since some of the RPV factors are relatively easy to gauge "on the fly," given the dozens of other things we want to do, it will probably be a little later than a little sooner before RPV is actually born.
For right now we'll settle for looking at one of the factors in the future RPV: the number of rings won. The following is a complete list of all current NBA players who have won one or more rings, ranked by the total number of minutes they played during seasons when they won a Ring, with both the number of rings and the number of minutes limited to where the player played at least 1200 minutes, which works out to just shy of one quarter per game, which is 12 minutes long.
CURRENT NBA PLAYERS RANKED BY NUMBER OF MINUTES PLAYED IN ALL YEARS
THEY WON A RING, LIMITED TO WHEN THEY PLAYED 1200 MINUTES OR MORE
Player / Number of Minutes / Number of Rings
Kobe Bryant 11330 4
Shaquille O'Neal 10315 4
Tim Duncan 10072 4
Tony Parker 8008 3
Bruce Bowen 7657 3
Derek Fisher 6218 3
Manu Ginobili 5684 3
James Posey 3735 2
Brent Barry 3373 2
Ben Wallace 3050 1
Pau Gasol 2999 1
Dwyane Wade 2892 1
Paul Pierce 2874 1
Richard Hamilton 2772 1
Chauncey Billups 2758 1
Tayshaun Prince 2701 1
Ray Allen 2624 1
Udonis Haslem 2491 1
Kevin Garnett 2328 1
Lamar Odom 2316 1
Rajon Rondo 2306 1
Stephen Jackson 2254 1
Trevor Ariza 1998 1
Malik Rose 1933 1
Kendrick Perkins 1912 1
Michael Finley 1823 1
Rasho Nesterovic 1785 1
Devean George 1759 1
Lindsey Hunter 1616 1
Mehmet Okur 1580 1
Eddie House 1480 1
Andrew Bynum 1446 1
Tony Allen 1373 1
Fabricio Oberto 1365 1
Francisco Elson 1332 1
Sasha Vujacic 1293 1
Devin Brown 1238 1
A few weeks ago, Kobe Bryant of the Lakers tied Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan for most number of Rings won by active players: four Rings. Since the Suns (what in the hell are they doing now for God's sakes?) traded O'Neal to the Cavaliers, and since the most likely 2010 NBA final is Cavaliers-Lakers, the number of rings will be an interesting subplot of this coming season. If that is the Championship series, it will be Kobe Bryant versus Shaquille O'Neal in the battle for who will be the King of the NBA in terms of number of rings won.
YOUNG AND MID-AGE PLAYERS WHO HAVE ALREAY WON A RING WHO ARE MOST LIKELY TO WIN MORE RINGS
If you really know basketball and details about the players on this list, its not difficult to estimate who on this list is most likely to increase their Ring totals in the years ahead:
Pau Gasol [RPR: 1.000]
One of the three historically great Lakers (along with Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom, and the young Andrew Bynum is about ready to join the club) this 29 years old, seven foot Center-Power Forward is cool as a cucumber and definitely fulfills the need for serious Quest contenders to have a top notch Center who is both a great defender and either a great finisher or a great shooter, preferably both.
Dwyane Wade [RPR: 1.295]
This 27 year old Miami Heat combo guard ruined owner Marc Cuban's Ring dream in 2006 by combining with Shaquille O'Neal to defeat Dirk Nowitzki (0 Rings) and the Dallas Mavericks. This high energy relentless scoring machine would be handed an extra ring for sheer talent and persistence if that were allowed. As he himself realizes, all he needs is at least one great or at least two really good centers / power forwards, and he is all set to go for Ring #2.
Lamar Odom [RPR: .923]
This 6'10" Los Angeles Lakers power forward turns 30 this November. Odom represents about what scientists would make if they wanted to make the perfect player and they could in the lab put any combination of genes together they wanted. Odom combines a substantial amount of the great majority of the physical and athletic characteristics needed to win NBA playoff games. The most outstanding specific thing to note is that Odom does all three of the most crucial things you want a power forward to do: (a)defend intensely but skillfully, (b)be able to finish very well, and (c)when the lane is clogged or the clock is running out, be able to knock down mid-range jumpers and even some threes. That the Lakers have Odom is living proof that their managers are some serious basketball people who don't fool around when it comes to winning Rings, because Odom is a Ring machine if there ever was one.
Rajon Rondo [RPR: .938]
If Odom is a Ring Machine up front, Rondo is seemingly a backcourt Ring Machine. Just 23 years old and just 6'1" tall, he has quickly become one of the best half dozen point guards in the NBA. But more than that, his shooting percentage is off the charts for a point guard, and his hustle factor and will to win are at least close to being off the charts as well. That Rondo's Boston Celtics were even in the Series with the Magic this spring, let alone taking it to seven games, despite being without Historical Superstar Kevin Garnett, shows you right there that Rondo has to be among the players most likely to win more Rings.
Andrew Bynum [RPR: .940]
Yet another Laker Center-Power Forward, Bynum is just 22 this October, is 7 foot tall, and has the perfect body for basketball along with superb athletic talent. Bynum has noticed that Coach Phil Jackson doesn't give him full credit for all of his abilities, which is a good thing; it shows you that Bynum understands the different components that go into winning playoff games. Roughly speaking, think of Bynum as the front court version of Rondo: a very young player who has "more Rings coming" written all over his bball shoes. But whereas Rondo is a hustler and a clever devil, Bynum is more of a very powerful and very athletic machine, which is exactly the way its supposed to break down between the front court players who can win Rings and guards who can win them.
If you get any of these players on your team, I can guarantee you are instantly at least a long shot contender to win the Quest, and you could be instantly the next level up, a "wildcard contender". You are probably a major contender (there are three by rule) if you have any two of these kinds of players (including players with zero rings but having the right stuff to start getting them).
EXACTLY HOW MANY SUPERSTARS DOES IT TAKE?
First, here is what we are talking about; here are the three types of superstars as defined by RPR:
Major Historical Superstar: 1.100 and higher
Historical Superstar: 1.000 to 1.099
Superstar: .900 to .999
Generally, to be a major contender to win the Quest, you must start with one of the following:
1. A Major Historical Superstar and some damn good coaching if that's the only Superstar you have.
2. Two Historical Superstars
3. One Historical Superstar and two Superstars
4. Three Superstars
Although it is difficult for a team to get any one of these superstar combinations, this is more or less the mimumum requirement to be able to have a truly good shot at winning a Ring. No one said this stuff was easy.
Is it possible to be a major contender, or even to win the Quest without meeting any of these qualifying Superstar requirements? Yes, but the odds are fairly strongly against you, even if you have outstanding coaching, outstanding defense, outstanding hustle, outstanding whatever.
So always remember: the real skill level of players is at or very near the top of the mountain when it comes to winning the Quest.
Don't forget too that, due to the so-called crowding out factor, the "perfectly measured in a vacuum" Real Player Ratings of many of the players on the best teams are about 10% higher than the already very high actual RPRs that you see.
DWYANE WADE................................................ WADE ON THE MOVE
COACH DOC RIVERS AND POINT GUARD RAJON RONDO
