Quest for the Ring (QFTR) Investigates: Did Dwyane Wade Intentionally Injure Rajon Rondo in the 2011 Playoffs?

Quest for the Ring (QFTR) was looking forward to a Boston Celtics versus Chicago Bulls East Final in 2011 but that was derailed when Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo’s elbow was fairly badly injured with a dislocated left elbow as a result of him being recklessly knocked down to the hardwood by Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat in quarter three of game three of the Boston-Miami East semifinal series. And that ended any chance of a Boston-Chicago series. After that it was going to be Miami-Chicago. And then Chicago blew that series making the 2011 playoffs even more disturbing than they already were.

As for Rondo, shockingly (but if you know Rondo not surprisingly at all) he played out much of the rest of the series despite the fairly bad injury. Of course, Rondo lost use of his left arm and had it wrapped in a sleeve and hanging lifeless by his side, but play on he did. Everyone knew the Celtics didn’t have a chance in hell to win the series without Rondo and since Rondo refused to wave the white flag after being injured no one was going to stop the Leagues’ first or second best point guard with the massive heart from continuing to play even after the injury. But as you would expect he was subsequently less than half as effective as he would have been had the incident not happened.

In this Report we investigate whether Wade intentionally tried to injure Rondo and as a result very possibly cost the Celtics the series (allowing Wade’s Heat team to win a series it would have lost otherwise).

To say the least, these two players are not your everyday run of the mill players. We’ll start by showing you the sky high Real Player Ratings of the two players we are talking about.

2010-2011 REAL PLAYER RATINGS OF THE PLAYERS INVOLVED
Dwyane Wade >>>
He is officially a shooting guard but used to be a point guard in college and so in the NBA he is also known unofficially as a combo guard (shooting guard / point guard).

--Overall 1.072 (Historical superstar)
--Offense .652
--Defense .420

Rajon Rondo >>>
He has been for several years one of the very best point guards in the League (probably the second best behind Chris Paul to be exact)

--Overall 1.080 (Historical superstar)
--Offense .619
--Defense .460

Note how razor tight the Ratings for these two ended up; they finished with almost the exact same overall Rating.

It’s no secret that QFTR thinks that Rajon Rondo is the ultimate, near perfect point guard, but as always QFTR will be fair and will look at everything involved in this incident fairly and objectively. And for the record, QFTR would like to see BOTH Dwyane Wade AND Rajon Rondo, both of whom have won the Quest for the Ring once already, win it at least one more time before they retire from basketball.

Now let’s find out about motivations Dwyane Wade had (or at least might have had) to try to get rid of Rondo. He had at least four big to huge reasons to seek to injure Rondo. To be fair to Wade, remember as you read these that just because someone has reasons to play dirty or commit a crime, it doesn’t automatically follow that the person actually did play dirty or commit a crime. So these are reasons Wade MIGHT have used to justify trying to get rid of Rondo. I am not right at this moment and nor should you be right here and now reaching a verdict until all of the evidence has been heard and seen.

GET RID OF RONDO POSSIBLE MOTIVATION ONE: BOSTON ALMOST CERTAINLY CAN NOT WIN THE SERIES WITHOUT RONDO
First, to state the obvious, Rondo was one of the three historical superstars on the Boston Celtics (along with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce). Anytime an historical superstar is eliminated from a playoff series due to injury (and assuming no other injuries on either team) there is a strong probability that that players’ team no longer has any chance of winning the series. In Rondo’s case this was especially obviously the case (that Boston would not have a chance without him) because it was obvious that Boston Coach Doc Rivers and the Celtics were very heavily relying on Rondo’s absolute cream of the crop point guard play to run the offense. Whereas Miami was badly organized offensively in general and at point guard in particular, Boston was the opposite.

Losing Rondo would be devastating to Boston. Without Rondo, Boston’s offense would be rendered somewhere between much less competitive at best and completely ruined at worse. The midpoint of that range would be the most likely result of Rondo being eliminated and that midpoint could be described as “far less competitive” or by the single word “crippled”. So to be clear, if Rondo were knocked out of the series, the Celtics’ offense would be far less competitive than it was supposed to be and so therefore Boston would now very likely lose the series.

Rondo’s backup was undersized, defensive liability Nate Robinson who Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers did not trust at all to run the badly in need of a good, real, point guard Celtics offense. Whereas, if Rondo were not injured, Boston could easily have come back and won the series despite having fallen behind two games to none after playing the first two games in Miami. It would not have been the first time Boston had come back in a series in recent years. In fact, the Celtics have had a bad habit of falling behind in playoff series by one or by two games only to win them later on.

Incidentally, The Celtics also in recent years have had a bad habit of losing regular season games to mediocre and bad teams and therefore losing home court advantage in playoff series. They could have had home court advantage against Miami in 2011 but they blew it by losing several regular season games that they obviously should have won.

GET RID OF RONDO POSSIBLE MOTIVATION TWO: WITH RONDO GONE, WADE’S PERSONAL JOB WOULD BECOME FAR EASIER
The second huge motivation Wade had to try to knock Rondo out the series was more personal and direct. As you can see from the Real Player Ratings above, both of these players are outstanding guard defenders. But note that Rondo is an even better defender than is Wade. Rondo is one of the very best guard defenders in the NBA. As you might expect, Rondo was often guarding Wade in this series. Wade expertly mixes drives with jumpers and about the only thing that can possibly force him to have a not so great game is one of the best guard defenders in the League. Regardless of what you finally believe about this incident, you have to admit that Wade must have been worried that Rondo would eventually force him to have at least one sub par game and that (b) even just one of those might cost Miami the series.

So a very possible second motivation for Wade to have tried to intentionally injure Rajon Rondo was that if Rondo were out of the series, it would be far, far easier for Wade to dominate offensively and to personally and directly make sure that Miami would win the series. Boston had no other guard defender remotely as good as Rondo. Rondo’s backup Nate Robinson is almost worthless as a defender compared with Rondo. With Rondo out, Wade knew that he could practically (and perhaps literally) win a game or two by himself.

GET RID OF RONDO POSSIBLE MOTIVATION THREE: WADE KNEW THAT WITH RONDO AROUND THE CELTICS WOULD WIN AT LEAST THREE GAMES IN THE SERIES
Even though at the time that Wade took down Rondo Miami was leading two games to none, due to winning games one and two in Miami, Boston was up 60-50 in game three in Boston, with seven minutes to go in the third quarter. If a team has scored only 50 points half way through the third quarter, that team has been locked down offensively (or at least almost locked down). Boston was clearly on their way to a home win based first and foremost on their stifling home court defense but based secondly on Rondo’s absolute top of the line point guard play. Then they would most likely win game four at home to even the series two games a piece, setting up a grueling six or seven game series where Miami would most likely have to win BOTH game five and game seven in Miami in order to beat Boston. Why? Because Boston would very likely have won all three of their home games (games three, four, and six of the series) using the stifling defense and Rondo heroics to do so.

If you have any doubts about this, consider how the regular season games went:

Tuesday, Oct 26: Boston beats Miami in Boston 88-80
Thursday, Nov 11: Boston beats Miami in Miami 112-107
Sunday, Feb. 13: Boston beats Miami in Boston 85-82
Sunday, Apr. 10: Miami beats Boston in Miami 100-77

In each of the two regular season games in Boston, Miami’s offense was shut down completely (relatively speaking; it is impossible to literally completely shut down a basketball offense). When a defense limits the other team to less than 85 points you can say that the other team has been shut down or locked down. There is a big difference between, say, 84 points and 92 points and smart, experienced players such as Wade know all about it: allowing 92 points is decent defense but allowing 84 points is very impressive, lock down defense where the game is completely won with defense (except in the rare case where both teams are holding each other under 85 points).

Obviously Dwyane Wade was fully aware that the Heat had been locked down (or shut down) by the Celtics in both of the regular season games. And the Heat were at the time that Wade went after Rondo being locked down once again. The bottom line point is, the Heat were being locked down by the Celtics’ defense every single time they were playing in Boston, with no exceptions. Miami’s offense simply could not function competitively in Boston! So obviously Wade might be motivated to try to unlock the Miami offense by trying to get rid of Rondo.

If the Heat were doomed to lose three games in Boston, they would be in substantial jeopardy of losing the series. If Boston won all three home games, they could win the series by winning game five in Miami OR by winning game seven in Miami.

GET RID OF RONDO POSSIBLE MOTIVATION FOUR: WADE HAD TO AT LEAST REACH THE NBA FINALS OR HE WOULD LOSE SOME REPUTATION (AND LOSE A HUGE ONCE IN A LIFETIME) OPPORTUNITY
The third motivation Wade had to try to knock Rondo out of the series was that if Rondo and the Boston Celtics had defeated Wade and the Miami Heat in the East semifinals, then it would be true that the Heat never even reached the East final (let alone the NBA final) despite having three major superstars on their team: Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh. (Note that Bosh was a superstar with a Rating of .962 in 2010-11; he was not quite an historical superstar with a rating over 1.000. But on the other hand, Bosh could easily be an historical superstar were LeBron James not on the team getting some rebounds and scores that Bosh would otherwise have made.)

THE EVIDENCE
To convict someone of a crime you show evidence and you show motivation. We have shown way more than enough motivation for Wade to have intentionally tried to get rid of Rondo. Now we have to show you the evidence. That evidence is embarrassingly easy to get our hands on; it’s sitting at YouTube!



As you can see, Wade clearly made some kind of a “hardwood tackle” on Rondo. The announcer instantly stated: “And then Wade pulls down Rondo!” He twisted Rondo down toward the floor creating an awkward fall trajectory for Rondo. At a bare minimum this was a flagrant foul.

THE KEY QUESTION
There is a key question to look at to try to figure out whether Wade was committing a dirty flagrant foul; whether he was rolling the dice and hoping that Rondo would be injured and mostly or completely knocked out of the series.

Did Wade think Rondo had any chance to get the ball before it went out of bounds? If he did then you might make the case that Wade was just getting rough to make sure that Rondo was prevented from chasing after the loose ball. If Rondo did get the ball before it went out of bounds then Miami would lose possession to Boston and more importantly it would have most likely have been a steal / fast break / easy score for Rondo and the Celtics. If instead the ball goes out of bounds than Miami gets the ball back and Rondo gets neither a steal nor a score.

When you look at the video you can easily see that there is no way anyone including Rondo could possibly have run down and stopped the ball from going out of bounds. The ball went out of bounds quickly because it moved at a sharp angle toward the sideline. Had the ball not been at any angle to the sideline but instead have been heading straight back to the baseline at the opposite end of the court (in which case it could have been chased down) Wade might have been justified in getting rough while boxing out Rondo.

Now you have to understand that a superstar guard in the NBA can instinctively tell at least roughly what the trajectory and the speed of a loose ball is in general and also what the angle to the sideline is (which determines whether there is a chance someone can stop it from going out). A basketball is easy to see with peripheral vision and superstar guards are obviously experts in perceiving where loose basketballs are heading. I don’t see how it’s possible that Wade did not know that the ball was going out of bounds regardless of whether Rondo was able to go after it or not.

Also, even if Wade mistakenly thought that there was a chance that Rondo could have prevented the ball from going out of bounds (and could have completed a steal) instead of committing a rough or flagrant foul Wade could have pivoted around and gone after the ball himself. Had he done that, at the least Wade would have reached the ball at the same time Rondo did, and could have at the least tied the ball up for a jump ball. The bottom line is that Wade was not justified and this is true whether what he did was just a rough foul or was an attempt to injure Rondo and eliminate him from the series.

THE VERDICT
It’s obvious that Wade is fiercely competitive and was going all out in 2011 to try to win The Quest for the Ring for the second time in his career. Wade is ultra competitive; he may be the most fiercely competitive guard in the League. I actually felt a little sorry for the guy when he was the only superstar on Miami (before LeBron James and Chris Bosh arrived). In those days Wade would play lights out, leaving everything out on the court but Miami would lose because, well, they just didn’t have enough star power.

True, superstars need to be very competitive. But if they take it too far (and get carried away and become insanely competitive) then they can end up playing dirty and violating the rules. In sports you are a loser if you violate the rules whether you have technically won or not. In life you are a loser if you commit crimes whether you have a lot of money or not.

QFTR concludes that Dwyane Wade got carried away and went after Rondo in a way that created the possibility that Rondo would be injured and knocked out of the series. At a minimum it should have been a major flagrant foul (and not just a measly ordinary foul which is what it actually was called as; what a joke that was). More realistically, it was a dirty, unsportsmanlike play because by throwing Rondo down so that Rondo went down with no balance Wade had to know at least unconsciously that Rondo could be injured. Again, superstar guards in the NBA understand the difference between awkward, unbalanced crashes to the floor and balanced ones. Superstar point guards are not idiots or morons and they know about different kinds of falls and how some kinds of falls create far higher chances of injuries than other kinds.

Anyone can be motivated by good or by bad (or in more complicated situations, sometimes by both at once). In this case, Wade was making a super human effort in the series and he got carried away. And he had all kinds of motivations to want Rondo out of the series. When he got carried away, Wade ended up motivated by bad factors. And so we strongly think that Wade did in fact go after Rondo in a way where at least unconsciously and very possibly consciously he was trying to injure Rondo and knock him out of the series.

I hope you don’t need me to state the obvious, but just in case, it’s bad (and against the rules in every single sport) to intentionally try to injure someone so that the competition will be over and the winner by default will be the one who violated the rules and violated sportsmanship in general. If it were in the rules of basketball that it was alright to try to injure someone then (a) I wouldn’t be doing basketball and (b) I would be covering the collapsing of the labor market, the economy, and the stock market (not that little old me would be able to stop any of those things from collapsing).

It is clearly possible that superstar basketball players might try to intentionally injure another superstar player. This is an incident where that happened.

In a perfect world Wade would have been thrown out the series and Boston might have been able to win the series even with Rondo hobbled. Of course, Boston might have lost the series even if Wade had been thrown out the series, because without Rondo at full strength, the Celtics were absolutely shrunk to midget status offensively. Rondo was (and presumably still is) that good.

What actually happened was that although Rondo returned to game three (lifeless, dangling left arm and all) and although Boston doggedly won game three, the Celtics lost the next game, game four, in overtime at home. Now they were behind three games to one. It was then easy for Miami to beat Boston with Rondo still badly banged up in game five in Miami. So thanks to Wade's successful attempt to get Rondo banged up, a series that had "Boston wins in six" or at least "Boston wins in seven" all over it instead ended up to be a depressing Miami four games to one thing.

EDITORIAL NOTES
First, don’t jump to any false conclusions about how QFTR has once again failed to deliver a promised Report. The promised super important Report about 2011 Quest winning Dallas Mavericks Coach Rick Carlisle is still coming. This Report was a less complicated subject I have wanted to cover for many months. Producing this gets me “back in the flow,” or in other words warned up to produce the bigger and more complicated Report on Carlisle.

Technically and editorially speaking, this was a “now for something new and unusual” type of posting. Assuming that more incidents of this type happen in the future, we hope to have time to cover them just as we did this one. We’ll probably headline all the postings of this type “Intentional Injury or Not?” types of Reports. In this type of Report, we will carefully investigate whether a top NBA player, one good enough to help earn Championships on his own, tried to intentionally injure another top NBA player standing in his way.

As with all new kinds of Reports, there is the risk that we will never have the time to produce a lot more of them. But if there is a major incident where the outcome of a playoff series was very likely changed, we will move heaven and earth to try to make the time, I guarantee you that. Regardless of how many of these we produce in the future, this particular Report will undoubtedly be an all-time classic of its type.

The Return of QFTR: What's Cooking at one of the World's Most Sophisticated and Important Basketball Sites

Quest for the Ring (QFTR) the Site that explains in detail how high level basketball games are won and lost) is gradually coming back to life during October 2011 after a shutdown that lasted about 2 1/2 months. October will be a partial return and things will probably be kind of sluggish in October. But by sometime in the first half of November 2011 QFTR will be back to producing at standard speed. By sometime in the second half of November or at the very latest by the first of January 2012 QFTR will be in overdrive (producing at about 25% higher than standard speed). Overdrive will continue until the entire production deficit is wiped out. We strongly suspect that we will be able to wipe out the deficit by the end of 2012. So in other words 2012 is scheduled to be a very, very productive year here at QFTR, both because we are more productive than ever and because production time will be 25% higher than before.

Unlike previous temporary shutdowns, this time the exact reasons for the shutdown were posted; see them in this Report. As with previous temporary shutdowns, the reasons for the shutdown were (a) completely beyond our control (meaning we are not in any way responsible!) and were (b) due to the failure of others to produce a competent, reliable service or product and were (c) due to losses and threats and mayhem created in the wake of the failures. To put it simply and using an analogy, there were big or huge messes created that we had to clean up.

HIGH LEVEL TEXT REPORTS
QFTR is introducing a new designator for the type of Report that (a) is at the very core of the reason for being of the Site, that (b) is ultimately the most important type of Report that we do (but keep in mind that there are other types of Reports that themselves are more important and useful than anything you see on most other basketball sites) and that (c) we wish we had far, far more time to produce. This type of Report is non-formatted and basically consists of text discussion supplemented by evidence. The evidence is often mathematical / statistical in nature.

As you are probably already aware, what we are doing with this project is determining and explaining exactly how basketball games (especially high level ones) are won and lost. So the type of Report referred to here is one that directly discusses the latest information we have about that core mission.

The new designator will be “High Level Text Report” or HLTR for short. In the future, if time ever permits we might go back into the archives and label the existing HLTRs as such. Google blogger has a built in labeling system that has never been used by QFTR and we are gradually building up motivation to spend a lot of time to retroactively use it.

However, anyone who is smart enough to read an HLTR is also smart enough to find them on his or her own right now. Lists of titles can be used to spot HLTRs and we have several lists of titles systems in place. Or, smart people can use the Google custom search; there are about four search boxes scattered throughout the QFTR home page. Although I can’t guarantee anything regarding Google Search and although in the early years Google completely ignored QFTR, in the last 18 months or so Google has been indexing many QFTR reports into the Google search engine, meaning I presume that the results you get from a custom search are much better now than they used to be.

If it were me looking for stuff I would use BOTH lists of titles AND Google custom search to find what I was looking for at QFTR. For example, after looking through some title lists I might type “point guard” into a custom search box and go from there. On another occasion, I might type “reserves” to see what QFTR has reported about non-starters. On another occasion, I might type “good coaching”. On another occasion, I might type “bad coaching”. And so on and so forth.

Again, HLTRs are NON-formatted (or free-flowing if you prefer). Formatted Reports are very carefully designed, hard wired presentations of information, generally statistical in nature. Real Player Ratings, Real Team Ratings, and Real Coach Ratings are the most important and most common types of formatted Reports. Formatted Reports efficiently and effectively feature a very large amount of information in a small amount of space.

Before we get back to regularly scheduled Reports there will be a High Level Text Report (HLTR) on Rick Carlisle.

SORRY HATERS, BUT QFTR WAS NOT CALLED INTO QUESTION WHEN CARLISLE WON THE 2011 QUEST
One annoying thing about both high level projects in general and about your writer/producer’s production experiences in particular is that things happen on a regular basis that at first glance seem to call into question the whole validity of the project. For many years, I have been thinking of myself as having the “worst luck of anyone”. And also, as being “the victim of my own success”.

For example, we had the 2009 “George Karl miracle” where seemingly by dumb luck Karl and the Nuggets stumbled onto a half way decent strategy and won two playoff series even though we had predicted that he would not win any playoff series that year (back before we realized that no one can possibly reliably predict the future in that way).

What just happened last year is another perfect example. In late 2010 we produced (at very high time cost by the way) and posted a much improved Coach Rating System, backed up by more hard information than ever. With great fanfare, it was reported that there was another current NBA head coach besides George Karl who has a track record as a terrible playoffs coach. And it was Rick Carlisle! Yes, that Rick Carlisle, the one who months later swept one of the all time best basketball coaches Phil Jackson and went on to win the 2011 NBA Championship! And QFTR reported about seven months prior to that that Carlisle was just about the worst playoffs coach in the NBA!

So doesn’t that mean that QFTR is worthless and should be shut down? No, only in the dreams of the haters does that make QFTR worthless.

QFTR CAN NOT BE AND IS NOT IN THE OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS BUSINESS
QFTR is mostly out of the prediction business, not because we don’t stand by our ratings but because the ratings can not officially or automatically predict the future. Players, coaches, managers, and owners sometimes change their ways, sometimes for the worse but more often for the better. Every single rating report we put out tells you how the player, coach, team, manager, or owner did for the time period covered, up to the present. At one time we thought it might be possible, but QFTR no longer pretends to know what is going to happen in the future.

Although basketball is more complicated than most people think it is, it is not so complicated that players, coaches, teams, managers, or owners can not change their ways and suddenly start to win games that they used to lose. Keep in mind that the core objective of QFTR is to tell people exactly how games and playoff series are won and lost. So the whole idea is to get the players, the coaches, the teams, the managers, and the owners who are doing the wrong thing(s) to change their ways and start doing the right thing(s). So for example if a player with a low Real Player Rating or a coach with a low Real Coach Rating changes what he is doing and becomes a much better player or a much better coach than that is exactly what QFTR wants to happen. If players and coaches were rarely going to change QFTR would be much less valuable, but players and coaches can and do change.

We can not and do not pretend to know which players and coaches are going to be smart enough to optimize their games or their coaching in the future. For one thing, we don’t really have any idea how smart these players and coaches are. For example, there have been numerous debates at QFTR headquarters about how smart or dumb Carmelo Anthony is, laugh out loud. And about how smart or dumb LeBron James is, and so on and so forth.

We pretty much know what the CURRENT basketball IQs of Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James etc. are (which by the way puts us way ahead of most other basketball sites) but we can’t predict how those IQs will be changing in the future because for one thing, whether a basketball IQ will go up or not in the future depends on how smart in general someone is and we just don’t have enough solid information on that. I mean, we might think that LeBron James is kind of dumb overall, but we don’t know exactly how dumb he is, and because as mentioned previously basketball is complicated but not extremely complicated, even a relatively dumb but very experienced basketball player might be able to play smarter in the future (because experience playing and winning and losing the game can teach someone the realities and the "secrets" of the game). And the same applies to coaches.

For another thing, we don’t really have any idea whether if those players and coaches and managers and owners did read QFTR whether these people would believe the information or not. (We provide more than enough evidence for everything we claim but chances are you would not believe how many doubting Thomas’s and haters there are out there). Finally, even if a player or coach or manager or owner reads QFTR and believes it, that still doesn’t guarantee they are going to change their ways. They might stick with doing things the wrong way because they think they can’t successfully change, or because they are worried that if they do change they will end up with less playing time, and/or a lower salary, and/or or a greater chance of being traded or fired.

The point is, making predictions about how players or coaches or teams or managers or owners are going to change for the better or worse in the future is a mostly hopeless venture. Back in the early days of QFTR, it was nice to dream that you could predict some of this, but the reality is that you can not very successfully predict any changes in these people and teams.

So official, valid predictions are extremely difficult and so QFTR is just about completely and totally out of the official predictions business. The User Guides to the various QFTR Ratings Reports remind users that players, coaches, teams, managers, and owners can and do change so that the Reports are historical summaries and are not intended to be used for future predictions.

UNOFFICIAL PREDICTIONS
Of course, having said that, the Reports often do accurately and actually predict the future; for example, players with very high Real Player Ratings continue to be very good players in the years that follow. And QFTR can not resist the temptation to unofficially predict the future from time to time. But over the years we have gradually reduced the number of unofficial predictions that me make. We generally only predict the future when we know for sure that a player, coach, team, manager, or owner is so dumb or so stuck in a rut that he, she, or it will not be making any changes for the better (or worse) for the foreseeable future.

RICK CARLISLE
Therefore, when Rick Carlisle won the 2011 Quest for the Ring there was no hand wringing and there were no discussions at QFTR about “what went wrong” or about how QFTR should be shut down. Nothing went wrong because (a) the Real Coach Rating Report in question was the situation as it existed at the time and was not intended to precisely or automatically or officially predict the future and (b) Rick Carlisle could and actually did have a very different team in 2011 than he did in the years when he lost playoff games that he should have won and (c) Rick Carlisle could and actually did change his coaching from when he was losing games he was supposed to win to 2011.

As previously mentioned, before we get back to regularly scheduled Reports we will treat ourselves and our readers to a particularly important High Level Text Report (HLTR) on Rick Carlisle. We are determining and will be reporting exactly how Rick Carlisle’s 2011 Dallas Mavericks team was different from his 2002 Detroit Pistons team when Carlisle lost a series to the Boston Celtics 4-1 that he should have won by about 4-3. And we are determining and will be reporting exactly how Rick Carlisle changed his coaching from the one year and team to the other.
So we are actually quite happy that the Real Coach Rating Report from late 2010 reported Carlisle as almost as bad as George Karl and then nevertheless Carlisle won the 2011 Quest. This allows us to efficiently and effectively make progress on the core mission: to explain exactly how high level basketball games and playoff series are won and lost. So don’t miss the Report on Rick Carlisle that will be posted in early October.

RICK CARLISLE VERSUS GEORGE KARL
The Real Coach Ratings Report from late 2010 identified Rick Carlisle and George Karl as the worst playoffs coaches in the League: two peas in a pod statistically. But had we been asked at the time for an official statement, we would have stated that we are virtually 100% certain that George Karl can not possibly win the Quest but that we can’t know with that kind of certainty whether Carlisle will ever win the Quest or not. There is a very simple reason for this. At that time (and to a lesser extent right now) we knew George Karl in much more detail than we knew Rick Carlisle. So we would have said (and indirectly did say in the User Guide) that it is quite unlikely but not at all impossible that Carlisle will someday win the Quest.

So in general we can not and do not make official predictions. The one current exception is that, yes, we unofficially AND officially predict that George Karl can not ever and will not ever win The Quest for the Ring. At the moment, Karl is the only player, coach, manager or owner for which we will issue that statement. In the future, expect that it will be as rare as it is now. It’s not only that we know exactly what Karl does wrong. It’s also that we know Karl well enough to know that he REJECTS the strategies and tactics that allow players and teams and teams to win The Quest for the Ring. And we know that Karl is very stubborn about his beliefs in this area. Unless Karl radically changes (which is close to impossible) he will continue to follow bad and inferior strategies and tactics and will continue to refuse to follow good strategies and tactics for as long as he works in basketball. Right now we can’t say anything like that about any other coach.

By the way and for the record, at this point, QFTR has already in five years been so useful and successful overall that there is probably nothing that could happen (short of the end of the world or at least the end of the US) which would warrant even a discussion about shutting QFTR down. Not so long ago, specifically when the Denver Nuggets were chock loaded with offensive talent (before most of them left town for one reason or another) QFTR was theoretically in some jeopardy, but at this point, even if George Karl did win The Quest for the Ring we would most likely NOT shut down QFTR.

THE RETURN OF QFTR: REPORTS ON THE WAY
When the shutdown struck we were roughly two thirds of the way through posting the final 2010-11 Real Player Ratings by team. We will soon be posting the remaining teams (the ones alphabetically following Oklahoma Thunder). Besides those team Ratings Reports, we will be posting, during October and into November as necessary:

--How Dallas Mavericks Coach Rick Carlisle Went From Worst to First

--Real Player Ratings for NBA Players League Wide, Final 2010-11 Ratings

--Total Real Production of NBA Players League Wide, Final 2010-11 Ratings

--NBA Players Rated and Ranked by the Real Quality of Their Offense, 2010-11 Season, League Wide

--NBA Players Rated and Ranked by the Real Quality of Their Defense, 2010-11 Season, League Wide

--NBA Point Guards Final Real Player Ratings and Real Player Production, 2010-11

--NBA Point Guards Final Offensive and Defensive Sub Ratings, 2010-11

--NBA Shooting Guards Final Real Player Ratings and Real Player Production, 2010-11

--NBA Shooting Guards Final Offensive and Defensive Sub Ratings, 2010-11

--NBA Small Forwards Final Real Player Ratings and Real Player Production, 2010-11

--NBA Small Forwards Final Offensive and Defensive Sub Ratings, 2010-11

--NBA Power Forwards Final Real Player Ratings and Real Player Production, 2010-11

--NBA Power Forwards Final Offensive and Defensive Sub Ratings, 2010-11

--NBA Centers Final Real Player Ratings and Real Player Production, 2010-11

--NBA Centers Final Offensive and Defensive Sub Ratings, 2010-11

ENTIRE PROJECTS HAVE BEEN SLASHED AND BURNED!
I am happy to report that whatever needed to be cut in other Quest Internet projects (up to and including entire projects) has been cut to pave the way for the full preservation of this project. I’ll be damned if the failures of electric power, computer systems and services, or even the collapse of parts of society are going to leave me with no Internet production at all. I take a lot from the Internet and one way or another I am going to give something valuable back.

So welcome back y’all to Quest for the Ring (QFTR): “The World’s Most Sophisticated Basketball Site”.

POST SCRIPT
I am so happy that so many Nuggets players have escaped the George Karl trap. But J.R. Smith took it a little too far for my tastes by escaping the whole freaking country. He went to China. What bugs me is that since China likes to hide things and since I don't know Chinese I tend to doubt I am going to be able to track exactly how Smith is doing over there. (But if anyone among those who can't understand Chinese can dig that up it will be me). But I was looking forward to tracking J.R. Smith on a NBA team other than the Denver Nuggets and now I get denied that anticipated delight. So I am a little pissed, but just a little because at least he escaped George Karl, laugh out loud.