Old Nuggets Return & Lose to Grizzlies 133-118
The Nuggets could not keep playing at the very high level they were at when they beat the Jazz on April 11 and the Hornets on April 13, and were almost run out of the arena in the 4th quarter of this game by the Grizzlies. Denver lost 133-118, and the Nugget's season-long winning streak ended at 8 games. The Nuggets could not keep up with, nor slow down, the hard charging Grizzlies, who had 30 fast break points to the Nugget's 21.
The Grizzlies were playing after three days off, while the Nuggets were playing with no days off, but the Grizzlies were hurting from injuries and have the worst record in the league, so the external factors more or less offset, and the Nuggets had no business getting hammered in the 4th quarter 38-23 and losing the game 133-118. The old, bad Nuggets came back with a vengeance for this game. Not only did the Nuggets play lazy and inept defense, but they also had 21 turnovers just when you thought they had turned over a new leaf in that area. In the Oklahoma game the night before, the Nuggets had just 8 turnovers. In this one, Blake had 7 turnovers, Iverson had 6, and the other Nuggets combined had 8. The Grizzlies had 14 steals against the Nuggets while the Nuggets had just 7 steals against the Grizzlies. The average number of steals in an NBA game is 7, so surrendering 14 steals is too sloppy by a mile.
In last night's nearly perfect game in Oklahoma, the Nuggets committed only 13 fouls, while they were called for 31 fouls in this game. The Grizzlies were called for just 21 fouls, which is about 1 fewer than the average for an NBA game. Even allowing for the possibility that the referees in this game were a little tough on the Nuggets, it is clear the Nuggets were much less intense on defense in this game than they have been over the last few weeks, and therefore much less able to avoid hacking the guy on the other team who has the ball.
The Nuggets made 45 of 86 shots for an accuracy of .523. So on shooting, there was no dropoff from the outstanding shooting they did during much of the winning streak. This is positive, because it shows that the Nuggets are still much better now than they were six weeks ago. Up until 4 or 6 weeks ago, whenever the Nuggets broke down, they would break down defensively, on turnovers, and on scoring all at the same time, but now when they break down, they do so on just two out of three of those things, so that is real improvement for you.
However, the Spurs will win almost any game where the Nuggets break down in any one of those categories. The Nuggets need to figure out ways to bend without breaking down completely, and they need to do this really fast.
The Grizzlies were playing without starting PG Damon Stoudamire and without starting SF Mike Miller, as well as without rookie Rudy Gay, who has been starting at shooting guard. These three being missing was not a big problem against the self-destructing Nuggets, though. Tarence Kinsey, a rooke G-F who has been averaging 7.3 points a game, had 28 points in this one on 10 of 18 shooting, and he also made 4 steals. Chucky Atkins, the veteran PG, had 28 points on 9 of 14 shooting, and he had 12 assists and 2 steals. Also leading the Grizzlies was PF Hakim Warrick, who had 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting, and he added 11 rebounds and 1 steal.
For the Nuggets, Nene made all 6 layups and all 3 dunks attempted, and he had 22 points on 10 of 12 shooting and 10 rebounds. Although Camby had just 2 blocks, which is low for him, he had 11 rebounds, as the Nuggets were close to the Grizzlies in rebounding, at least. Although Blake had 12 assists, he also had the 7 turnovers, which was a surprising follow-up for his great game last night in Oklahoma. And Blake's scoring was not enough for a PG who plays 34 minutes: he had only 4 points on 2 of 5 shooting. The Nuggets have two players who simply don't take enough shots in many games, Najera and Blake. No playoff team can afford more than one such player, if that many. The Nugget's coaches do not seem to realize that no matter how much else a player contributes, you can't afford a player who plays alot of minutes but who does not want to try to score.
The most positive thing that happened in this game was Melo making 4 of 9 three pointers. Melo being able to make threes could get the Nuggets an extra win or two against the Spurs. Melo started this season with almost no three point shot, did better in December for a short time before he was suspended, and then had almost no long range shot again when he returned in January. And there was little improvement in February or March. Knowing he could not make many, Melo wisely did not take many three-point shots during all this time. But in April all of a sudden, Melo has made 11 of 27 threes, for a nice accuracy of .407. If this were to continue, it would be massive for the Nuggets, who will have to overcome one of George Karl's biggest mistakes, which is not understanding that you need to play players such as J.R. Smith, who sometimes has a few too many turnovers or a few too many fouls, but who can hit enough three-pointers, make enough fast break dunks, and get enough steals to more than make up for his mistakes. The Nuggets need J.R. Smith against the Spurs, it is that simple. But if Melo can partly make up for the absence of J.R. Smith by making alot of threes, that would help out alot.
To those who thought, based on the 8-game winning streak, that the Nuggets had totally transformed themselves and would go on to the Western Conference finals or even the NBA Championship series this year, my condolences, because you made the mistake that everyone who follows the Nuggets makes over and over until you learn your lesson, which is that you can not predict what the Nuggets are going to do from one game to the next. They don't just play a little differently in different games. No, they go from one extreme to the other, depending mostly on their confidence and discipline levels. And when the Nuggets are good, they are usually even better than the score indicates, and when they are bad, they are as bad or worse than the score indicates.
The Nuggets are a team that is highly skilled, but frequently undisciplined and unpolished. They are a team with alot of raw skills. They are a team that comes from the wrong side of the tracks and that never went to a fancy school. In basketball, a fancy school is a long playoff run. This is a team that wants to win at least as much and probably more so than any other team. And this is also a team that knows full well that it is equal to or better than any team in the League in terms of raw talent. So whenever the Nuggets take the court, they not only want to win more than anyone, they also believe they can win.
The Nuggets have the skills and the will to win, but they do not have enough experience, enough polish, enough discipline, or enough good coaching to make sure they win, as, for example, the Spurs usually do. And when the Nuggets fall behind quickly in a game and remain behind for most of it, as in this game, or else when they lose a substantial lead late in a game, as they have done many times, they know that something is wrong, but they don't know what. What is wrong, mostly, is that the Nuggets do not have enough experience, discipline, or good coaching to make sure that their raw skills result in real wins.
So there is often a conflict between their belief they can win, and what is happening in a given game. When a game goes south, they start losing their confidence, because they do not know how to fix what is wrong. Once the loss in confidence reaches the red zone on the confidence gauge, the Nuggets play even worse, and the opposing team more or less runs away with a game, even though they are much less skilled than the Nuggets. That is what happened in the 4th quarter of this game, and it has been happening about once a week all season long. It will most likely happen for at least one game in the Spurs playoff series, as well. The Nuggets will get blown out by the Spurs in a game, and then come back the next game and play fantastic and win it, as if nothing had gone wrong in the previous game.
Every team occasionally loses some of it's confidence and then gets blown out, but this has been happening to the Nuggets often this season, and not very often at all to the Spurs. Those who think the Spurs will blow out the Nuggets are going to be correct if the Nuggets lose some of their confidence in more than one game at the most during the series. The Nuggets can afford one confidence or discipline breakdown game, and probably no more than that. The Nuggets and the Spurs are opposites; the Nuggets run on skills and confidence, while the Spurs run on experience and discipline. And even if the Nuggets always keep their confidence, and always think that they can win, they will still have the problem of the lack of experience itself, as well as the lack of adequate discipline problem. So they absolutely must keep their confidence to have a chance.
What can be done this late in the season about these confidence and discipline breakdowns? Nothing. Only playing more basketball will give the Nuggets the experience and the discipline that they need. It wouldn't hurt to get better coaching either. Had the Nuggets not made the playoffs, it would have meant no playoff experience this year for this squad, which would have been a big lost opportunity.
Najera played 18 minutes and was 2/4 and 1/2 from the line for 5 points, and he had 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Kleiza played 21 minutes and was 4/8, 0/3 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 10 points, and he had 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and a block.
Blake played 34 minutes and was 2/5 and 0/3 on 3's for 4 points, and he had 12 assists.
J.R. Smith played 20 minutes and was 6/11, 4/9 on 3's, and 3/3 from the line for 19 points. Since Karl is so hung up on Smith's negatives, I'll report that J.R. had 0 turnovers and 4 fouls, nothing to go cry in the corner over.
Nene played 32 minutes and was 10/12 and 2/3 from the line for 22 points, and he had 10 rebounds and 1 assist.
Camby played 30 minutes and was 6/12 and 2/2 from the line for 14 points, and he had 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 assist.
A.I. played for virtually the whole game and was 7/15 and 2/4 on 3's for 16 points, and he had 5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 rebounds.
Melo played for virtually the whole game and was 8/19, 4/9 on 3's, and 8/10 from the line for 28 points, and he had 5 assists, 4 rebounds, and a steal.
The next game is Monday, April 16 in Denver to play the Timberwolves at 7 pm mountain time.
