John Hollinger of ESPN's Preseason Take on the Nuggets
John Hollinger's ESPN Nuggets Preview
NOTE: This is one man's opinion. Hollinger has a high rep because he is one of ESPN's top basketball analysts, and he is a statistical guru. So it's one smart man's opinion. Hollinger can not rock the boat very much without raising eyebrows at ESPN, something he doesn't want to do considering the lofty position he has at ESPN. And these views do not necessarily reflect the views of Nuggets 1. Come back soon for the Nuggets 1 response to this, which will most likely be posted within 24 hours. Bookmark Nuggets 1 now.
2006-07 RECAP
JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
For a team that was summarily dismissed in five games in the first round, the Nuggets had an awfully good team by the end of last season. Unfortunately their opponent in April was eventual champion San Antonio, and while the Nuggets played them as tough as anyone, they were no match for the mighty Spurs.
That series, which featured four nip-and-tuck games before the Spurs ran away with Game 5, gives the Nuggets a dash of optimism heading into this season, but there was an awful lot of drama leading up to that point.
The season began with Kenyon Martin -- whose feuding with George Karl had marred the end of the previous season -- seemingly patching things up with his coach, only to go under the knife for a second microfracture surgery. This was on the other knee, putting the career of the jumping-jack forward in jeopardy. He missed the entire season, naturally, and Denver's decision to give up three first-round picks and pay $91 million over seven years for Martin has never looked worse.
Melo was having a great season until a scuffle broke out at MSG.
Even without K-Mart, the Nuggets got off to a nice start. Carmelo Anthony was leading the league in scoring at midseason, while Nene made an unexpectedly quick recovery from the previous season's knee surgery and stabilized the power forward slot left vacant by Martin's injury. J.R. Smith, stolen from the Bulls for a second-round pick, gave the team a much-needed deep shooter.
Not to mention, oft-injured center Marcus Camby stayed on the court for 70 games, and eventually led the league in blocks and won the league's Defensive Player of the Year award.
Thanks to those events the Nuggets were 14-8 on Dec. 16, when they were in the midst of wrapping up a blowout win against the Knicks. Then their season went upside-down on them. Smith was tackled while going for a layup, a fight ensued, and Anthony improvised a foolish, cowardly slap-and-run maneuver that resulted in a 15-game suspension. Smith got 10 games for his role, leaving the Nuggets devoid of offensive punch.
The loss of Anthony accelerated Denver's timeline on another front: Trading for Allen Iverson. The Nuggets had been interested even before the suspensions, but with their meal ticket suspended they decided to pull the trigger right away on a deal that sent Andre Miller and Joe Smith to Philly for The Answer. While they were at it, Denver also figured one diminutive ball-dominating guard was plenty and sent Earl Boykins to Milwaukee for Steve Blake.
The new-look Nuggets got off to a slow start, as the suspensions and an ankle injury to Iverson left them reeling. They had some chemistry issues to work out, too, as both Iverson and Anthony were used to being the alpha dog, and as a result Denver went 3-7 in its first 10 games with the dynamic duo. The Nuggies even briefly fell under .500, at 29-31 in mid-March, before recovering with a 10-1 April.
However, perhaps a bigger story from that season-ending finish is how both Iverson and Anthony saw their numbers drop off after the trade. The big question at the time was whether there were enough shots to go around for both of them; the answer based on the end of last season is perhaps there isn't.
Of course, other problems also played into this. With Iverson taking over at shooting guard, Smith went to the bench and the Nuggets once again found themselves short of 3-point shooting. Denver led the NBA in points in the paint and was second in fast-break points, but the lack of a perimeter threat kept them from ranking in the league's elite overall. For the season, Denver ranked 28th in the league in 3-point percentage, and individually Smith and Linas Kleiza were the only ones to make more than a third of their tries.
With Iverson's arrival pushing both of those players deeper in the rotation, it allowed opponents to sag into the paint, forcing both Iverson and Anthony to drive into crowds. Thus, the dropoff in scoring from Denver's two stars might have been less a result of bad chemistry than of improper personnel surrounding them.
That said, the ending of the Spurs series had to give Nuggets fans pause as well. Iverson acted like he was back in Philadelphia, continually overdribbling and forcing shots instead of deferring to Anthony -- the one player who gives San Antonio defensive ace Bruce Bowen serious fits.
Through it all the Nuggets managed to be a pretty good offensive team, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency, but I don't think they made the Iverson deal and chose to pay luxury tax this year to get "pretty good." Denver has given itself a slim window to win a championship before Iverson and Camby lose it, and to get there with this cast they'll need to be a top-five offensive team.
At the other end of the court, many did a quick eyeball of Denver's stats and labeled the Nuggets a poor defensive team. But that simply wasn't true. It was a failure to understand the impact of pace, mainly: The Nuggets played at the league's second-fastest clip, and thus their points allowed per game averages were high. Additionally, Denver gave up a fairly high field goal percentage, further confusing the masses: Their 46.0 percent allowed was above the league average of 45.8 percent.
Opponent Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt: 2006-07 Leaders
TEAM OPP. FGA/FTA
Phoenix .268
San Antonio .272
Denver .274
New Orleans/OKC .280
Toronto .290
League average .327
But Denver was very good at one key element: avoiding fouls. The Nuggets permitted just .274 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranking a close third behind Phoenix and San Antonio in that category (see chart). As a result, the team ranked 11th in opponent true shooting percentage against, and that was good enough to help the team rank ninth overall in defensive efficiency.
That's a good enough defensive effort to win big, especially the way this roster is built. But to get there, the Nuggets will have to dial up the offense. They also might want to run some extra laps after practice -- the mile-high air and fast pace were supposed to tire their opponents, but Denver was outscored badly in the fourth quarter last season.
OFF-SEASON MOVES
JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
It was a very quiet offseason in the Rockies, as the Nuggets opted to see how last season's big move for Iverson plays out before attempting any further surgery. Denver also has some financial issues to consider, as it will be well over the luxury tax this year and next before Iverson's contract expires in 2009.
The Nuggets clearly knew this when they made the trade, and thus I don't expect them to pull a Phoenix and start shedding contracts left and right. Rather, it appears the plan is to pay the tax while pursuing a ring during this two-year window and re-assess in '09.
Draft day passed without a whisper, as Denver already had traded both picks -- one for Martin, the other for J.R. Smith. The Nuggets are viewing late-season pickup Von Wafer as their "draft pick" after he led the CBA in 3-point shooting, and on a team in need of some long-range help he might fill a niche.
One other financial consideration to keep in mind is that the Nuggets still have a cap exception worth nearly $3 million from the Boykins trade. That could come in handy if they go in search of backcourt help at the trade deadline.
• Signed Chucky Atkins, let Steve Blake leave
Denver let Blake cash in his solid half-season as a Nugget and went for more of a pure shooter in Atkins, a reasonable move considering the team's need for players who can spread the floor. There's some concern with playing the 5-11 Atkins next to the 6-0 Iverson in the backcourt, but with Camby guarding their backs the hope is that the Nuggets' guards won't be burned on the blocks.
• Traded Reggie Evans, Ricky Sanchez for Steven Hunter, Bobby Jones
A surplus power forward who was going to see little action, the Nuggets converted Evans into Hunter, a backup center who gives them a nice cap bonus -- Hunter's contract expires a year earlier. Hunter had his best season with a running outfit in Phoenix in 2004-05, so he should benefit from Denver's fast pace. He's also decent insurance for if, or should I say when, Camby goes on the shelf.
BIGGEST STRENGTH/WEAKNESS
JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
Offensively, the Nuggets can beat you two ways. First, they can run you into submission, which is their preferred style in Denver's altitude especially. But teams that cut off the break still must contend with the Nuggets in the halfcourt, and that means three separate problematic matchups.
The most vexing is Anthony, who has the size to post up smaller forwards but is also unusually quick for his size and capable of stepping outside for jumper. Anthony is at his best when he's going to the hoop, but his outstanding outside shooting for Team USA the past two summers shows he's capable of burning opponents from the perimeter, too.
Then there's Iverson, who at 32 remains as quick as any player in basketball. Teams often have to guard him with their own little quick guys, most of whom aren't used to chasing big-time scorers through off-ball screens or defending against isolations on the wing. As an added plus, he added more of a passing element to his game in Denver -- at least until the Spurs series -- and should continue to embrace that aspect. Denver was 11-0 when he had double-figure assists last season.
Finally, don't sleep on Nene. The Brazilian big man gave the Nuggets a solid post presence, especially in the second half of last season when his knee started feeling better. At 6-11, 268 pounds, he demands a big defender -- if not a double-team. After the break last season, he averaged 13.0 points per game and shot 62.4 percent.
Biggest Weakness: Starter No. 5
The Nuggets have four-fifths of an awesome team. If they can complete the quintet they'll be as good as any team in basketball, but that's where the questions start. Atkins should be an improvement on Blake, even though he's coming off a Fluke Rule season, but he's 33 and short so the pairing with Iverson is a bit troubling from the defensive end.
Other candidates offer possibilities too. Smith has mad talent but can't keep his head on straight, exemplified by some loopy plays in the Spurs series that ended with Karl publicly removing him from the rotation. Smith's shooting is the perfect antidote to the Nuggets' problems, but his presence forces Iverson to play the point. Additionally, his defense needs serious work, as he'd be the one who has to guard the Kobes and Wades of the league.
Another possibility is Kleiza, who had a strong finish to last season, but at 6-8 he's much more comfortable at a forward spot. Wafer is the newest flavor and has the size and athleticism to defend shooting guards, but he's still a bit raw, not to mention completely unproven. Finally, lurking deep on the roster is Yakhouba Diawara, who is the best defender of the bunch but might be the worst offensive player in the state of Colorado.
If you aren't impressed by these choices, join the club. One senses the Nuggets have one more deal left in them between now and the trade deadline before they have the roster in place that can make a run at a championship.
OUTLOOK
JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
Denver will be good, of course -- with players like Anthony, Iverson, Nene and Camby it's tough not to be. And in the East, that might be enough. But in this conference, it takes 60-win talent just to get in the conversation. The Nuggets won 45 last season, and while they're better than that final won-loss record showed, it still feels like they're a player away from rivaling the Texas trio.
Two important players to watch are Iverson and Camby. Iverson's numbers dropped off alarmingly last season, and if that's more than an adjustment period from the trade the Nuggets need to be worried. Small, quick guards tend to fare very poorly in their 30s; Iverson had defied that trend until last season and seems just as fast as ever, but if he isn't providing All-Star caliber play at one of the guard spots then they're not getting anywhere near the title.
Similarly, Camby's injuries are always a concern. Denver can live with it if he's hurt in January, but if he's MIA in May that pretty much sinks its hopes.
But perhaps the biggest wild card is Smith. He has the offensive talent to be the knock-down shooter who spaces the floor for the big guns, and the quickness to be a capable defender who slows up the Ginobilis and McGradys of the West long enough for Camby to ride to the rescue. That only works if he's engaged mentally, though, and the 21-year-old had enough space cadet moments in his first three pro seasons to call that premise into question.
So while the upside for this group is high, they look more like bridesmaids in this conference. Look for Anthony to push for the scoring title while Iverson boosts his assists and takes on a secondary scoring role, and look for the Nuggets to edge out Utah for the division crown. But they're unlikely to make a run beyond that without further tweaking to the roster.
Prediction: 53-29, 1st place in Northwest Division, 5th in Western Conference (4th playoff seed)
The above preseason commentary on the Nuggets is by John Hollinger of ESPN and does NOT necessarily reflect the views of Nuggets 1. Come back soon for the Nuggets 1 response to this, which will most likely be posted here within 24 hours. Bookmark Nuggets 1 now.
