JR Smith Leads the Nuggets Over the Heat 114-113
The Miami Heat had 6 of the 10 players who were mediocre are better, and the Nuggets had 4 of the 6 players who were poor or worse, but an 8/14 3-point shot onslaught by J.R. Smith, an onslaught of 7 blocks by Marcus Camby, and 27 rebounds from Camby and Carmelo Anthony combined, allowed the Nuggets to squeak into overtime and get yet another fortunate win. The Nuggets defeated the Heat in a single overtime period, 114-113. Don’t tell anyone, but the Nuggets are one of this year’s most fortunate teams in terms of getting wins that could easily have been losses. There have been about 8 wins that easily could have been losses so far this year, and only about 1 or at most 2 losses that could easily have been wins.
The Nuggets usually win when Allen Iverson gets more assists than Anthony Carter, which was the case here, as Iverson made 7 assists and the struggling Carter made 1. The Nuggets almost always win when Iverson, along with leading the Nuggets in assists, gets at least 10 assists. Since the Answer came up 3 assists short, and since not only Carter but also Linas Kleiza struggled, the Nuggets would have to pull another rabbit from another hat to win this game.
There were actually two rabbits and two hats. First there was the J.R. Smith career high 8 made threes, all the more amazing considering in many games this year he hasn’t even been given enough playing time to have the theoretical possibility of hitting half a dozen threes, let alone 8. The other rabbit was Kenyon Martin’s outstanding game offensively, 12/16 from the field for 24 points in 42 minutes. Camby’s 7 blocks and 16 rebounds is not really a rabbit out of the hat, because for Camby that’s not about magic, it’s about talent and relentless perseverance.
Well, if you can’t come up with tactics and strategies that allow you to beat a team like Miami 9 out of 10 times, by all means use magic. Don’t let a grouchy Nuggets reporter stand in the way. I promise I won’t be a grouch about Karl if magic allows the Nuggets to (a) make the playoffs and (b) win at least one playoff series. Just don’t come to me asking for magic to be used, because I don’t know anything about how you make a rabbit come out of a hat.
Dwyane Wade, Mark Blount, and Dorrell Wright led the Heat to a 32-23 lead after one quarter. J.R. Smith does not play much in the 1st quarter these days, so the 1st quarter was kind of a dead giveaway that the Nuggets were doomed had Smith not played at all.
J.R. Smith made 3 threes, a driving dunk, and 2 free throws in the 2nd quarter alone. But for the Nuggets, Allen Iverson and especially Anthony Carter were no where to be found. For the Heat Shawn Marion started dunking, Dwyane Wade started hitting a bunch of jump shots, and Dorrell Wright continued to pour it on, so the Heat were still leading at the half, 63-57.
In the third quarter, the Heat became disorganized and lost that quarter to the Nuggets 27-15, so the Nuggets had a 6-point lead going into the final quarter. Kenyon Martin scored 12 points, as he dominated the Nuggets offense in the 3rd.
The 4th started with a Wade three, a couple of Ricky Davis free throws, and another jumper by Dorrell Wright. Meanwhile, for the Nuggets, Martin and Smith missed shots and Smith and Kleiza were whistled for fouls. It was 85-84 Heat with 10 and a half minutes left.
However, Smith then swished a three to put the Nuggets ahead again, but then Wade and Davis made threes on successive possessions to put the Heat ahead by 4. But seeing opponents make threes gets J.R. Smith even more in the zone than he already is, and so he is the one who made the next two threes, giving the Nuggets a 93-91 lead with about 8 minutes to play. Smith scored his 8th and final three of the game with 7 minutes left, and the Nuggets led 96-93. It was truly a rare sighting of the all Smith all the time offense, the offense that Karl has nightmares about, because Smith’s turnovers and impulsiveness scare the poor guy half to death.
Camby and Najera makes were matched by Marion and Wade makes, so when Denver took time out with 2:36 left, it was 100-98 Nuggets. So the Nuggets were going to have to try to win yet another game on a wing and a prayer. Or maybe they won it with magic, or maybe it was pure luck. Somehow they won this game, but it certainly was not in a way that gets the NBA seal of approval, that’s for sure.
Iverson went to work and made his favorite shot, the mid-range fade away, but Wade answered with a little jumper, so it was 102-100 Nuggets with 1:35 left. Although Martin was mostly money in this game, he missed an 8-footer with 1:10 to go, but then fortunately, Wade, who finished 3/7 on 3’s, missed one of those. However, the Nuggets could not come up with the ball when a rebound was most critical, and the Heat had three second chance shots, and Mark Blount jumped it in to tie the game with 17 seconds left.
But then with a second left, Dorrell Wright made the clutch and clean block on Iverson’s fade away for the win, and the lowly Heat and the lucky Nuggets were heading into overtime.
In the first half of the 5-minute overtime, Marion, Blount, and Wade matched Camby, Anthony, and Martin, so it was 110 each with 2:33 left. Then Carmelo Anthony, who was 0/3 on threes, but knows he has to get that dimension of his game into gear, missed a three, but then Marcus Camby was there to block a little jumper by Shawn Marion. Then Carter missed a three, but a Camby offensive rebound allowed Iverson to shoot a mid-range, but it clanged out too. But then through sheer luck as much as anything Carter made another offensive rebound for the Nuggets, and he was fouled by Marion, whereupon he made both free throws, and it was now 112-110 Nuggets with 1:25 left.
After the Heat time-out, Ricky Davis missed a three. The Heat in that situation should have been driving to the hoop, or attempting a short jumper, not trying to make an ultra high pressure three. Anthony got the rebound. When he got the ball again, he was fouled by Wright, and he made both free throws, so it was 114-110 Nuggets with 54 seconds left.
Now the Heat were forced to shoot threes, but Wade missed one. But the ball came back out to Wade, who fed Davis, who this time did swish the long range shot. It was 114-113 Nuggets with 33 seconds left.
Then the Nuggets offense disappeared at the worst possible time. With 8 seconds left and the shot clock all burned up, Melo missed a long two, and Wright got the rebound for Miami. Wade then missed the long two jumper for the win with 2 seconds left. The Heat were unable to pull a rabbit out of a hat for the win, even though they recently pulled a whopper of a rabbit out of a whopper of a hat, when Shawn Marion suddenly appeared in a Heat uniform. If the Nuggets are so great with small rabbits and small hats, let’s see if they can make a great player appear in a Nuggets uniform no later than the start of the 2008-09 season this October.
George Karl doesn’t know it, or else he knows it but also knows that most fans are ignorant of this so he doesn’t care, but J.R. Smith, as this season progresses, is making him appear to be more and more incompetent. Consider the last 10 games, from most recent to least recent, and the J.R. Smith real player ratings and rankings among Nuggets for those games:
J.R. SMITH RECENT REAL PLAYER RATINGS AND RANKINGS
Nuggets 114 Heat 113, 1.478, 1st among Nuggets
Nuggets 113 Cavaliers 83, 1.385, 1st among Nuggets
Nuggets 111 Wizards 100, 1.060, 2nd among Nuggets
Jazz 118 Nuggets 115 OT, Smith was benched
Nuggets 105 Trailblazers 103, 1.271, 1st among Nuggets
Nuggets 117 Bobcats 101, 0.618, 6th among Nuggets
Nuggets 106 Grizzlies 102, 0.160, 8th among Nuggets
Hornets 117 Nuggets 93, 0.947, 2nd among Nuggets
Mavericks 90 Nuggets 85, 0.733, 4th among Nuggets
Nuggets 100 Nets 85, 0.191, 7th among Nuggets
In the last 10 games, Smith has played in 9 games. Among those 9, he has been among the best five Nuggets on the court 6 times; the other times he was 6th, 7th, and 8th one time each. I don’t know of any other NBA player who would be ranked like this but who would not be a starter or, at the very least, a critical 6th man who would be playing at least 25 minutes a game. But under Karl, Smith is playing 17.5 minutes a game, just slightly more than one quarter of each game.
Will Smith’s 4 huge recent games insure, at least, that he will not be completely benched again, at least until he has at least one terrible game? Of course not. What Smith does is largely meaningless in George Karl’s war against the 4th year shooting guard out of a New Jersey high school. Karl detests Smith and wants him off the team, and all of his maneuverings will be directed toward that ultimate objective.
In fact, the better Smith plays, the more likely he will be benched for a game or two, despite the shortage of Nuggets guards due to the long term unavailability of Chucky Atkins. If and when Smith gets really hot, like he is right now, in order to avoid a full scale revolt against his anti-Smith policies, Karl has to “ice” Smith by sitting him for at least a few days.
Don’t get me wrong, Karl is not actually mad, he is just extremely wrong headed on the Smith issue. He wants to Smith to play moderately well until he is rid of him, but if he consistently starts to play extremely well, Karl is going to get very nervous and very worried that demands will grow that (a) Smith never be completely benched, that (b) Smith start, at least as an experiment, that (c) Smith play at least 24 minutes a game, and that (d) Smith play in the playoffs at least 24 minutes a game. Regardless of how well Smith plays, Karl will not commit to any of those 4 items unless Smith magically transforms into a different personality, one which greatly appreciates the marvelous history and traditions of basketball, and one which is a workaholic regarding practices.
The bottom line, the real, dirty truth, is that Karl would not necessarily play Smith even if he knew for a fact that the Nuggets were going to lose a playoff series if they didn’t roll the dice with Smith for a minimum 24 minutes a game. Because not only does Karl not believe in J.R. Smith, he doesn’t believe in rolling the dice either. Rolling the dice would be cheating the glorious history and traditions of basketball.
If you roll the dice with J.R. Smith, you can win, it’s that simple. Here are all the instances where a Nugget has played at, according the Real Player ratings going back to the start of the season, at the Superstar-Plus level or better. We are looking at the top 3 levels on the scale, where a player has been so great that he by himself has, at the very least, brought the Nuggets close to winning the game. We are going to ignore Spectacular performances and less. Here is the scale:
SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.79 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Spectacular Performance-Star Plus
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster
Feb. 12 J.R. Smith: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Feb. 12 Nuggets 114 Heat 113
Feb. 8 Carmelo Anthony: Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high (Highest Level Possible)
Feb. 8 Nuggets 111 Wizards 100
Jan. 17 Linas Kleiza: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Jan.17 NUGGETS 120 Jazz 109
Jan. 14 Marcus Camby: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Jan 14 Bobcats 119 Nuggets 116
Jan. 11 Linas Kleiza: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Jan 11 Nuggets 113 Magic 103
Jan. 7 J.R. Smith: Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
(Highest Level Possible)
Jan 7 Suns 137 Nuggets 115
Dec. 26 J.R. Smith: Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
Dec 26 Nuggets 125 Bucks 115
Dec. 26 Carmelo Anthony: Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
Dec 26 Nuggets 125 Bucks 115
Dec. 26 Anthony Carter: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Dec 26 Nuggets 125 Bucks 115
Dec. 26: Marcus Camby: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Dec 26 Nuggets 125 Bucks 115
Dec. 6 Allen Iverson: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Dec 6 Nuggets 122 Mavericks 109
Dec. 5 Allen Iverson: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Dec 5 Lakers 111 Nuggets 107
Dec. 2 Carmelo Anthony: Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
Dec 2 Nuggets 115 Heat 89
Dec. 2 Kenyon Martin: Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
Dec 2 Nuggets 115 Heat 89
Nov. 30 J.R. Smith: Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
Nov 30 Nuggets 123 Clippers 107
Nov. 20 Marcus Camby: Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
Nov 20 Nuggets 112 Bulls 91
Nov. 12 J.R. Smith: Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
(Highest Level Possible)
Nov 12 Nuggets 122 Cavaliers 100
Nov. 12 Allen Iverson: Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
Nov 12 Nuggets 122 Cavaliers 100
Nov. 10 Yakhouba Diawara: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Nov 10 Nuggets 113 Pacers 106
Nov. 9 Carmelo Anthony: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Nov 9 Nuggets 118 Wizards 92
Oct. 31 Allen Iverson: Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
Oct 31 Nuggets 120 Sonics 103
There have been 21 instances of Nuggets being in one of the top 3 ratings. The number of astounding and awesome performances per player is as follows:
J.R. Smith 5
Carmelo Anthony 4
Allen Iverson 4
Marcus Camby 3
Linas Kleiza 2
Kenyon Martin 1
Anthony Carter 1
Yakhouba Diawara 1
Of the 16 games in which at least one Nugget has been Superstar Plus or better, the Nuggets are 13-3. The only losses were to the Bobcats in Charlotte on Jan. 14 in an extremely close game, to the Suns in a rout on Jan. 7, where J.R. Smith played just 5 minutes, which is the minimum number of minutes needed to be rated, and to the Lakers in a very close game on December 5. That was the game in Denver in which Iverson scored 51 points, but George Karl forgot to put Linas Kleiza in the game and kept Kenyon Martin, Anthony Carter and J.R. Smith in the game too long. Yes, you read that correctly. In that game, J.R. Smith should have played fewer than the 21 minutes he played.
The point is, whenever any player is a superstar or better, the Nuggets are going to win the vast majority of the time. The second point is that J.R. Smith is at least as likely to be a superstar or better in any given game as any other Nugget. So the clear conclusion is that if you are the underdog in a game or in a playoff series, the last thing you should do is bench J.R. Smith.
But as we know, that is exactly what George Karl did for the April 2007 Spurs series. And he has continued to bench Smith from time to time this season, for no reasonable known reasons, and he certainly reserves the right to and may very well bench Smith again for the 2008 playoffs, assuming the Nuggets beat out the Warriors for the last playoff berth in the West.
PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Chucky Atkins: He was diagnosed with a right groin/abdominal strain (Sports Hernia) on 1/9 and underwent successful surgery on 1/11. He is expected to be sidelined a minimum of eight weeks. Atkins is out until at least late March. With any luck, he will be back in the Nuggets lineup by early April.
Nene: underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on 1/14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He is out until at least the first of March, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season.
Steven Hunter: He missed this game, because of soreness and inflammation in his right knee.
HEAT PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE
Joel Anthony: He is suffering from a right quad injury, and also has flu. He is day to day.
Alexander Johnson: He has missed their last three games with a sprained ankle. He is questionable for Feb. 14 at Chicago.
Udonis Haslem: Heat coaches stated Feb. 8 that he will miss another couple weeks with his sprained ankle.
Smush Parker: Suspended and out indefinitely. He had an off-court incident on January 16. He has been invited to rejoin the Heat, after he had previously been accused of knocking over a valet stand and grabbing the attendants arm after being denied his car keys.
Alonzo Mourning: He had surgery on Dec. 21 to repair a torn patellar tendon in his right knee and a quadriceps tear in the same leg. He will be sidelined for the remainder of the season and possibly will never again play in the NBA.
ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS
As of February 13, 2008
The Nuggets are under a YELLOW ALERT, on account of the following problems.
INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS
1. Chucky Atkins injury 18 points
2. Nene illness 14 points
3. Steven Hunter injury 4 points
SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED PLAYER PERFORMANCE PROBLEMS
There are none at this time: 0 points.
BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING
1. George Karl has completely benched one or more players who should not be benched due to his incorrect calculation of the benefits and costs of that player, his hatred of the player, and/or his having the ulterior motive of forcing the player off the team. The problem points would be the points you would have if the player were injured.
No one is currently completely benched who should not be: 0 points.
2. One or more players are partially benched; their minutes are being artificially limited due to abstract and subjective factors that the Denver Coaches believe are more important than performance on the court.
J.R. Smith was partially benched: 2 points.
3. George Karl over relies on his starters and won’t play the non-starters enough: 0-12 Points. The severity varies depending on the circumstances, mainly Karl’s beliefs and moods, and whether the other team is playing well enough to take advantage of the Nuggets playing with not enough breathers, with too many fouls, and so forth. The current points reported are for the use, or should I say the misuse, of the reserves for the most recent games, with the most weight being given to the game being reported on here.
The bad use of reserves score for this game is 0 points.
4. The Nuggets have extreme inconsistency and a truly excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a partial system on offense. The damage caused by this would be up to 20 points, except that Iverson reduces the damage. In broad terms, the team has failed to decide whether it wants Melo alone, Iverson alone, Melo and Iverson together, or neither of them to be firstly responsible for scoring enough points to keep the Nuggets in games. If it were neither, I call the name of that strategy the "share the wealth" strategy. More specifically, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays.
Lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and schemes: 7 Points
INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART
1. The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 0 Points. It’s not anywhere near as bad as some fans sometime think it is.
TOTAL PROBLEM POINTS: 45, which constitutes YELLOW ALERT.
YELLOW ALERT (40-54): Minor damage is occurring to the season. The entire season is under medium threat. Beating quality teams is much more difficult and will be pretty rare. About 1/2 of all wins against good teams will now be losses. Beating mid-level teams is a little more difficult. About 1/4 of games that would be wins against mid-level teams will now be losses. Beating low level teams is still relatively easy, but no longer almost a sure bet. A good team has become in between a good team and a mid-level team when it is under this alert.
The damage description assumes that Nuggets opponents are in a GREY ALERT or better status. When the Nuggets play teams that are in yellow alert or worse, the damage they suffer from being in a significant alert status will be substantially reduced. In other words, opponents who are themselves in significant alert situations will obviously be more beatable, even when the Nuggets are in a significant alert situation.
OBSERVATIONS ON THE ALERT STATUS
The Heat were probably in at least ORANGE ALERT due to having 5 players not available, so the Nuggets had the lesser alert for a change, which made their task a lot easier in this game.
Both Atkins and Nene are definitely going to be out for many weeks more and either one of them or both of them could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. And George Karl is definitely not going to pull a few offensive set plays out of a hat any time soon. Therefore, the Nuggets, unless they make a trade and/or acquire a diamond in the rough player, are doomed to be in ORANGE ALERT or YELLOW ALERT for the rest of the season, which endangers their chances of making the playoffs. Hollinger at ESPN has the odds that the Nuggets will make the playoffs at about 65% right now though, which is a big improvement from just a week ago, when the odds were about 50%. But the 65% chance is dumb with respect to the indefinite unavailability of Nene and Atkins.
The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do about it.
RESERVE WATCH
Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Heat 8
Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Heat 7
Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 36
Heat Non-Starters Points: 19
Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 6
Heat Non-Starters Rebounds: 5
Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 5
Heat Non-Starters Assists: 8
OBSERVATIONS ON HOW THE RESERVES WERE USED AND PLAYED
The Heat have even more injuries and sicknesses to deal with these days than do the Nuggets, so Pat Riley fielded only 7 players for 10 or more. Most of the time, a Coach who can come up with only 7 players to play 10 minutes or more is destined to lose the game. I learned this lesson from watching George Karl, who has been known to do it, although he hasn’t gone to that extreme more than once or twice so far this season.
As usual, Nuggets non-starters made few assists. On the other hand, Nuggets non-starters scored a lot of points, but since J.R. Smith really should be a starter, the measure is distorted, quite honestly.
The reserve watch feature is under development, and it will be gradually expanded. The complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible.
GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10)
3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines
PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. Many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player:
Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made
All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season.
NUGGETS-HEAT PLAYER RATINGS
Kenyon Martin: Game 44.0 Season 22.2
Marcus Camby: Game 42.2 Season 33.0
J.R. Smith: Game 39.9 Season 14.5
Carmelo Anthony: Game 37.9 Season 39.4
Allen Iverson: Game 24.9 Season 40.8
Linas Kleiza: Game 9.8 Season 19.5
Eduardo Najera: Game 9.0 Season 13.1
Anthony Carter: Game 7.4 Season 20.9
Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Injury
Nene: Did Not Play-Illness
Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Injury
Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
Von Wafer: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision
HEAT PLAYER RATINGS
Shawn Marion: Game 45.8 Season 34.7
Dwayne Wade: Game 45.5 Season 38.6
Dorrell Wright: Game 38.2 Season 18.0
Mark Blount: Game 33.7 Season 13.1
Ricky Davis: Game 18.3 Season 21.3
Jason Williams: Game 14.6 Season 17.9
Earl Barron: Game 10.5 Season 8.0
Marcus Banks: Game 8.8 Season 8.3
NOTE: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes.
OBSERVATIONS ON THE RATINGS:
Four Nuggets were the major players: Martin, Camby, Smith, and Anthony. Obviously, J.R. Smith had a huge game, thus setting up further embarrassment for George Karl for when Karl benches Smith again, as he inevitably will.
Iverson had a game which is poor for him, but nonetheless put him in the middle of the pack of Nuggets. Kleiza, Najera, and Carter were more than bad enough to have cost the Nuggets this game were it not for J.R. Smith and were it not for the level of competition which, despite Shawn Marion, was still not quite up to NBA par.
Every single Heat player was close to his seasonal normal or better. Dorrell Wright and Mark Blount were far and away better than they have normally been this season. But despite the fact that the Heat had no laggards, they were defeated by the sheer talent level of the Nuggets, which received a perfectly timed major boost from J.R. Smith.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED
The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real Per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short.
This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows.
In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else.
SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high
1.60 1.79 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan
1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game
1.20 1.40 Spectacular Performance-Star Plus
1.05 1.20 Star Performance
0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game
0.80 0.90 Very Good Game
0.70 0.80 Good Game
0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game
0.50 0.60 Poor Game
0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game
0.25 0.40 Bad Game-Near Disaster
Less 0.25 Total Disaster
NUGGETS-HEAT REAL PLAYER RATINGS
All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted.
1. J.R. Smith, Den 1.478
2. Earl Barron, Mia 1.313…Barron played only 8 minutes
3. Kenyon Martin, Den 1.048
4. Dwyane Wade, Mia 1.034
5. Marcus Camby, Den 1.005
6. Shawn Marion, Mia 0.954
7. Carmelo Anthony, Den 0.924
8. Dorrell Wright, Mia 0.830
9. Mark Blount, Mia 0.749
10. Jason Williams, Mia 0.608
11. Ricky Davis, Mia 0.572
12. Marcus Banks, Mia 0.550
13. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.544
14. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.529
15. Allen Iverson, Den 0.498
16. Anthony Carter, Den 0.264
OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS
J.R. Smith was a superstar and Kenyon Martin was just about a star. Earl Barron was a star plus for Miami, but he played for only 8 minutes.
Carmelo Anthony, Shawn Marion, Marcus Camby, and Dwyane Wade were all outstanding, which is all normal for them and not really news. Marion is still brand new on the Heat, so it will most likely be a few weeks before he has a superstar or better game.
The Nuggets had 4 of the 7 players who were outstanding or better, but they also had all 4 of the worst 4 players on the court. Were games decided by the performances of all players on the court, the Nuggets would have lost. But very many games are decided mostly by the players who are very good or better. In effect, the better a player is, the more votes he has with which to sway the outcome of the game. J.R. Smith earned just enough “votes,” in 27 minutes of playing time, with which to rescue the Nuggets and transform a loss to a win. And now the Heat may have their eye on J.R. Smith as the perfect backup at the 2-spot for Dwyane Wade.
NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS
This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown.
J.R. Smith: +9
Allen Iverson: +4
Anthony Carter: +4
Marcus Camby: +0
Linas Kleiza: -1
Eduardo Najera: -1
Carmelo Anthony: -3
Kenyon Martin: -7
OBSERVATIONS ON PLUS—MINUS
J.R. Smith was by a 5-point margin the best Nugget in terms of how the score changed when different players were on the court. Kenyon Martin was at the opposite extreme.
NUGGETS MADE WHAT?
All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating.
Turnovers: Team 2, Carter 3, Anthony 3, Iverson 2, Camby 2, Smith 2, Kleiza 1, Martin 0, Najera 0
Personal Fouls: Smith 4, Martin 2, Camby 2, Carter 2, Anthony 2, Kleiza 1, Najera 1, Iverson 0
Anthony Carter played 28 minutes and was 1/4, 0/2 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 4 points, and he made 4 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal.
Allen Iverson played for virtually the whole game, 50 minutes, and was 5/20, 0/1 on 3’s, and 6/6 from the line for 16 points, and he made 7 assists and 6 rebounds.
Eduardo Najera played 17 minutes and was 1/2 for 2 points, and he made 2 assists, 2 steals, and 2 rebounds.
Linas Kleiza played 18 minutes and was 2/3, 0/1 on 3’s, and 2/4 from the line for 6 points, and he made 3 rebounds and 1 block.
Carmelo Anthony played 41 minutes and was 9/23, 0/3 on 3’s, and 4/5 from the line for 22 points, and he made 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block.
Marcus Camby played 42 minutes and was 6/11 for 12 points, and he made 16 rebounds, 7 blocks, 2 assists, and 1 steal.
Kenyon Martin played 42 minutes and was 12/16 and 0/1 on 3’s for 24 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal.
J.R. Smith played 27 minutes and was 9/16, 8/14 on 3’s, and 2/3 from the line for 28 points, and he made 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 rebound.
NEXT UP
The next game will be Wednesday, February 13 in Orlando to play the Magic at 5 pm mountain time. The Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights, but the Magic will not be. Therefore, the Magic will enjoy both the home court and the extra rest advantages.
