Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From May, 2008, Part 1

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

By the numbers, we can see how low the Denver franchise has sunk by trying to trade C Anthony as a result of their inability to stop worshipping Mr. Karl, and as a result of Mr. Karl's inability to stop worshipping Allen Iverson. I am one of Iverson's biggest backers, but no player should ever be worshipped. And obviously no coach should ever be worshipped by a front office / ownership.

Denver is disfunctional and hurting, so it would not be shocking if they make this trade. Here is a franchise that traded for Allen Iverson and then did absolutely nothing to prevent the same exact situation that existed in Philadelphia for years and years to continue on in a new city. That is beyond dumb. Them trading Melo would be at their level of dumbness so to speak, so it could in fact happen.

NEW JERSEY NETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Vince Carter, NJ SG 0.923
2 Devin Harris, NJ PG 0.848
3 Richard Jefferson, NJ SF 0.823
4 Sean Williams, NJ C 0.726
5 Stromile Swift, NJ C 0.707
6 Josh Boone, NJ PF 0.704
7 Bostjan Nachbar, NJ SF 0.685
8 Marcus Williams, NJ PG 0.679
9 Nenad Krstic, NJ PF 0.644
10 DeSagana Diop, NJ C 0.564
11 Darrell Armstrong, NJ PG 0.518
12 Maurice Ager, NJ SG 0.500
13 Trenton Hassell, NJ SF 0.325

DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
2 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
3 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
4 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
5 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
6 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
7 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
8 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
9 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
10 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.636
11 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
12 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.587
13 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
14 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495

Forumula for Real Player Rating:
Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made

Anyone want to rank the 13 Nets players in made them miss defending? Rank them according to how good they are in preventing shooters from scoring if you know how they rank. Then I could show Nets and Nuggets ARPR.

DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REAL PLAYER RATINGS ADJUSTED FOR DEFENDING
(raw espn rating +/- made them miss defending)/minutes
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.011
2 Marcus Camby, Den C 1.004
3 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.907
4 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.898
5 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.888
6 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.833
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.752
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.686
9 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.674
10 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.657
11 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.597
12 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.545
13 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.526
14 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.445
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Q: Why would Denver even consider as they threaten to bust up their team hogging two of the very best shooting guards in the League, Iverson and JR Smith, but then settle for Marcus Williams at PG?
A: Because they are dumb and they are not really serious about winning in the playoffs. Not being a 24-58 team anymore is enough to keep them happy. Maybe they're just a bunch of dumb mountain hicks who don't know that if you have a poor passing but good scoring team you need an outstanding PG to win playoff games.
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The other reason to take rumors of C Anthony being traded seriously is that he might finally have figured out how screwed up the Nuggets are and how it isn't going to change until there are changes in team management. But the Nuggets are too dumb or cowardly right now to make the needed changes. Remember that he called the Nuggets a quitting team during and after game 3 of the playoffs blowout by the Lakers.

So Anthony may have more or less demanded a trade, but decided to do it out of the public eye.
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Your Denver backcourt lineup is not going to happen anytime soon. AI will never be the designated PG in Denver while Karl is there worshipping him in his historical 2-guard role. And even if Karl were to be fired, which is just a pipe dream, the next coach might refuse to do it as well, regardless of how much that kills the playoff prospects of the team.
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Karl will never designate AI as his starting PG and he will never or at least almost never start JR at 2-guard.

The Nuggets are disfunctional and therefore unpredictable right now, so all true Nuggets fans are uptight right now about what might go down. Here is a small sample of some of the things Nuggets fans have to worry about right now:

1. The Nuggets trade C Anthony and don't get what Melo is worth in return.
2. The Nuggets despite trading C Anthony still end up with no proven, outstanding PG which they desperately need.
3. The Nuggets continue to waste JR Smith to a substantial degree, with Iverson as 2-guard starter and Smith's minutes limited due to that and due to Karl still disliking him very much.
4. In general, the Nuggets are going to return to being a door mat 24-58 type of team before Karl is finally retired or shown the door.
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JR wants to stay despite Karl treating him rough, but Anthony is his best friend on the team, and if Anthony goes, JR would most likely then want out. If Melo were traded to New Jersey, JR would want to go there too, especially since JR is from New Jersey and, so far as I know, all of his kin and most of his other friends are still there.

JR being very young has not gotten very upset about just being a 6th man, which I guess is to his credit, and I think he would probably put up with it for another season, but again, only if Melo stays.

As for me, the more I think about this, the more I like the idea of C Anthony playing for New Jersey and getting off of the Nuggets who have reached a dead end in the way they manage their team. The ultimate for me would be if Anthony and Smith came to New Jersey in the same trade, even if Smith was still only a backup (to VC). That would definitely spell the end of me being a Nuggets guy and the start of me being a Nets guy. I know a sinking ship when I see one, so I'd have to get on a life boat to escape the Nuggets at that point.
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Here is a summary of why C Anthony could be traded this off-season and probably will be traded either this off-season or in the 2009 off-season.

1. C Anthony may have finally figured out how screwed up the Nuggets are and how it isn't going to change until there are changes in team management. But the Nuggets are too dumb or cowardly right now to make the needed changes. Remember that he called the Nuggets a quitting team during and after game 3 of the playoffs blowout by the Lakers.

So Anthony may have more or less demanded a trade, but decided to do it out of the public eye.

2. The Nuggets were dumb enough to trade for Allen Iverson but not make any changes at all in his Philadelphia role, producing the same futile result. So they are dumb enough to make a dumb Anthony trade.

3. The Nuggets need salary relief.

4. The Nuggets need a scapegoat if they are too dumb and/or too cowardly to get rid of some coaches.

5. George Karl, who is not known for sticking with strategies, may have grown weary of his offensive strategy (if you can call it that.) He may have demanded that the Nuggets get better defenders on the team, so that he can rely less on his no structure, fast pace offense for easy wins against poor teams next year. Karl/The FO may be trying for the overly simplistic fix of getting better defenders in their quest to win playoff games. I'm not against better defenders but in and of itself it's not going to solve the Nuggets problems, especially if a dumb Melo trade is involved in bringing it about.

In other words, Karl and/or other team managers may have decided that the team needs to move heavily in the direction of more defending and less offense, which would make Melo expendable to some extent.

6. Any team dumb enough to even discuss a Melo trade that does not involve either of the two Nuggets 2-guards, both of whom are among the best 2-guards in the League, Iverson and Smith, in exchange for an outstanding point guard, is dumb enough to make a dumb Melo trade.

7. Karl has named AI as captain and Carmelo Anthony is not even co-captain. Also, Melo's game has been micromanaged by Karl/other coaches to some extent while Iverson has been given total free reign to play any way he wants. Both of these indicate that if the Nuggets make a major trade, it is more likely that Melo goes rather than AI.
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I am a fair weather and a foul weather sailor; if anything, I'm a better writer in foul weather. But I am not somebody who is going to be on a ship that is sinking and is going to end up at the bottom.

What has been most disappointing about C Anthony to me? The fact that he has done almost nothing to prevent the Nuggets from arriving at a dead end. He did adjust his game as requested, but he didn't realize that the forest is more important than the trees. But he's not the owner or the assistant general manager or even an assistant coach. Hell, he's not even considered a team captain anymore. For me, it would be sufficient if he has more or less demanded to be traded. I could then forgive him for not knowing how to lead his team away from the dead end, or off the island so to speak.

If that sounds kind of cheap, that's because it is kind of cheap. But he is not a college graduate for god's sake and how much can you learn in high school about managing a complex organization? I'm willing to let him off kind of cheap as long as he is finally taking some decisive action, even if it isn't the one Denver fans would want, because I think Melo drew the short straw so to speak as far as coaching and franchise management is concerned, and he deserves another fresh draw.

New Jersey took advantage of the Mavericks' desperation and got rid of the aging Kidd and that to me signals a team that is managed entirely in the real world instead of partly in a fantasy world the way the Nuggets are managed.
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They lied to the agent and the agent should know better. Any team would want to keep preliminary trade talks secret from the player's agent both because they are preliminary and unlikely to lead to a trade, and because if another team offers a good deal, they want to hold off the player and his agent from interfering for as long as possible in the process, because the team hopes that by the time the player and/or his agent gets involved, the trade has become almost a done deal.

If you were about to be fired, and you called the personnel department and asked about it, do you think you would get a straight answer? No sir.

There were and will continue to be trade feelers put out by the Nuggets. The Nuggets' front office staff have backed themselves into a corner because of their Karl addiction, whether it is voluntary or involuntary. And at this point how else are they supposed to spend their off-season time other than putting out trade feelers, including for Carmelo Anthony?
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That's not to say that the Nuggets should not have C. Anthony in the loop regarding free agent signings and trade talks not involving him. They should keep him in the loop, but they probably will not, because it seems to me that Mr. Karl realized that if he made Iverson the sole captain of the team (without informing the relatively politically gullible Melo about his demotion to ordinary player) and allowed Iverson to play any way he wanted, while hounding Anthony and tormenting JR Smith, that this would eliminate any chance Karl would be forced to resign or retire due to a lack of playoff wins. Because as a result of the total freedom and near worship granted to him by Karl, Iverson has naturally become Mr. Karl's number one backer. And when you as the Coach have Allen Iverson as your number one backer and Allen Iverson in turn has become, for better or worse, in use and in misuse, one of the cornerstones of the franchise, you have achieved total job security whether or not you can win playoff games and whether or not you know what you are doing.

Another way of looking at this is that Mr. Karl has taken as much advantage as possible of the relative gullability of both Anthony and Iverson. He seems to have known in advance that Iverson would respond with blind loyalty if he was left to do what he wants, and that Melo would be extremely slow to understand that his team captain days are over, and to understand that his Coach does not believe that he should be a team captain, nor that he is at Iverson's level, due to Iverson's much longer resume.

It was a shrewd calculation on Mr. Karl's part, who seems to know a lot more about micro politics than he does about micro basketball. We already knew that Karl fancies himself as kind of an expert about psychology in general and personalities in particular, so is it any surprise that he would know about micro or office politics? And what about the basic fact that Karl is one of the "super coaches" with a marathon head coaching resume? He had to know something about micro power politics to achieve that.

So if Melo is kept out of the loop, I for one know who to blame.