George Karl Mostly to Blame for Nuggets' Game One Loss to Lakers: Too Many Defensive Guards, Not Enough Trust in J.R. Smith
The Nuggets, as everyone knew they would, brought a blend of tough and rough defense and a fast and furious offense too to Game One of the West Final Series against the Lakers. Also appearing was the classic Carmelo Anthony, a power scoring and even power defending Carmelo Anthony.
But unfortunately, the more things change, the more they stay the same. While in the previous two seasons numerous huge Allen Iverson efforts ended up in a Nuggets loss, in this game it was a huge effort by Carmelo Anthony that ended up resulting in a loss rather than a win. The Nuggets lost 105-103 to the Lakers in game one in Los Angeles.
I will tell you the number one reason why the Nuggets lost this game to the Lakers, even though the Nuggets' defense held the Lakers offense to a miserable shooting percentage of 41.1%, while the Nuggets shot a very, very good 48.6%. The Nuggets should have won this game.
The number one reason the Nuggets lost it is among the sixteen reasons I thought back in January that would lead to the Nuggets not even winning a single playoff series: J.R. Smith has not been developed properly as a pro basketball player.
Not only does this relatively recent full report explain in detail why Karl failed with respect to J.R. Smith, but numerous references are made to this big problem in reports from 2007-08.
By the way, I thought that enough of the 16 factors would be in play and would cause Denver to fail to win a single playoff series, but what actually happened is that a smaller number of the 16 factors emerged than I expected. So the Nuggets were able to get by the walking wounded Hornets and the defensively challenged Mavericks. But the Lakers are another matter entirely.
But now back to the Smith situation:
Smith was trashed repeatedly in 2006-07 and in 2007-08 by Karl, in public no less, due to factors beyond Smith's control, namely, due to Smith's immaturity and impulsiveness.
Karl simply failed to see the potential in the very young player, and obviously wanted Smith to be traded. But Nuggets management did see the big upside potential, and they signed Smith to a mid-level contract in the summer of 2008.
But Karl has doggedly and seemingly vindictively persisted in refusing to make Smith a starter, even though Smith by early this season was no longer a defensive liability in any way, shape or form. If anything by early in 2008-09, Smith had become a defensive asset.
Well, if Karl does not like a guard in the mold of J.R. Smith, what kind of guard does Karl like? To get at this, let's see how the playing times for the guards other than starting point guard Chauncey Billups went in this game. This games' playing times, as you might expect, were reflective of what was typical throughout the season.
J.R. Smith (2-Guard) 25 minutes
Dahntay Jones (2-Guard) 16 minutes
Anthony Carter (Point Guard) 15 minutes
Linas Kleiza (Guard-Forward) 7 minutes
I hate to inform anyone who does not know, but of the above four players, there is only one who the Lakers would even consider having on their team and that one would be J.R. Smith. The other three they most likely would not want on their team at all, let alone starting. The reason is simple. For different reasons, the other three players are not full scale players offensively.
EARTH TO KARL:
It's time for some Earth to Karl transmissions:
Earth to Karl #1 Dahntay Jones will hardly be able to score much at all in this series against the Great Wall of Los Angeles: Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Ariza. And Kobe Bryant will not be slowed down by Jones anywhere near as much as was the young and slightly banged up Chris Paul. It just isn't going to happen on our planet.
You need someone else to guard Kobe Bryant, someone like J.R. Smith, for example, who can even when he is burned offset many of Bryant's scores with scores of his own. Or just keep Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin on Kobe all night. Or try Renaldo Balkman; he's got 2 inches on Jones and he is more defensively skilled than Jones is when all is said and done.
Mr. Karl, you are going to get killed by Kobe and Company if you keep thinking that you can get away with having Dahntay Jones guard Kobe Bryant.
For more about George Karl's guard rotation errors this year, see this report.
Earth to Karl #2: Anthony Carter is too short against the Lakers, and you don't have an organized offense anyways, so why do you need him in there for more than 10 minutes a game to rest Chauncey Billups? You don't. Stop overplaying Anthony Carter.
But laugh out loud, I have been saying this for going on two years now, and Karl always insists on not only overplaying Carter, but on overplaying short, defensively oriented guards in general. There is only one thing worse than overplaying Dahntay Jones, and that is overplaying both Dahntay Jones and Anthony Carter in the same game.
Even worse still is having Carter and Billups, the backup and the starting point guards, in the game at the same time. In game one, this happened for almost half of the second quarter and for very close to 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. Wrong move, especially since it was Carter's lame inbound pass intended for, you guessed it, Chauncey Billups, that was picked off by Trevor Ariza, allowing the Lakers to take away Denver's last chance to win this game.
I mean, I couldn't dream this stuff up if I tried.
Earth to Karl #3: Kleiza was sort of an offensive asset last year, but this year, he fell off badly and should not be playing in this series. Period. At the very least, Balkman should be getting the minutes Kleiza is getting.
Earth to Karl #4: For the love of the man in the sky George Karl, if you could not bear to start J.R. Smith in this series (and long before it) why didn't you start Guard-Forward Renaldo Balkman? He is actually a better defender than is Dahntay Jones, and while not being a full scale pro offensive player, at least he is better than Jones offensively as well. He's very much like a younger and slightly less talented version of Chris Andersen.
KARL HAS UNDERESTIMATED BOTH SMITH AND THE GAME OF BASKETBALL
Sorry Mr. Karl, your inability to fully appreciate J.R. Smith and the offensive vision and weapons he brings on the court was what did you in in game 1. You have failed in your task to make Smith all that he can be; he needs to start to be all that he can be. Mr. Karl, you were destined to lose this game due to your conclusions and actions going back many, many months ago. And this Smith thing may very well do you in for the series.
Yes, this is a little thing compared to your offensive coaching shortcomings in general. But in a tight game in the Western Conference Finals, all it takes is a relatively little thing to lose a game you should have won.
To summarize mathematically, for the Nuggets to win, Smith needs to be playing 30-35 minutes a game, Balkman 10-15 minutes a game, Carter should be backing Billups, and Jones should be backing J.R. Smith. Carter and Billups should never ever be on the court at the same time.
Mr. Karl, your team needed J.R. Smith to start this game, to have the confidence of a starter, to have the 3-point shooting of a starter, and the courage to attack the Great Wall of Los Angeles of a starter. Bench players do not ever have much if any success taking it to the rack against the Great Wall of Los Angeles. You needed Smith to be in the flow with the other starters, to not be the odd man out at crunch time like he was.
Instead of a full scale, starting J.R. Smith at the end of the game, you had J.R. Smith standing there on the line with 3 seconds left and having to miss his second free throw on purpose so that the Nuggets might get lucky and be able to stuff in a tying bucket at the buzzer.
Instead, Kobe Bryant, another 2-guard like Smith, snagged Smith's intentional miss and heeved it down court as the last 3 seconds ran out.
Let's compare here:
Kobe Bryant, Lakers starter, 2-guard, Superstar and usually almost perfect, is fully trusted by his Coach even though he can be a little impulsive, headstrong, and immature. And even though he used to be much more so than now.
J.R. Smith: Nuggets reserve, 2-guard, definitely a Star and almost a Superstar, is NOT trusted all that much by his Coach because he can be impulsive, headstrong, and immature. And because he used to be much more so than now.
See the difference? See one reason that Phil Jackson is a better Coach than is George Karl?
Phil Jackson always respects offense, and he will make any player who can bring offense all that he can be. He will not stuff a player like J.R. Smith down a hole on the bench somewhere. Granted, the very risk-averse Lakers' managers would probably never "take a chance" with a very young and raw player such as Smith in the first place. But if they did have him, Phil Jackson would not stuff him down a rat hole on the bench.
Jackson does not mess around with trying to have someone win the Best 6th Man Award. He puts his best five players out there as starters, and he uses a large rotation, almost always 9 players and sometimes 10, with the 4-5 reserves being insurance policies for wins. The idea behind all these reserves as insurance is that you have four or even five wild card chances amongst your reservies to empower and enable a player who is "feeling it" in a particular game, and so is able to pump in 10-15 points in 10-20 minutes, and/or is able to make some brilliant stops.
Coaches: follow what Phil Jackson does! Trust me (or actually trust Phil, laugh out loud) you will win more games that way.
Another thing Mr. Karl does not understand besides the importance of offense in general is that 2-guards are supposed to be a little impulsive and headstrong and they are in most team situations supposed to be a little more concerned with offense than with defense. The position is called "shooting guard". Shooting as in what is done on offense. Get it?
Guards who are careful and thinking often and not usually instinctual and impulsive, are point guards, not shooting guards. You need both kinds of guards on your team to win the Quest.
An NBA coach, just like any coach, is supposed to make all of his players all that they can be. Sports is not about pigeonholing and red flagging players for personality characteristcs beyond their control and that have little impact on playing the game when all is said and done.
I will grant you that Karl has come a long way from two years ago, when Smith was not even allowed to play a dozen minutes a game in the Nuggets 4-1 first round loss to the Spurs. He wasn't allowed to play at all, in fact.
What a confidence booster and good development that was. Not.
Unfortunately, Mr. Karl has not come far enough with respect to J.R. Smith and, as a direct result, Smith has not come far enough and, as a direct result of that, the Nuggets lost game one of this series. One thing leads to another, you know.
More broadly, it seems at the moment that the Nuggets are going to lose this series. The number one reason will NOT be that defensive intensity and a lot of fouling is a hopeless strategy. (If that's the only way you can defend well, then you have no choice but to go for it.)
No, it seems that the Nuggets are going to lose the series because Karl and the Nuggets do not understand that basketball is NOT biased in favor of defense the way football is. Karl and the Nuggets do not understand that you can not have a substantial number of players out there who have very little role to play in the offense. 
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