The Situation: Real Team Ratings as of March 5, 2010: the Los Angeles Lakers Regain the Lead Over Denver and Gain on the Leading Cleveland Cavaliers
REAL TEAM RATINGS
NBA 2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF MARCH 5, 2010
1 Cleveland Cavaliers 48.00
2 Los Angeles Lakers 38.20
3 Orlando Magic 33.00
4 Denver Nuggets 29.10
5 Dallas Mavericks 20.10
6 Atlanta Hawks 16.90
7 Utah Jazz 16.90
8 Boston Celtics 15.30
9 San Antonio Spurs 5.60
10 Portland Trail Blazers 5.10
11 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.70
12 Phoenix Suns -0.80
13 Charlotte Bobcats -9.30
14 Chicago Bulls -14.50
15 Miami Heat -15.00
16 Milwaukee Bucks -16.10
17 New Orleans Hornets -17.00
18 Houston Rockets -18.40
19 Memphis Grizzlies -19.70
20 Washington Wizards -30.50
21 Toronto Raptors -35.40
22 Detroit Pistons -39.20
23 Philadelphia 76ers -40.70
24 Los Angeles Clippers -43.30
25 New York Knicks -45.20
26 Indiana Pacers -48.70
27 Sacramento Kings -51.40
28 Golden State Warriors -60.20
29 Minnesota Timberwolves -70.50
30 New Jersey Nets -84.10
CONFERENCE AND LEAGUE FINALS PROJECTIONS AS OF MARCH 5, 2010
2010 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
Los Angeles Lakers over Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3
2010 NBA WEST FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers over Denver Nuggets 4-2
2010 NBA EAST FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers over Orlando Magic 4-2
CONTENDER BREAKDOWN
Includes links to the best team performance page available on the Internet
CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS
Los Angeles Lakers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Orlando Magic
CURRENT WILD CARD CONTENDERS
Denver Nuggets
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks
CURRENT LONG SHOT CONTENDERS
Atlanta Hawks
San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz
THE EAST SITUATION: CLEVELAND HAS A GOOD LEAD OVER ORLANDO
Since about the first of the year, the Celtics have consistently disappointed while the Cavaliers have surged and while the Orlando Magic have moved steadily ahead. The Celtics have had serious injury problems, so it is certainly possible that they remain at least even with the Magic at full strength. However, we decided to bump the Magic ahead of the Celtics, at least for now, due to:
--The nightmare loss by the Celtics to the worst team in the League at home: the New Jersey Nets. Probably no NBA finalist in history has ever lost to the worst team in the League at home.
--Two days earlier, on February 25, the Celtics were buried at home by the Cavaliers themselves by 20 points.
--The Orlando lead over Boston in the Real Team Ratings (above) is now almost 18 points, which together with home court advantage would make Orlando a pretty good favorite over Boston in a series. The Celtics are also 33 points behind the Cavaliers, which unless there is a big change or a miracle means the Celtics can not beat the Cavaliers in a series this year.
Among the top Celtics, power forward and historical superstar Kevin Garnett has missed 11 out of 59 games so far this year and star and small forward Paul Pierce has missed ten games so far this year. On the other hand, superstar and point guard Rajon Rondo, solid starter and shooting guard Ray Allen and starting center Kendrick Perkins have missed only one game each.
It seems that although the Celtics have been hampered somewhat by injuries, they are falling short of Cleveland and very possibly Orlando even after adjusting for injuries. The Celtics are fooling themselves if they think that just getting injury free alone will enable them to battle the Cavaliers to the end this year. Rather, even at full strength, the Celtics can probably win only three games at the very most in a best of seven against Cleveland this year, unless they ramp it up a little.
In any event, the Celtics are injury free as of the date of this report. The Orlando Magic are also injury free. The Cleveland Cavaliers are largely injury free, but they have just lost superstar center Shaquille O'Neal until sometime during the first round of the playoffs (late April). O'Neal had surgery on his sprained right thumb and will be out eight weeks. It could have been much worse: the surgery could have been a month from now in which case O'Neal would have been lost for much of the playoffs.
Moreover, O’Neal previously missed half a dozen games but the Cavaliers had little if any trouble winning without him. The returning squad from 2008-09, especially the guards and power forward Anderson Varejao, have grown very comfortable indeed playing with LeBron James in a coordinated way. The Cavaliers know full well that if any player tries to be an alpha dog on a LeBron James team other than LeBron James himself, the net result will be bad. Put yourself under the LeBron James umbrella and do your absolute best under that umbrella and it’s all good. Realize too that O'Neal plays only about 23 minutes a game when he is not injured.
The Cavaliers did make an outstanding just before the trade deadline exchange where they received Antawn Jamison (veteran Wizards star, almost a superstar) for Zydrunas Ilgauskas (more or less replaced by Shaquille O’Neill and Anderson Varejao and fading badly from prior star status.)
The Cavaliers also picked up role player and point guard Sebastian Telfair in the just before the deadline trade. Cleveland was living dangerously with just two point guards on its roster. When starting point guard Mo Williams (solid starter and possible star) was lost to the Cavaliers for about a month starting January 21, the Cavaliers were left with only one true point guard, the very young but extremely good three-point shooter Daniel Gibson. The acquisition of Telfair increased the number of point guards on the Cavaliers from two to three. Three is enough to cover the Championship run if one of them is injured. Although LeBron James can play any position very well with the possible exception of center, you don’t want to run even a small chance that there will be only one true point guard on the team for a Championship run.
Telfair by the way has not actually played for the Cavaliers yet: he has been out since January 21 due to an injury but is due back very soon.
As for Orlando, they are proof positive that being able to hit threes and not being afraid to try a good number of them are major assets. Being able to hit threes becomes even more important come playoff time. Like it or not, the three point shot is a very important factor that you try to downplay at your own peril. There are five teams that make a greater percentage of threes this year than do the Magic, including amazingly the Nuggets, but the Magic attempt and make more threes than any other team by far.
The big success of the Magic this year proves to you that as long as you are among the better three-point shooting teams, you should strongly consider firing away from beyond the arc. If you are well above average at making them, don’t be timid about trying them; you will be heavily rewarded if you are good at making them and you are not shy about trying them. The Nuggets are technically better at making threes this year than are the Magic, but they make only two thirds as many threes due to George Karl thinking that attempting a lot of them has to be a bad thing.
Losing Hedo Turkoglu did not adversely affect either the defense or the offense of the Magic. Generally speaking, the most important positions for winning playoff games are point guard and center. The Magic happen to have one of the best point guards, Jameer Nelson, and also one of the best centers, Dwight Howard.
THE WEST SITUATION: LAKERS REGAIN THE LEAD OVER THE NUGGETS
It was quite amazing when on February 2 it was seen that the Denver Nuggets had moved ahead of the Lakers by about six points. But as you can see above, the Lakers in the last month have moved past the Nuggets again and are now nine points ahead. You will see more about the Lakers in the Championship section not far below.
Although at the beginning of this season we intended to mostly cover the Celtics and the Cavaliers, that plan was scrapped when the Nuggets pulled more rabbits out of more hats. We just can not shake these Nuggets no matter how hard we try; the Nuggets are the gift that keeps on giving for a site that has adopted explaining how basketball is won and lost as mission one. For one thing, the Nuggets keep winning a very large number of regular season games and yet they continue to have a complete inability to win the most important games in the playoffs. By figuring out and explaining why, we are making major progress in our mission.
Quite honestly, for everything we actually have time to do here at Quest, there are half a dozen or more things we pledged to do but never have time to do. The yearly Production Plan has become more and more of a joke. But at least the broad outline of the editorial plan survives the rock and roll month to month progress of our project. At least we don't ever drop our adopted focus on the playoffs and especially on the Championship. And we never will, because once you start focusing on the most important games, you don't ever want to go back to those meaningless games involving the Grizzlies or the Timberwolves, laugh out loud.
For the second straight year (or the third straight if you count acquiring Iverson in December 2007) the Nuggets produced stars or at least near stars out of thin air. This year, Arron Afflalo is playing far, far better than he did for the Pistons last year. And the Timberwolves foolishly let drafted point guard Ty Lawson (think young Allen Iverson without the drama) go to Denver for a song. Even before the arrivals of Afflalo and Lawson, the Nuggets already had superstar point guard Chauncey Billups and somewhere between good role player and superstar J.R. Smith (who knows anymore, laugh out loud). The four of those players together constitute one of the very best 4-guard rosters around this year (most probably the best) and probably the best such roster in the history of the Nuggets.
If Smith could be at the higher end of his huge possible range and if Afflalo keeps hitting threes at a miracle rate and keeps defending like there is no tomorrow, this group of four guards could be enough not only to scare the Lakers but to actually defeat them if it were not for the huge problem the Nuggets have created for themselves in the paint defensively. See any of three recent Reports for extensive details of the Nuggets' defensive mess.
Looking at it pessimistically on the other hand though, Ty Lawson at the moment is out indefinitely with a bruised shoulder. And J.R. Smith sometimes seems these days like he might at any moment become one of the worst 2-guards in history. (Contrary to popular belief, this was not always so, laugh out loud.) Further, the idea of Arron Afflalo being a 45% three point shooter in the playoffs may be nothing more than fantasy. Moreover, does Chauncey Billups run a world class pro basketball offense that has a little bit of organization to it? No he does not. For all of these reasons, even the Nuggets' "guard miracle" might fizzle out before the fat lady sings this year.
If the guard miracle does in fact fizzle, and given the Nuggets' defensive mess that George Karl refuses to even recognize let alone solve, the Nuggets could be left with a quick second or even first round exit this year. The other day I was thinking, for example, that if the Nuggets finish third seed and have to play a sixth seed Phoenix Suns, they could easily lose to the Suns who for one thing will not be at any disadvantage at all from the Nuggets' pushing the pace because they push the pace even more so than the Nuggets.
Owner Marc Cuban of the Mavericks tried at the trade deadline to give his team a major shot in the arm after they tanked badly in the second half of December and in January. They lost about as many games as they won during that time and that constitutes tanking if you are a team that really wants to and theoretically might possibly be able to go to the Championship. Marc Cuban by the way, to his credit, actively tries these days to help his team more so than any other owner, and you have to much respect that.
Five days before the deadline, the Mavericks traded Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, James Singleton, and Quinton Ross to Washington for 2-guard / small forward Caron Butler, who has generally been a star during eight seasons, center Brendan Haywood, who has been at least a solid starter and close to a star during nine seasons, and 2-guard DeShawn Stevenson, who was poor in 2008-09 but a role player the year before, and cash considerations.
Stevenson will seldom play because both Butler and Jason Terry are much better.
Butler is a very nice and very important pick-up, but Haywood may actually be more important since the Mavericks already had good guard shooting and plenty of outside shooting thanks to power forward and historical superstar Dirk Nowitzki before the trade. My opinion was always that starting center Erick Dampier was (a) overrated by the Mavericks and (b) not good enough to enable the Mavs to win a Ring, especially since Dirk Nowitzki ranges in and out of the paint both on offense and defense, creating a big need for a star, stay at home paint defender at center. Dampier is at best a solid starter and it seems unlikely he will ever be a star in the playoffs. He was badly beaten by the Nuggets last spring.
Sure enough, the Mavericks now consider Haywood to be the starting center and Dampier to be the reserve. This is a bigger upgrade for the Mavericks than many will think. But on the other hand it remains doubtful that Haywood will be good enough in the paint, in conjunction with Nowitzki, Dampier, and reserve power forwards Tim Thomas and Eduardo Najera to enable Dallas to tangle with the awesome front court of the Lakers. Beating the Nuggets in a playoff series this year, though, has once again doable for the up and down Mavericks, who are up again right now and gaining on the Nuggets.
It could end up being the Jazz instead of the Mavericks, though, who challenge the Nuggets for second in the West. Why? Because the Jazz are cranking so well that they are even winning on the road these days; maybe Jerry Sloan is not too old after all. And meanwhile the Mavericks all of a sudden have significant injury problems:
--Reserve but important power forward Tim Thomas is apparently out for the season for family reasons. Thomas has been caring for his wife who has been suffering from serious health issues. But as discussed, the Mavericks need every good paint defender they can get.
--Reserve but very important center Erick Dampier has been out since February 17 due to a finger dislocation. He is due back by mid March, however.
--Star 2-guard Jason Terry, who now along with Caron Butler forms what is probably the best 2-guard tandem in the League, took an elbow to the face March 3 against the Timberwolves but managed to return to the game. But he will soon have surgery to repair a broken orbital bone and will be out until probably late March or early April. But like with O’Neal in Cleveland, this would have been much worse if it had happened a month later.
The rest of the injury situation in the West is that the Denver Nuggets and the moving up from the outside Utah Jazz are currently injury free.
For the Lakers, as mentioned earlier, sometimes just satisfactory and sometimes good role player Sasha Vujacic has been out since February 19. Vujacic is not expected to return until late March after suffering a grade one shoulder sprain on his right shoulder. He still can't raise his right arm and isn't allowed to shoot yet. Also, Luke Walton, who is a good to major role player who backs up Ron Artest at small forward, has been out since February 19 due to a pinched nerve in the back. When Walton will return is quite uncertain, though it seems probably he will be available for the Lakers’ Championship run. His goal is still to get back for the playoffs and then after the playoffs make a decision about surgery.
All in all, the Lakers’ injury situation is not really that bad because Jordan Farmar can sub in for Vujacic quite well and because the Lakers practically don’t need Walton given how much massive firepower they have in the front court.
THE 2010 CHAMPIONSHIP
Let's first briefly summarize how this season's Championship projections have gone. For the Championship projection we are back where we started. At the beginning of the season and again right now we think the Cavaliers will meet the Lakers in the 2010 Championship and we think the Lakers will win the series 4-3. (4-2 would not be a surprise.) But the Cavaliers got off to such a stumbling start and the Boston Celtics got off to such an extremely strong start in November that we switched our prediction to Lakers 4 Celtics 2 for the 2010 Championship in December. Then the Celtics stumbled and the Cavaliers surged in the second half of December and in January, so the next change was to Cavaliers 4 Lakers 3 which was the projection from mid January until the end of February. When the Lakers vanquished the Nuggets 95-89 in an historical come from behind victory on February 28 in LA, we switched the Championship prediction to back where it started: Lakers 4 Cavaliers 3.
The Cavaliers have about a ten point Real Team Rating lead over the Los Angeles Lakers for the 2010 Championship. However, the Lakers could end up with home court advantage and they definitely have a coaching advantage that could easily be worth about 15 or even 20 points. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson has been working very hard recently to get the Lakers tuned up for the coming playoffs. For example, Jackson recently correctly determined that the easiest way to beat the Nuggets is to over weight plays into the paint in order to take advantage of the Nuggets' poor paint defending.
Jackson and the Lakers have, at least since their second round series against the Rockets last spring, been taking their sweet time to determine and implement winning strategies against good teams they have to beat to win a Ring. But there is a big, big difference between being a little slow to figure out how to win and never being able to figure it out at all. Bet against Phil Jackson at your own risk; we think Jackson and his Lakers will be able to contain LeBron by just enough to get his 11th Ring, while Kobe Bryant will get his 5th.
Prior to now, we were thinking the Lakers would lose in the 2010 Championship because:
--The Lakers had poor guard play (other than Kobe Bryant)
--Phil Jackson didn't seem to know how to beat the Nuggets with their improbably jam packed with raw talent lineup yet
--Pau Gasol had serious injury problems
--Except for Kobe, the Lakers offense in general and passing game in particular was lagging. The defense was top notch but the offense was sagging pretty badly.
All of these things have been improving or are completely resolved with the possible exception of the first. One of the potentially better Laker guards, Sasha Vujacic, is now out indefinitely due to a sprained shoulder and that certainly does not help matters in the LA back court. But Kobe Bryant is certainly capable of making up for a back court that is poor to fair except for him. He's that good whether or not he is quite the all time best guard, which is debatable.
Remember, the Championship has a unique home court pattern. Instead of 2-2-1-1-1, the pattern is 2-3-2. This means that the team which has home court advantage can win the series at home either in game six or in game seven. The team without home court advantage in the Championship will often have to win the series on the road since the majority of Championships go for six or seven games. In order for the team that does not have home court advantage to win the series at home, they would have to win either game one or game two on the road and then win all three straight games home (games three through five). Home court advantage in the NBA playoffs is worth slightly more than home court advantage in the other series as a result of this oddity. Even if the team with the advantage loses one of the first two games, it will usually be very unlikely that it will lose three straight on the road, so at worse it will be 3-2 in favor of the other team when the series returns to the building of the team with the home court advantage. So the team with the advantage can still win the series in that scenario by winning games six and seven at home.
Should Cleveland get home court advantage, we are predicting that the Lakers will win one of the two games in Cleveland or, less likely will lose them but then win all three in LA and then win the Ring in either game six or game seven in Cleveland. Should LA get home court advantage, we are predicting that LA will win both of the first two games and then one of the three straight games in Cleveland, leaving them with the relatively easy task of winning either game six or game seven in LA. In short, we think the series is going to be close but we think the Lakers will have enough to prevail against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
We could be wrong and this is not a guarantee of any kind. Injuries can and often do make projections such as this completely off. We just do these projections for the how the Quest is won information value of them.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Team Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.
