Carmelo Anthony: A Star Player but a Superstar Scoring Leader

Some star and superstar small forwards need a superstar point guard, some need a superstar center or power forward whose defending is outstanding, and some need both. Carmelo Anthony needs both. All players who intend to win The Quest for the Ring need at a rock bottom minimum good coaching and it makes it must easier if there is outstanding coaching. All players who intend to win the Quest need good or better than good managers.

Often a good owner is responsible for making sure the managers and the coaches are good so ultimately having a good owner may be a necessity also. I say “may” because it is theoretically possible to have an owner who is not good and you still might win the Quest with outstanding managers, coaches, and players. But what are the odds that an owner who is not good has outstanding managers, coaches, and players on his team? Those odds are not good.

But getting back to Carmelo, I wrote not too long ago that he needs a superstar point guard more than anything. The reason is something on which he agrees with us and disagrees with Nuggets’ head coach George Karl (and others who agree with Karl) regarding what is the best way for players to go about their business while trying to win the Quest. He agrees with us that the best thing to do is to maximize strengths and not worry so much about weaknesses. The other side of the argument is that all players have to try to get better at all aspects of the game and should work harder on weaknesses than strengths. The idea of the other side is that you can win the Quest if you have a whole bunch of players who are good at most of the elements of basketball.

The Quest for the Ring (and Carmelo Anthony) side of the argument is that the way the Quest is won is that players identify the things they do best (between two and five things to put a number on it) and they keep trying to get even better at those things than they already are. They are already outstanding but the goal is to become the very best at those two or three or four things. Underlying our side is the comparative advantage theory (that comes from economics but of course can be true and valuable outside of economics.)

When they practice it’s mostly not what they are weak at but it is what they are already outstanding at that is mostly what a player serious about winning the Quest practices, over and over and over. Think of shooting guard Ray Allen who finally won the Quest in 2008. Most basketball people know he is constantly in the gym (voluntarily on his free time) perfecting his shooting. Why is clear. He knows he is among the best pressure 3-point shooters and long 2-point jump shooters and he wants to maintain this skill at the very highest level.

Unfortunately, all of that practice and all of his outstanding history failed to produce even a good performance in the 2010 Championship let alone a great one. All the Celtics needed to win the 2010 Quest was for Ray Allen to be good and in several of the seven games he was not good at all.

But Ray Allen is very often outstanding and very valuable in 3-point shooting so that exception does not disprove the point that it is better for Ray Allen to spend his time maintaining his 3-point shooting and trying to get even better. In 2008 Ray Allen’s 3-point shooting percentage was .398 and guess what? That is exactly the superstar level for 3-point shooting:

3-POINT SHOOTING PERCENTAGE STANDARDS
.438 Historical Superstar Level
.398 Superstar Level
.376 Star Level
.359 Well Above Average Level
.334 Above Average Level
.315 Average or Standard Level

First you better realize that seemingly tiny or small differences in something like a shooting percentage translate into winning or losing playoff games just like the sun comes up in the morning. Second you better realize that players substantially help their teams to win the Quest if and only if they have at least one skill at the superstar level. The star level helps a little but the superstar level in a skill is what by far helps the team the most to win playoff games and Championships. By definition, for any component of basketball there are players all over the place who are less than superstars and there are only a very small number of superstars.

Overall superstars are simply players who have several skills at the superstar level (maintained and increased by practice and experience in games). LeBron James is an historical superstar because there must be at least half a dozen things he does at the superstar level. Chris Paul is another historical superstar and although the list of things he is a superstar in is shorter than the LeBron James list, he is one of the best point guards of all time and since being a superstar point guard is at the very top of the heap in importance that alone is just about enough to make him a superstar and then when you add in Chris Paul’s outstanding shooting and his outstanding defending you most definitely have an historical superstar in Chris Paul. In fact, when we revised the 2008-09 Real Player Ratings using the 2009-10 formulas which were slight improvements over the previous year, we were surprised to find out that in 2008-09, Chris Paul and LeBron James were essentially tied as the best players in the NBA that year.

We know that Carmelo Anthony is not a superstar overall the way LeBron James or Chris Paul are. But stars and especially star shooting guards and star small forwards are crucial toward winning the Quest as well. Having two and even three superstars is not enough; you need at least one and preferably two plain old stars to go along with that.

WHAT EXACTLY IS CARMELO ANTHONY A SUPERSTAR IN?
Carmelo Anthony is just a star so far because he doesn’t do four or five or six basketball things at the superstar level. But even to be just a star you have to do at least one thing at the superstar level. So what does Carmelo Anthony do at the superstar level? Well, surprisingly, nothing in the strict sense. But this is one of those things that makes basketball more complicated than you think it is. Strictly and narrowly speaking, there is a list of basketball actions (or components) and you can calculate what it takes to be a superstar in any of them, as we did for 3-point shooting above.

But aside from the strict list there is what you might call the broad list. Here is where most people get lost. We’ll first explain what the broad list is NOT by explaining how exactly most people don’t understand this subject. Many, many and to me it seems that it is most people know there is a broad list but they go way, way overboard in how they think of the broad list. They go way into the abstract and they go all the way outside of basketball completely. They start talking about “leadership” and “hustle” and at the team level at least they start talking about “chemistry”. All of those things are abstractions and all of them are broad generalities, and guess what? All abstractions and broad generalities are much less important and valuable than you think they are. Or perhaps it is more accurate to say that the abstractions and broad generalities are simply bad and misleading labels for what is really involved. Simply put, you need to be a lot more specific.

Let’s take “leadership”. This is one of those vague abstractions which is too broad and too vague to mean much of anything. Now what if we try to make it more specific and connect it with the everyday actions like assists, turnovers, and the 2-point shooting percentage? What if we create a concept called “scoring leadership”? Well if we do that we have just created a valuable thing that on the one hand is not an everyday box score component but on the other hand is not something broad and vague that is talked about in the media all the time but ultimately doesn’t really mean anything.

WHAT EXACTLY IS A SCORING LEADER?
The concept of “scoring leadership” brings us back to Carmelo Anthony because that what he is: he is a Scoring Leader. This is a very, very important specific, real skill toward a team winning The Quest for the Ring. A team doesn't absolutely have to have a scoring leader to win the Quest but it makes it far easier if it does and most Quest winners do have true scoring leaders.

A scoring leader has at least the following core characteristics:

--He maintains a high shooting percentage.

--He avoids bad shots more than most players do.

--He understands what his favorite shots are and takes those shots more often than most players do. In other words he specializes in certain very specific types of shots.

--He can score well in many different ways, many more ways than the average player can.

--If he is not scoring well in the first half he gets perturbed or upset and tries even harder later in the game to at least make enough scores to avoid a complete disaster of a night.

--In every game he understands that as the scoring leader it is his responsibility to make enough scores for the team to easily win the game.

The last one is probably the most important one and is the heart of the definition of a scoring leader. Whether the team actually wins the game or not depends not only on a scoring leader but also on other crucial skills and specifically on whether there is at least one player at the superstar level in many of those other skills. Playmaking and defending are two other absolutely crucial skills. But Carmelo Anthony is not a superstar defender and he is not a superstar playmaker and he never will be, so unless there is at least one and preferably several superstar defenders and playmakers on his team he is never going to win the Quest for the Ring.

So now you might be saying, “Well, Carmelo Anthony isn’t all that then”. And you are wrong because true scoring leaders are actually rare and are actually very, very valuable if there are those other superstar skills somewhere among the starters and key non-starters and if the coaching is right. Virtually all players are afraid to take responsibility to be volume scorers who get at minimum 20 points a game and go for 30 or more every single game without exception. In other words most players including most good scorers don’t give much of a damn when they have a game where they didn’t even score 10 points. A scoring leader is obsessed with scoring and is very upset when he doesn’t score at least 20 points and is ultra upset when he doesn’t score at least 10 points. And keep in mind that getting at least 20 points every single game is a lot more difficult than merely averaging 20 points a game.

Incidentally, although scoring leaders can play any position, in most cases it is much better for a team if a scoring leader is a two, a three or a four (a shooting guard, a small forward, or a power forward). The point guard should be a scoring leader if and only if we are talking about an historical superstar who can handle both the scoring responsibility and the playmaking responsibility at the same time. This will be rare. All point guards without exception have to have the primary playmaking responsibility or it will be extremely difficult if not impossible for that team to win the Quest. The center should be a scoring leader if and only if we are talking about an historical superstar who can handle both the scoring responsibility and the paint defending responsibility at the same time. This will be rare. Most centers (the exception being if there are at least two lock down paint defenders among the other centers and power forwards) have the primary paint defending responsibility or it will be extremely difficult if not impossible for that team to win the Quest.

Scoring leaders are most valuable when they are either shooting guards or small forwards. Scoring leaders are most valuable of all when they are small forwards because given exactly what basketball is and given the exact characteristics that are most needed by position, small forwards have the greatest possible set of ways to score the ball whereas all the other positions have a lesser total number of ways for scoring the ball. So if you have a small forward scoring leader this is the most valuable type of scoring leader. And don’t forget that having a real scoring leader is not valued enough (at least in the US) ironic though that might seem.

REASONS WHY THE SCORING LEADER IS SO VALUABLE
To have that rare thing called a true scoring leader is very, very valuable because:

--The point guard’s job is so much easier because he knows where to go with the ball when the other team has turned on the defending jets and is practically locking out all of the lesser scorers.

--And the point guard knows where to go with the ball when many of the other players are not scoring well and when the team offense is generally below average.

--Whenever the team is behind by 10 or more the team is still in the game with a scoring leader who gets more motivated in this situation than usually (whereas players who are not scoring leaders start to lose confidence that the game is winnable).

--Whenever the scoring leader is rolling (and will end up with about 30 points or more) the team will often be able to lead the game most of the game and of course leading is better than being behind.

--The coaches and sometimes the players too of the other team are continually thinking about if and when to double team the scoring leader and there is a lot less time for thinking about other strategies and tactics (which obviously is a good thing for the scoring leaders’ team because now there are going to be fewer smart things done by the opponent.)

--During actual double teams, now the coaches and players of the team with the scoring leader have a good number of strategies and tactics open to them that are never open to teams that don’t have a player who is being double teamed. Obviously, it is much, much easier to pass the ball around and get somebody a completely open shot when the scoring leader is doubled. Of course, if that somebody is a poor shooter than the double team has worked; the idea for the scoring leaders’ team is to NOT take the bait and end up having a relatively poor shooter take a relatively poor shot. In general winning the Quest for the Ring is just as much about avoiding lesser shooters taking low percentage shots as it is about making sure better shooters take high percentage shots. You do both or you will not ever be winning the Quest for the Ring.

For emphasis there are few true scoring leaders in the NBA. Among players with high points per game numbers, not all of them are true scoring leaders, especially among the ones on poor teams. At the same time, most players who are superstars in one or more types of shooting are NOT scoring leaders. For example, Ray Allen is not a scoring leader because unlike Carmelo Anthony he can’t score in many ways and therefore because it would not be reasonable for Ray Allen to in every single Celtics game take responsibility to make enough scores for the Celtics to easily win the game.

WHAT IS NOT IMPORTANT AND WHAT IS IN BASKETBALL
Basketball may seem simple but as always looks are deceiving and there are a lot of behind the front scenes components involved. Ironically on the other hand, people dream of vague and broad components that are not really components of basketball, like leadership, hustle, chemistry, style, and personality. Things like this either need to be specified much more exactly to have any real meaning in regards to winning playoff games or else (as in the case of style and personality) have virtually no importance whatsoever toward winning basketball games and especially playoff games.

There are too many basketball components for anyone to become good at all of them. Every single player is mediocre or poor at some things in basketball and no player is outstanding at everything. LeBron James is not a lock down, superstar paint defender and he never will be. LeBron James is a good playmaker but is not an outstanding playmaker and he most likely never will be. LeBron James is not an outstanding 3-point shooter and never will be.

For players to try to become better at a long laundry list of things is not the smartest way to spend practice time. The smartest thing to do is for players to maintain and get even better at what they are the best at. Then the managers and the coaches are responsible for on court rotations and rosters that include as many of the components as possible at the superstar level. When all is said and done Carmelo Anthony and Quest for the Ring are right and the other side of the argument is wrong.

THE NEXT RIVER CARMELO ANTHONY NEEDS TO CROSS
So we are impressed that Carmelo Anthony disagreed with George Karl and made it across this river in The Quest for the Ring. Now Carmelo’s next river to cross involves whether he knows what (and examples of whom) he needs on his team to win the Quest. I already have told him (and everybody) what he most needs: a superstar center or power forward with outstanding paint defending and a true superstar point guard who makes a lot of assists. He also needs the high quality coaching. At any given time there are only a handful of teams that have these things that Carmelo Anthony needs. But there are always at least three or four of them and occasionally there are more. So if Carmelo Anthony really wants to cross the next river in the Quest he has to find exactly these things and not just hope they will fall into his lap like magic.