How and Why the Denver Nuggets are on the Brink of Disaster, Part Two
This series consists of three Parts; this part is Part Two.
How and Why the Denver Nuggets are on the Brink of Disaster, Part One
How and Why the Denver Nuggets are on the Brink of Disaster, Part Two
How and Why the Denver Nuggets are on the Brink of Disaster, Part ThreeIn Part One I started the explanation of how and why the Denver Nuggets are on the brink of falling back to being a 20-30 wins team. This is what they were before Carmelo Anthony came to the team in 2004. They were 17-55 in the year before Anthony arrived and they were 27-45 in the year before that.
Here in Parts Two and Three I will go over in detail the top ten specific reasons why the Nuggets are likely to become a 20-30 wins team sometime between 2011-12 and 2012-13. There is an outside chance it will take until 2013-14 for this to happen (after all, the Nuggets seem to be very good at putting off the "day of reckoning" which I thought a few years ago would already be here right now, silly me).
Part Two here has reasons one through five and Part Three has reasons six through ten. The reasons are sort of in random order. I made sure the number of words breakdown is roughly equal between parts and I intentionally made sure that the anticipated salary cap rules changes reason was put last because a couple of the prior reasons are needed to emphasize how important that one is. Other than that the order is basically random and so the reasons are NOT in the order of importance. Although some of the reasons are obviously more important than others, all of the reasons are very important and there was little to be gained by exactly ranking the reasons.
George Karl will probably escape most or all blame because he will probably be gone by the time the Nuggets drop back to 20-30 wins again. His contract will be over by then, he will probably want to retire by then, and he most likely will not want to be around when Carmelo Anthony is gone and when the Nuggets have been unable to fully replace him and when the Nuggets have all kinds of other roster problems as well. I don't know for sure, and don't ask me why I think this because it is just one of those educated guesses, but I fairly strongly think that this is not going to be a Jerry Sloan type situation where the coach continues on long into retirement age. In other words I am thinking that Karl is going to do his damage and then be gone by the time the chickens come home to roost.
Many of the reasons listed are things that Karl could have and should have helped the Nuggets avoid, but some of the reasons are on the owner, Stanley Kroenke. And of course the owner is ultimately responsible for whom the coach is, especially in this organization. So one of the most important evolutions of Quest for the Ring (QFTR) for 2010 is that we are now out front blaming the owner for the Nuggets situation just as much as we are blaming George Karl. We sort of indirectly and lightly were blaming the owner in prior years but now it is high time that this be put front and center. The situation has gone too far to justify holding back on the owner anymore.
For those of you who keep saying: “But these guys deserve praise and not blame because after all, the lowly Nuggets have won 50 or more games for three straight years and they reached the West Conference finals in 2009”, go ahead and say so.” I agree with that to a limited extent, which only goes to show that this stuff is more complicated than it might at first appear.
But as a very critical, perfectionist type person, I look at how good the players have been in recent years (all of them, including the benched ones, the given away ones, and the traded away ones) and I honestly think the Nuggets should have been in at least one Championship by now in recent years. In other words, to me it is clear that the Nuggets underachieved. Probably more importantly, if the Nuggets go over the brink, I am convinced now that Karl and Kroenke will be to blame.
Basically, to make a long story short, the owner and the head coach of the Nuggets have a choke hold over what happens to the franchise. The owner reserves more specific decision making to himself than is the norm among NBA owners, and of course at the player and games management levels George Karl reserves total control over these aspects as many other head coaches do.
But amazingly there is no evidence that Stanley Kroenke and George Karl coordinate their managements or even that they have regular discussions. Paradoxically, even though Kroenke is an activist owner and even though he makes decisions the general manager is allowed to make in other franchises, he doesn’t seem to think that he should interfere in any way, shape, or form in what the head coach does. Because of that lack of communication and because the general manager(s) in between Kroenke and Karl have much less power in this franchise than in most others, it seems more and more evident that the Nuggets' relatively unique management structure is poor compared to that of most other teams.
That is probably an understatement. Chances are that it will become even clearer in the months and years ahead that the Nuggets’ management structure is a complete disaster. I certainly would never recommend that any franchise have the kind of management structure and processes that the Nuggets have.
The titles of and the order of the reasons are:
1. General management
2. J.R. Smith
3. The power forwards and centers
4. Carmelo Anthony
5. George Karl
6. The owner, Stanley Kroenke
7. Opinions of NBA free agents
8. Lack of draft picks and in house talent
9. Point guard situation
10. Anticipated new salary cap rules
Reasons one, five, six and seven are probably the most important of the ten reasons. I know I am and you might agree with me that it is surprising that reason seven is one of the most important but the more I think about it the more I realize it probably is. With each passing week or at least month it has become more and more clear that reason six is the most important reason of all. Although I didn't shy away completely, by my standards I kept reason six on the down low prior to now because until now I was not 100% certain about some things, but now I am.
REASON ONE: GENERAL MANAGEMENT
The high quality managers that the Nuggets had were fired during the 2010 off season (as discussed in Part One). The new manager is Nigerian born Masai Ujiri. He was a player scout from 2002 until 2008 and then he was for a short time assistant General Manager for the Toronto Raptors. The Nuggets tried to get a more experienced general manager but they were not offering enough salary to get one.
Ironically, the Nuggets now have a general manger with very little if any experience in making trades at the exact time that Carmelo Anthony is demanding to be traded. There is a lot of evidence that Ujiri is out of the loop with respect to the trade negotiations. Other teams have been complaining about the unusual and relatively confusing management structure. Nuggets negotiators seem to be from a special and unique management layer that is rarely seen elsewhere. There is more about this in various spots of this Report and see especially Reason Six in Part Three.
There is a fairly high probability that Carmelo Anthony would already be traded as we speak if this was another franchise with a more typical management structure and process. If the Nuggets are unable to trade Carmelo Anthony and he refuses to ever sign the 65 million dollars extension offer, the Nuggets will give up another star (almost superstar) type player for nothing. They did it with Marcus Camby and if Carmelo Anthony goes for nothing that will constitute the one-two punch that lays the franchise low.
The very best run franchises never ever allow star and superstar player giveaways to happen. They either do whatever is necessary to make sure their stars and superstars remain on their teams or at a rock bottom minimum they make decent and preferably good or great trades well in advance of the deadline. The deadline for the Nuggets regarding Carmelo Anthony is the February NBA trade deadline; the clock is ticking.
Getting back to the general manager (yes, the Nuggets do have one) there was very little interest in the job due to (1) the relatively low salary offered (2) Due to the mysterious and apparently irrational firings of the prior Denver managers and (3) More broadly, due to concerns about difficulties associated with working with Stan Kroenke and those immediately surrounding him. As mentioned above, there is a management layer in the Nuggets organization that lies between the general manager(s) and the owner and most general managers are reluctant to try to operate in a dubious system like that.
Have you ever heard the expression “penny wise and pound foolish”? It applies to the Nuggets decision to save money on general manager salary this year.
REASON TWO: J.R. SMITH
When J.R. Smith originally came to the Nuggets in 2006 he was believe it or not at the time (raw and half crazy style and all) one of the best shooting guards in the NBA. And he could easily have remained one of the ten best shooting guards in the NBA. Now he may have trouble staying in the top 30.
From the get go, J.R. Smith’s playing style was fiercely, relentlessly, and largely irrationally criticized by George Karl. Regardless of how good he is (and he is even now more than good enough to start) and regardless even of how much he changes his style, today J.R. Smith is forbidden by Karl from starting, and this is true even if he gets almost as many minutes as he would get if he were starting. After he radically changed his style from what it was in 2007-08 to what it ended up being in 2009-10, his Real Player Rating (RPR) and value to the Nuggets was reduced. J.R. Smith’s RPR went from .816 in 2008-09 to .738 in 2009-10.
Arguably, J.R. Smith’s potential to be a superstar has been permanently destroyed. At the very least the odds he will be a superstar have been slashed heavily. A self fulfilling prophesy has been fulfilled here. The Nuggets in general and George Karl in particular seem to think that how well a shooting guard defends is more important than how well a shooting guard shoots, which you don’t need me to tell you does not make very much sense.
Use the title index and or the Google custom search for more details about J.R. Smith and his interactions with Nuggets coaches.
REASON THREE: THE POWER FORWARDS AND CENTERS
In recent years the Nuggets have ruined their power forward and center situation and what was not ruined by bad coaching and bad management was ruined by injuries. Marcus Camby, one of the best defenders in the NBA, was given away for virtually nothing in the 2008 off season. Kenyon Martin has never recovered 100% from major surgery on both knees, has now in the 2010 off season had knee surgery yet again, and has been way overrated during the whole ordeal. Plus the Nuggets overpaid for Martin in the first place. Although Nene is underrated a little by the Nuggets defensively and more so offensively, it is true that Nene is not now and is apparently never going to be a superstar center defensively, which is what you want to have to be on the inside track toward winning a Championship. The Nuggets refuse to look at Chris Andersen as a starter even though he does more than qualify to be both a starter and a defensive superstar and even though Andersen could overall possibly be a low end superstar until he retires in a few years. Finally and scandalously, the high potential of the young Renaldo Balkman has been totally ignored and squandered as I have repeatedly explained.
The bottom line with respect to the power forwards and centers is that the Nuggets have shot themselves in the foot so many times and they have had so many injuries that they really do have very serious problems now at those positions. There are so many problems that unless the Nuggets get very lucky they will not be able to solve all the problems at once next summer and they will probably need more than two off seasons to even attempt to develop an outstanding crew of power forwards and centers. Therefore the Nuggets will be relatively weak at these positions for the foreseeable future which means they will almost certainly continue for years to come to be a poor paint defending team as they have been for most of their history.
To make a bad situation worse, the Nuggets’ power forwards and centers have been relentlessly affected by various injuries. Basically, every single one of the forwards and centers have been banged up much more often than the norm, with the ironic exception of Balkman (who was banged up by George Karl, laugh out loud).
REASON FOUR: CARMELO ANTHONY
Carmelo Anthony wants to quit the team. There are several reasons for this, most of which have been mentioned here at one time or another. I predicted in the very early days of Quest for the Ring (QFTR) that Carmelo Anthony would eventually leave Denver because he would be forced to do so due to the hopelessness left in the wake of repeated and serious coaching and ownership errors. I predicted that Iverson would not retire a Nugget and would go first and then later Anthony would want to quit. I was right (and yes I do emphasize when I am right since at the same time I always admit when I am wrong so I have to toot my own horn all the time to remind you that I am right far more often than I am wrong.)
Right now I’ll mention just one of several (many?) reasons Anthony wants out. It’s that his playing style has been criticized in the wrong way. It’s sometimes better to not criticize at all rather than criticize in the wrong way, and this is one of those situations.
Melo was told to improve his defending, rebounding, and passing at all costs, explicitly including at the cost of reduced scoring. This was a direct attack on Anthony’s greatest strength as a basketball player. His scoring did indeed go down in 2008-09 when he did as requested. His overall rating went down because the value of the lost scoring was greater than the value of the increased rebounding, passing, and defending. A big specific problem that developed was that his shooting percentage basically went to hell in a hand basket.
During the next season, 2009-10, he realized this is not a good tradeoff and so he went back to his traditional scoring leadership, especially late in 2009-10 and during the 2010 playoffs. In summary, after trying out one of George Karl’s primary instructions and finding them wanting, Carmelo Anthony rejected them and went back to the way of doing things that was promoted by his college coach, Jim Boeheim, one of the best basketball coaches of all time.
I would also remind you that George Karl was advocating that Carmelo Anthony be traded back in the 2008 off season, although he was not insisting on it and he wanted Anthony traded only if the Nuggets could get very good value in return. Karl was of the opinion (and still is, presumably) that since Anthony is not a “well balanced player” and may not be quite “mentally tough” enough, yet at the same time he is obviously a major star player, that he is the kind of player that you can fool another team into giving up too much for. QFTR finds this humorous because if and when the Nuggets finally trade away Carmelo Anthony, it will most likely be the other team and not the Nuggets that end up with the long end of the stick. Karl doesn’t understand that a player who is a superstar in scoring, regardless of how “unbalanced” he is, is extremely valuable and can easily win the Quest if he is on the right team and if he is coached exactly correctly.
REASON FIVE: GEORGE KARL
Anything I say here would be repeating what I have already said in many other Reports, and plus I’ve mentioned Karl in some of the other reasons in this Report. The three most basic problems are that (1) Karl does not understand the exact nature of basketball and (2) Karl grossly overestimates the importance of player personalities and (3) Karl grossly overestimates the importance of particular playing styles. There are now dozens of Reports at QFTR which explain all of this in great detail and rehashing such details here would be a waste of time. For the details, see the index of titles and choose one or more applicable Reports and/or you can make use of the Google custom search. Or you could practically pick out Reports at random since this subject is covered in so many of them, laugh out loud.
Reasons six through ten and concluding remarks follow in Part Three.