The Situation as of November 7, 2010: We Project the Los Angeles Lakers Versus the Boston Celtics in the 2011 Championship
CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS as of November 7, 2010
THE EAST
Main Primary Contender: Boston Celtics
Alternate Primary Contender: Miami Heat
Wild Card: Orlando Magic
Long Shot: Chicago Bulls
Extreme Long Shot: Milwaukee Bucks
THE WEST
Main Primary Contender: Los Angeles Lakers
Alternate Primary Contender: Portland Trailblazers
Wild Card: San Antonio Spurs
Long Shot: Dallas Mavericks
Extreme Long Shot: Oklahoma Thunder
CONFERENCE AND LEAGUE FINALS PROJECTIONS AS OF NOVEMBER 7, 2010
2010 NBA EAST FINAL
Boston Celtics over Miami Heat 4-3
2011 NBA WEST FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers over Portland Trailblazers 4-2
2011 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics 4-2
We’ll post summaries of the top teams in each “Situation” report. In this one, we will summarize the Celtics and the Heat in the East. In the next one (look for it in December) we will summarize the Lakers and the Trailblazers in the West.
BOSTON CELTICS
If you are a point guard, if you want to be a point guard or if you are a true fan of championship basketball, watch every Celtics game you can because their point guard, Rajon Rondo is, along with Chris Paul, by far the best young point guard in the NBA.
If you think a point guard has to be able to score 20 or even just 15 points a game for the team to be a championship contender you are wrong and the Celtics are proof. Quite to the contrary, unless you are talking about a combo guard who knows how to correctly play both guard positions at once, the odds that a team will win the Championship goes DOWN as the points per game scored by the point guard (or the combo guard who does NOT know the correct way to play both guard positions at once) goes above 15.
So far there are two playoff level three-point shooters on the Celtics: Ray Allen and Paul Pierce; Rajon Rondo is 2 of 4 and counting. Overall, the Celtics’ shooting is extremely strong so far.
Rondo has the completely undeserved reputation as being a poor scorer. Except for his rookie year, way back in 2006-07 (my how time flies) Rondo has been an extremely smart, extremely efficient scorer. Whenever you hear someone say that Rondo is not a good scorer, make a mental note to yourself that the person saying that is dead wrong (and may therefore be a total idiot regarding basketball). The reason why Rondo doesn’t score big is simply because he can’t at the same time be the best young point guard in the League (with the possible exception of Chris Paul) and pile up a lot of points. If he tries to do both it hurts the Celtics big time because now the other Celtics don’t get the ball enough on offense. There is a huge amount of confusion regarding Rondo being a poor shooter. Almost nothing could be farther from the truth.
Defensively, led by power forward Kevin Garnett, the Celtics are fierce even without Center Kendrick Perkins, who is very roughly estimated to return after surgery in late January or in February. Rasheed Wallace is gone but who cares when the Celtics acquired not one but BOTH of those defensive stars with the same last name, “O’Neal”. Who would have thought that even the Celtics would have been able to pull off the trick of getting BOTH of the O’Neal’s on their team: Shaquille AND Jermaine? Well it’s true: they have both of them. While neither of the O’Neal’s are at Garnett or Perkins’ level and while neither of them necessarily need to start for the Celtics, even so, both of them are definitely good enough defensively to help the Celtics win the 2011 Championship. Jermaine O’Neal is currently one of the best shot blockers in the NBA and everyone knows how Shaquille O’Neal often defends the paint well simply by being there defending in the paint.
Unlike the Lakers, who so far are not defending the paint well (but it hasn’t mattered because they are offensively unstoppable so far) the Celtics are off to yet another good start as far as defending the paint is concerned. When Kendrick Perkins, who along with Garnett are two of the very best paint defenders in the NBA, comes back, the idea that the Heat can defeat the Celtics in the playoffs will probably seem even less likely than it does right now (which is already not very likely).
The one defensive problem the Celtics have to worry about is that they foul too much; whereas the Lakers achieve defensive greatness (at least when they think defending is important) with remarkably low foul counts, the Celtics require a mix of quality defending without fouling and a sometimes dangerous number of fouls to consistently achieve their high quality defense. Jermaine O’Neal is fouling way too much, and is also turning the ball over too much, but the Celtics may be able to live with that during small playing time so that they can take advantage of the rest of his defending.
Among Celtics guards, Rajon Rondo is one of the best guard defenders in the NBA, just as good as Kobe Bryant is.
On defensive rebounding the Celtics appear to be improved from recent years. Kevin Garnett is rebounding the absolute hell out of the ball, denying second chance opportunities to opponents over and over again. The other two championship caliber defensive rebounders on the Celtics this year are Shaquille O’Neal and Paul Pierce. Pierce is so far a much improved defensive rebounder, which is precisely what the Celtics need to avoid once again being tagged as a poor rebounding team in the playoffs.
Rajon Rondo is so busy being the NBA’s best young playmaker (along with Chris Paul, can’t leave Paul out or I might get sued) that he is only a superstar as far as stealing the ball is concerned rather than the number one thief in the League, but that will be enough in the steals department to help the Celtics get to the 2011 Championship. Marquis Daniels and Kevin Garnett are also great at forcing steals for the Celtics.
MIAMI HEAT
Meanwhile, on offense the Heat are trying to win with sheer scoring power. But this has never worked in the modern era so Miami is probably in for a rude awakening. I have seen two Heat games so far and I have already seen enough: the Heat are a team which will beat almost every single mediocre and losing team it plays in the regular season but will struggle and eventually be eliminated in the East Conference playoffs. QFTR is probably being too pro-Miami when we say that Miami will fall to the Celtics 4 games to 3 in the East Final. Just as likely is that the Celtics will win that series 4-2 and just as likely as that is that the Heat won’t even reach the East final but will be eliminated in the semifinal by Boston or even by Orlando or Chicago. In short, Miami is going to find out the hard way that there are only certain formulas that work in the NBA playoffs and they are not following any of those winning ones.
So far the Heat are thumbing their nose at the power point guard concept even more so than George Karl and the Nuggets do.
First of all, who exactly is the point guard of the Miami Heat? Your guess is as good as mine. There are only two point guards on the roster: Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers. Neither of them are injured, but both of them are being belittled, underrated, and ignored to one extent or another by the Heat, who will pay for this mistake dearly eventually.
Mario Chalmers is 24 years old and what little evidence there is so far (and there is very little evidence actually) suggests that he is not now and may never be a true point guard who could help win a Championship for an everyday team. But on an extraordinary team featuring Chris Bosh, LeBron James, and Dywayne Wade, even Chalmers could help win a Championship if given a full opportunity.
Having said that, Chalmers was worse in 2009-10 than in his rookie year 2008-09 and Carlos Arroyo, who is in his tenth year, would most likely make the better starter right now. Arroyo was just good enough in 2009-10 (for Miami) to be in the “solid starter” category, which is another reason that the Heat will be at fault if and when they fail in the playoffs while refusing to consider Arroyo a full scale starting point guard and while instead relying on LeBron James and Dywayne Wade to make the plays in their spare time. Arroyo has been an inconsistent playmaker during his decade long career but in his better years he was a decent true point guard, which means that Arroyo could most likely help the Heat win the Championship if given the full opportunity and the coaching to do so.
So far, though, the Heat are unwisely choosing to have LeBron James make a lot of plays and they are often playing with Dywane Wade (who years ago declared he never wanted to be a pro point guard and has no plans and little capability to be a true point guard this season) at the one, LeBron James at the two, James Jones at the three, and then they are rotating Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem at the four and they are sometimes subbing either of them at center when Joel Anthony, the starting center, goes out. Or else Zydrunas Ilgauskas comes in at center when Anthony rests.
Or sometimes they are playing Eddie House at the 2-guard and now LeBron James is a point forward. It doesn’t matter whether James is a point 2-guard or a point forward; either way the Heat are blowing it.
The Heat don’t need a superstar point guard or even a star point guard but on the other hand, if they think they can win the Championship while ignoring the point guard concept they are definitely mistaken.
But wait a second you say, the Lakers don’t have a superstar or even a star point guard and they have won three Championships in recent years, so what’s up with that? As I have said before and it bears repeating, the Lakers have a unique, highly intelligent combo guard, Kobe Bryant, who knows how to cover both of the guard positions well during the course of games and seasons. He knows when he needs to make plays and he knows when he needs to score himself. He divides his efforts up almost perfectly in particular games and for the season as a whole. Also, unlike the Heat the Lakers do have a well respected and very well coached actual point guard, Derek Fisher, who Bryant works with perfectly and who Coach Phil Jackson uses to get things done on the court, including making sure the triangle offense makes its appearance from time to time.
There are many wrong ways and only a very small number of right ways to try to win the Quest while NOT making the point guards responsible for a big majority of the playmaking and for most of the quality playmaking (while in other words NOT using the power point guard concept). The set of tools the Lakers use are one of the very, very few ways you can technically NOT use the power point guard concept and yet still win the Quest for the Ring.
Whereas Dywane Wade does not have that dependable veteran point guard side kick to go with his combo guard efforts. Nor does Dywane Wade have the dependable triangle offense (or anything comparable). Nor does Wade have a genius coach to tell him whether he needs to make more plays and score less or do the reverse (as Kobe Bryant does). In short, Dywayne Wade is trying to do what Kobe Bryant does without the critical supporting tools that Kobe needs and uses to get the job done. Unfortunately for the Heat, Wade is not a miracle worker, even though ironically and technically he is in recent years a better basketball player than is Kobe Bryant.
The thing that helped stopped the Cavaliers from winning the Championship is the same thing that as of now looks like it is going to stop the Miami Heat from winning the Championship: LeBron James making too many plays. When LeBron James makes a lot of plays in a game, he isn’t using his historical superstar scoring abilities enough in a game. LeBron James has scoring abilities that even the best point guards can only dream about. Whether James is at the same time just as good a playmaker as the actual best point guards are is irrelevant because LeBron James as a point guard makes no sense due to how much of a waste of his scoring capability it is when James makes plays. It’s asinine. No team can afford to partially waste James’ scoring talents by having him make a fairly large number of plays in a game.
The Heat, just like the Cavaliers, will get away with this error in the regular season (or actually, to be more accurate, the error will be hidden as the Heat win roughly 60 regular season games despite it) but in the playoffs the Heat will eventually fall due to this mistake in offensive organization. At a rock bottom minimum, the Heat can not defeat the Lakers if LeBron James persists in making as many plays as he does. More likely than this is that the Heat won’t even reach the NBA finals and will instead fall to the Celtics in the East Final.
The Heat do have enough three-point shooting to use that to help win playoff games. So far, LeBron James is alright, Dywayne Wade is solid, Eddie House is outstanding, and James Jones is deadly from beyond the three-point line.
However, there is some weakness in overall scoring. LeBron James would have a higher shooting percentage if he quit making as many plays (for other scorers) as he does and if instead Miami designated a real point guard as their real point guard. (Sounds so simple, doesn’t it, when you put it that way, and yet Miami is falling right into the Cavaliers’ trap by refusing to do this). Eddie House does not finish at the rim well and actually is doing better out in no man’s land (shooting threes). Udonis Haslem has always been a well below average scorer at power forward. Although a volume scorer sort of in the Carmelo Anthony mold, Chris Bosh is a relatively inefficient scorer and is off to a relatively poor start. On the bright side, 2-guard Dywayne Wade is off to a great start scoring the ball (as you would expect) and among the centers and power forwards other than Bosh, James Jones, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Joel Anthony are all off to outstanding starts scoring the ball.
It looks like the Heat are going to have to go without a lot of second chances if they are to win the 2011 Championship because they have only one superstar offensive rebounder: Ilgauskas, and his minutes are limited. Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good offensive rebounders but not good enough to allow the Heat to use a lot of second chances to win playoff games. The weakness in offensive rebounding could do in Miami in the playoffs were they not already doomed by the other factors discussed here.
Defensively so far the Heat look like they will be very tough to beat in the paint. Ilgauskas, Haslem, Anthony, and sometimes LeBron James are holding the paint defense down solidly for the Heat. Among the guards, Arroyo and Wade are good or very good defenders while Eddie House and Chalmers are probably not so good.
In defensive rebounding so far Udonis Haslem is the Heat answer for Kevin Garnett: like Garnett, Haslem is rebounding the hell out of the ball. Ilgauskas is still an extremely good rebounder. But Joel Anthony has always been a surprisingly poor rebounder and Chris Bosh so far seems to think that his heavy rebounding days are over now that he has moved from the Toronto Raptors to Miami. He will live to regret his decision to cut back on rebounding if he doesn’t change it later this season.
Joel Anthony is the only Heat defender who makes a lot of blocks. Fortunately for Miami, as mentioned previously, Ilgauskas, Haslem, and LeBron James are all good defenders despite the fact that they don’t make many actual blocks.
Eddie House and if given the opportunity Mario Chalmers can get a good number of steals for Miami. LeBron James and Dywayne Wade can get some but are not going to get a lot of them.
THE OFFSEASON HEADLINES WENT TO THE HEAT BUT THE LAKERS AND CELTICS QUIETLY SET THEMSELVES UP FOR A 2011 REMATCH
Their managers (with their owners backing them up) have once again made the Celtics and Lakers into playoff and Championship winning machines. In the face of this, can LeBron James, Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh, and the rest of the Miami Heat take on and defeat both the players AND the managers of the League’s perennial championship machines: the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers? I wouldn’t take that bet if my life depended on it. Those Lakers and Celtics managers take no prisoners when they are quietly getting those Championship caliber players, whether they be starters or whether they be veterans who used to be starters and are now very high quality backups. The best managers, and certainly the managers of the Celtics and the Lakers, one way or another, sign those well above normal players who often are a little obscure, who often are a little underrated, but who definitely have the skills and abilities most favored in the playoffs. Of course, the Celtics and Lakers managers are dealing from a position of strength. They already have many of the key skills needed to win the Quest, and they are out to merely fill a few small holes and to supplement, and back up what they already have. Meanwhile, the other managers have far more holes to fill and it is no wonder that they can’t get all of them filled in any one off season.
And then there is the Miami Heat, whose managers think that “scoring” three huge names during the 2010 off season will be enough. But if that’s all you do and you don’t understand exactly how playoff games are won (as we do here at QFTR) you are most likely not going to win the Quest regardless of how many people are fooled into thinking you are going to win it.