The Nuggets Lose at Home to a bad Team that Among Other Shortcomings Could Hardly Make Layups or Free Throws
I don’t know what’s come over me. I’ve been watching a good number of regular season games lately, including the 76’ers at Nuggets game the night of the day after Christmas.
Since I generally reveal all my secrets, let me tell you this: I like to watch the Nuggets play major losing teams in the regular season because I don’t want to miss the big enjoyment (for me) that comes out of where the Nuggets are so badly coached that they lose to a bad team. Mostly I have had the door shut in my face over the last few years while trying to observe what would be a special treat. Instead of seeing the Nuggets lose to bad teams, I have repeatedly seen the Nuggets use massive scoring power to overcome bad coaching. And as for the bad teams opposing the Nuggets, I have repeatedly seen them cheated by circumstances (often by bad calls late in games) repeatedly seen them not able to make free throws, repeatedly seen them not able to make layups, repeatedly seen them lose by just a point or two at the buzzer, repeatedly seen them not able to make quality assists, and sometimes seen them just plain stink so bad that there is no way any team could possibly lose to them.
But tonight I was for a change handsomely rewarded for my persistence in looking for Nuggets losses to bad teams. Tonight, the lowly Philadelphia 76’ers defeated the soon to be lowly Denver Nuggets 95-89. It was more fun than a basketball person should be allowed to have.
True, there was no Carmelo Anthony. And true, Al Harrington was slightly injured and played only 4 minutes. But if you are one of the best teams in the West and you are at home, you are supposed to be able to beat one of the worst teams in the East with or without Carmelo Anthony and Al Harrington. Not to mention that the Nuggets are going to face a hell of a lot more games with no Carmelo Anthony in the future if you know what I am saying, laugh out loud.
Like all major losing teams in most games, the 76’ers certainly made big efforts to lose this game. They could barely make any threes at all and they missed at least five free throws that they should have made. They missed a lot of layups and looked more or less incompetent on offense outside the paint as well. Their point guard, Jrue Holiday, looks and plays like he is 14 years old. He looked like he was up past his bedtime laugh out loud. On the other hand, at least Holiday made most of his free throws and had an excellent scoring night, which is more than can be said for the other 76’ers.
Yet the Nuggets imploded and could not beat this team that, Doug Collins notwithstanding, looks to be so far this year no better than in recent years, which is not good at all.
Let’s make some observations and break down the main reasons the Nuggets lost to a bad team:
Nene seems to only score early in games and by the fourth quarter he’s like a zombie on the offensive end, standing around near and in the paint waiting for someone to pass to a zombie, which doesn’t happen too often. Most guards instinctively avoid passing to zombies, even ones in decent scoring position. Would someone remember to wind up Nene at the half; he’s ticking down to nothing before the game is over.
George Karl failed to call time out as the Nuggets were demolished by one of the worst teams in the League in the 4th quarter in their own building, 29-18. This was a virtual carbon copy of the recent game in Denver versus the Timberwolves, where the Nuggets also imploded in the 4th as the Timberwolves outscored the Nuggets in the period 38-27. In that collapse too there were no Nuggets 4th quarter time outs to speak of. (But the Nuggets escaped with a 2-point win in that one).
Four of the most common smoking guns of an inferior offense are (1) there are too many isolation plays and not enough passing and (2) there is too much standing around and (3) The guards (especially the point guards) don’t make enough assists and (4) there are players who, despite being capable of scoring, seem to be completely out of the offensive flow and therefore they take only a fraction of the shots they should take. The Nuggets were guilty of (2) (3) and (4) in this single pathetic game!
THE JR SMITH BLACK SHEEP SAGA: THE 2010-11 CHAPTER
It was sad to see J.R. Smith unable to make threes in this game; he was a miserable and pathetic one of nine from beyond the arc. To make a long story short (reported in great detail elsewhere here) the coach of the Nuggets belittled Smith’s love of the 3-ball, made him think that shooting threes is "soft," and so he induced him to cut way back on threes even though he was at the time one of the most talented (and valuable) 3-point shooters in the NBA. Check this record:
J.R SMITH THREE POINT SHOOTING RECORD
Shown are the year, the number of threes made per 36 minutes, and the percentage of threes attempted made.
2006-07 3.6 @ .390
2007-08 4.0 @ .403
2008-09 2.9 @ .397
2009-10 2.7 @ .338
2010-11 2.3 @ .380
The first two years above were the golden years where Smith would be a major asset to a playoff team facing a very tough paint defense. In 2008-09 Smith cut back on threes (due to Karl) but he did maintain his percentage. In 2009-10 he cut back a little bit more, but the big story was that he could not make threes all that well anymore. Now so far this year Smith is no longer an enthusiastic or volume three point shooter and his percentage is up from last year but down from the golden years.
Smith’s percentage is more likely to go down in the future than back up to where it was. Folks, if you are not enthusiastically and aggressively trying to optimize a skill it is only a matter of time before you don’t have as much of that skill as you used to have when you were enthusiastic and aggressive about it. If in response to bad coaching a player becomes less enthusiastic and less aggressive about a skill then sooner or later that skill is going to fade away and no longer be an asset in playoff games.
The best coaches tell their players to try to get even better at what they are already very good or extremely good at. They don’t tell them to try to rearrange their skills and/or to change their style in pursuit of trying to be a more balanced or “well rounded” basketball player. That thinking is garbage and will never win you playoff games. You want to know the real truth? There really is no such thing as a completely well rounded basketball player. Even the very best basketball players have a few things they are not good at and will never be good at.
So here is an extremely important memo to coaches who don’t want to make the same mistake Karl did with J.R. Smith: Being able to make threes is very, very important toward winning playoff games and championships and any player, but especially a 2-guard who can shoot very close to or over 40% on threes and do so in volume (as J.R. Smith used to be able to do) is very, very valuable and should be encouraged. I mean, get this type of player to mix in some drives and some fast breaks with the threes so that the defenders won’t be coming all the way out to the 3-point line and making life miserable out there. But the last thing you should do is what George Karl did, which is to deny the importance of the three and make players who like to make a lot of threes and who are good at making them feel guilty about that.
Mathematically, making just 33% of threes is equivalent to making 50% of twos, which is roughly the standard or average make percentage for twos. Players who can make more than 38% and especially ones who can make more than 40% of threes (and who aggressively and enthusiastically make a lot of them including contested ones) are rare and should be greatly praised, encouraged, and facilitated. If you instead discourage the 3-ball you run the risk of causing the player to lose the ability to make the threes at all; J.R. Smith is living proof of this hazard.
THE NUGGETS WERE PATHETIC IN THE PAINT DEFENSIVELY
The 76’ers like almost all bad teams are a poor shooting team which means they need to drive into the paint more than would normally be wise. What was especially pathetic about this game was that although the 76’ers are such a weak scoring team that they even had a lot of trouble finishing at the rim (even though in other words they missed a lot of layups) the Nuggets were still hammered in the paint as the 76’ers scored 48 points in, as Hubie Brown calls it, “the painted area”. I mean, the 76’ers could not buy a layup and yet they still scored 48 points in the paint! They should have scored about 60 in the paint.
Surrendering any more than 40 points in the paint is not very good and giving up anything more than 45 is really bad. A fairly large majority of playoff games are won by teams who have surrendered fewer than 40 points in the paint.
The 76’ers made 17 offensive rebounds where 11 is the normal or average number. Offensive rebounds surrendered is a key indicator for who wins in the playoffs; teams with great paint defenses keep the number of offensive rebounds surrendered (made by the opponent) under ten in games. It is almost impossible to win a playoff game when your opponent makes 17 offensive rebounds.
THE JR SMITH BLACK SHEEP SAGA: THE 2010-11 CHAPTER (CONTINUED)
Arguably even more pathetic than this is the fact that J.R. Smith led the Nuggets in rebounding along with Chris Andersen; each of them made 11 rebounds. But a shooting guard should never ever lead your team in rebounding.
In a game like this we can see the total freak that George Karl is trying to turn J.R. Smith into. J.R. Smith is on the verge of becoming some kind of a freak 2-guard who specializes in rebounding instead of shooting and who drives into the paint all the time only to have trouble finishing (because that’s not his highest potential skill) whereas he used to be an extremely valuable shooter who could make threes but now he can’t make threes reliably anymore. In some games, J.R. Smith doesn’t even attempt to make threes; in those games he drives into the paint most of the time. Yet Smith is never ever going to be as good finishing drives as he used to be at making threes. I mean, he’s decent, probably above average at that, but he’s never going to be outstanding or one of the best driving 2-guards. In short, Smith has been induced to trade his best skills away in exchange for doing things that he will never be outstanding at.
The biggest mistake Smith ever made (in basketball, anyway) was to change his style in response to the coaching of George Karl. The situation is so bad that Smith, who should have been a starting 2-guard for Denver and failing that somewhere else in the League, may never start anywhere now. And there is even the possibility that Smith’s NBA career will be cut way short. Certainly, the Nuggets at this point should be motivated to try to trade him to another team and Smith should want to get the hell out of there before even more damage is done.
The Nuggets continue to pay a high and increasing price for injuries to Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen. Although both of them are back and although both of them played extensively in this game, players do not generally play at 100% very soon after coming back from long injuries. Also, the Nuggets continue to pay a high and increasing price for George Karl’s essentially permanent benching of defensive specialist Renaldo Balkman. Last year the Nuggets were able to use luck and some carryover defensively from their one of a kind, miracle 2008-09 season to escape heavy regular season damage due to refusing to play Balkman. They did, however, lose in the first round of the 2010 playoffs even with home court advantage due to not being able to defend the paint.
This year, however, things may be different. The Nuggets have slipped down yet another notch in terms of defending the paint and now this season they seem destined to pay a fairly large price even in the regular season for refusing to play Balkman and for being unable to defend the paint.
LET'S CHECK WHAT RILEY HAS TO SAY >>>
"DENVER NUGGS, YOU 
