Drowning in a River of Tears, The Denver Nuggets as of Spring 2011, Part Two

Part One of this series is located here.

A TALE OF TWO COACHES: RICK CARLISLE VERSUS GEORGE KARL
In the most recent Real Coach Ratings, the Coach of the Mavericks, Rick Carlisle, was ranked along with Denver Nuggets Coach George Karl as the worst playoffs coach among current coaches in the NBA. Prior to the 2011 playoffs Karl and Carlisle had both lost about ten playoff games that they should have won according to the Quest for the Ring (QFTR) Playoffs Series and Coaches Database. See the User Guide for Real Coach Ratings for documentation on the validity of the Database and of the Real Coach Ratings that use that database.

Due to having extensively covered George Karl and the Nuggets since late 2006, Quest for the Ring (QFTR) knows and has reported most if not all of the mistakes that Karl makes. But what specific mistakes Carlisle made while over the years losing about ten playoff games that he should have won is not yet known by QFTR. In any event, Carlisle has in 2011 stopped making at least some of the mistakes he made in prior years since at least in 2011 he has completely turned his coaching around and is now getting wins that should have been losses.

Due to time constraints we very rarely if ever do an out of season (or unscheduled) calculation so we’ll have to wait until August or September to find out the exact change, but we know already that Rick Carlisle in the 2011 playoffs has very substantially improved his Rating. After all, he defeated Phil Jackson and the Lakers four games to zero, the kind of shocking result that will lead to a big improvement in Carlisle’s rating from just that one series alone. And Carlisle is also going to get a smaller boost from doing better against the Miami Heat than baseline.

Suffice it to say for now that Rick Carlisle has moved well ahead of George Karl so that Karl is now unequivocally the worst playoffs coach currently coaching in the NBA. And the Nuggets are stuck with Karl through 2013-14 if I am correct remembering the news from a few months ago that Karl received a three-year contract extension.

With Carlisle as their coach the Mavericks have played smart both defensively and offensively in the 2011 Championship. The details and the evidence are for another Report, so you’ll have to trust me for now, and I repeat for emphasis, the Mavericks have played smart on both offense and defense. In a sense, the Mavericks have been The Quest for the Rings’ model team in the 2011 playoffs.

But given Carlisle’s dismal track record coming into the 2011 playoffs and given how the Mavericks trailed about half a dozen teams when you looked at the Real Player Ratings, we definitely did not see Carlisle’s and the Mavericks’ better than outstanding 2011 playoffs campaign coming. So this is another reminder that although overall basketball is much more predictable than football it is still fundamentally unpredictable and only a fool or a “rookie writer” will even begin to think that he or she can correctly predict playoff results in advance.

In Game five of the 2011 Championship the Dallas Mavericks made 13 threes and passed the ball around enough to defeat the Miami Heat and take a 3-2 lead in the series. Jason Terry made three of those threes.

MEANWHILE BACK AT THE COLORADO RANCH
It is hard to imagine that a George Karl coached team would ever make thirteen threes in a Championship game (or take a 3-2 lead in a Championship series for that matter). Why? Simply because Karl vastly prefers running all his players including his guards into the paint all night long for offense as opposed to running an offense much heavier on passing, floor spacing, and open jump shooting up to and definitely including shooting threes. In short, Karl is heavily biased in favor of what you might call a “Paint Offense” whereas Rick Carlisle (and many other successful playoff coaches) have most definitely not been anywhere near as insistent on (or obsessed if you prefer) with drives to the hoop. In 2011 Carlisle has been using the much more powerful and flexible “Floor Offense” instead of the Paint Offense.

With Karl preaching the Paint Offense for at least the last three seasons, the Nuggets have become the team that year after year gets to the line for free throws more than any other team. Karl is so insistent on it that heavy Nuggets free throw shooting generally carries over into the playoffs. Nuggets players are threatened with loss of playing time if they make jump shots at typical rates you find on the other teams of the League.

The other major component of the Nuggets’ offense has been the fast break, which has been a staple in Denver going back many, many years (long before Karl’s arrival). The high altitude in Denver allows the Nuggets to maximize the advantage they get from being a “running team” (or fast pace team) but more so in the regular season than in the playoffs.

Unless at least two of the guards and one of the starting guards on a team are truly among the fastest in the NBA, or unless we are talking about games played at high altitudes, fast pace teams do not get a large advantage even in the regular season. Moreover, the fast break offense pays off even less in the playoffs than it does in the regular season (since for one thing in the playoffs no team playing in a high altitude has to play on back to back nights).

But the bigger problem for the Nuggets trying to win playoff series with Karl is that the Paint Offense is doomed to be much less useful and productive in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. The reasons why have been repeatedly given before and are beyond the scope of this Report, but to summarize, you have the best paint defenses in the playoffs and you have ramped up defenses in the playoffs. (You can use any of the custom search boxes to track down previous reports on this fairly important subject.)

In summary, George Karl’s two favorite offensive themes or components are less effective in the regular season than in the playoffs and are generally ineffective in the playoffs. Put another way, Karl and the Nuggets try to twist basketball into being more like football (via the trying to get fouled all the time) and also they try to twist basketball into being more like track and field (via the fast pace). But basketball is neither football nor track and field nor anything other than basketball itself. There is plenty of room for different strategies within basketball, but if you bring in a foreign concept from outside basketball you are never going to be successful winning a lot of playoff games and series.

A TALE OF TWO SHOOTING GUARDS: JASON TERRY AND JR SMITH
For the last several years Jason Terry has been and still is the Mavericks’ best shooting guard (or 2-guard) and J.R. Smith has been and still is the Nuggets’ best shooting guard. Only you might not know that Smith is (and has been ever since he arrived on the team) the Nuggets’ best 2-guard because George Karl has refused to start J.R. Smith and has refused to give him the playing time he deserves for most of the time since Smith came on to the Nuggets.

Smith and Terry have had extremely similar Real Player Ratings over the last three seasons. (They had virtually identical ratings in 2008-09. Then Terry was very slightly better than Smith in 2009-10 but then Smith was very slightly better than Terry in 2010-11). But Smith has played for 6,300 minutes in those three years while Terry has played for about 7,600 minutes in the those years 2008-09 through 2010-11, about a fifth more than Smith.

Terry himself has received less playing time than he really deserves simply because he has started few games in those three years because Carlisle signed on to the strategy (which QFTR disagrees with) of having the best shooting guard on the team come off the bench late in the first quarter (rather than start). None other than Spurs Coach Greg Popovich, who has won the Quest several times, has used that strategy (with Manu Ginobilli not starting but instead coming in late in the first) but again, we do NOT think that is a good idea.

Meanwhile, there is no evidence that Karl subscribes to the “best 2-guard comes off the bench late in the first quarter” strategy. In other words, Karl believes (as QFTR does) that it is better to start your best player at every position including 2-guard. So when Smith has not started much for the Nuggets in all the years 2006-07 through the present it is because Karl does not agree that Smith has been the best 2-guard on the team, or else he secretly does agree but wants to punish Smith for what to Karl is Smith’s bad personality and bad playing style; see below for a little more on this subject.

Getting back to comparing our two shooting guards, J.R. Smith and Jason Terry (the one who has practically won the 2011 Quest for the Ring and may have won it as you read this) if Jason Terry really should have started and should have played for at least 9,000 minutes during the three years then you can quickly calculate that J.R. Smith has been shorted about 2,700 minutes in those three years (9,000 minus 6,300). Conservatively speaking, compared with Jason Terry, J.R. Smith has been shorted by 2,400 minutes in those years, or 800 minutes per year.

But even though Terry generally has not started he has gotten a lot of playing time, so perhaps we need more evidence to prove that Smith has been cheated beyond any shadow of a doubt (and also to get a handle on by just how much he has been shorted). If you broaden this out and look at playing time of all shooting guards sorted by Real Player Rating you find that Smith has, very conservatively speaking, been shorted an average of 400 minutes per year. (The real number is most likely at least 500 minutes per year.) Using 400 minutes, Smith has been shorted rock bottom minimum 2,000 minutes in the five years 2006-11.

In gross total, Smith has played 9,181 minutes for Denver in those five years or 1,836 minutes per year. He should have played rock bottom minimum 2,250 minutes per year during those five years or 11,250 minutes. So again, J.R. Smith has been shorted rock bottom minimum 2,000 minutes in the five years 2006-11.

To be honest, in recent years I thought that shortage was going to pile up to be even worse than it has been, but nevertheless, it’s enough of a shortage to affect Smith’s development adversely and it is enough to justify Smith getting out of Denver. Read the following carefully.

REASON ONE WHY J.R. SMITH NEEDS TO GET OUT OF DENVER
As a rule of thumb, players should try to get to other teams whenever they are shorted by 1,000 minutes or more in any two year period and especially whenever they are shorted by 2,000 minutes or more in any five year period. Whenever the cumulative shortage exceeds 1,000 minutes the player starts to substantially lose actual basketball development and also reputation around the League. These in turn easily lead to a loss of a very substantial amount of salary money in future years.

Smith’s contract with the Nuggets is now expired and so Smith is a free agent. If Smith signed a new contract to remain on the Nuggets for 2011-12, he will almost certainly be shorted another few hundred minutes and so by the end of next season he will be short more than 2,500 minutes, more than 500 minutes MORE than the 2,000 minutes that strongly justifies a player seeking to get to another team. Therefore, it is safe to say that for the playing time reason alone J.R. Smith needs to get out of Denver and get to a team that will play him for the minimum minutes he deserves.

GEORGE KARL’S MISTAKEN VIEWS ON HIS BEST SHOOTING GUARD
Why exactly does Karl short J.R. Smith playing time year after year after year? Let’s summarize briefly. As has been reported here at QFTR extensively before:

--George Karl dislikes J.R. Smith’s personality because Karl vastly overrates the impact of personality on basketball results. Regardless of how “bad” J.R. Smith’s personality is (and Karl has probably overestimated how “bad” it actually is) players with “bad” personalities can and do help win playoff games and Championships all the time, bad personality and all. In fact, if anything, in the playoffs, having a bad personality likely helps a little rather than hurts the chances of winning. At a rock bottom minimum we know here at QFTR that in general (and absent any unusual and significant adverse incidents and circumstances that might actually affect basketball production) a “bad personality” in general does NOT hurt the cause of winning playoff games and Championships.

--George Karl dislikes J.R. Smith’s playing style (which has been modified by Karl as described below) because for one thing Karl thinks that all players including 2-guards should drive into the paint and head for the hoop as often as possible whereas Smith’s classic playing style was almost exactly the opposite extreme to Karl’s strong preference: Smith came into the NBA loving to make threes and this was very, very reasonable because Smith was (and still is for the most part) extremely good at doing this.

JASON TERRY VERSUS J.R SMITH
Here you have in 2011 Jason Terry on track to win The Quest for the Ring whereas a very similar 2-guard by the name of J.R. Smith (and his agent) are trying to escape from the Nuggets and from the clutches of George Karl. The Mavericks are going to pop the champagne even if they fall short of winning the Quest (because just winning the West and winning three games in the Championship is more than enough to celebrate already). Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets’ rose colored glasses wearing fans and organization continue to delude themselves that they can still somehow recreate the miracle of 2009 when they reached the West Final only to be totally decimated on their own home court by the Lakers in their elimination game. They are still deluding themselves and still wearing those rose colored glasses even though most of their superstars are gone and even though they can not even correctly identify who their best 2-guard is and/or they can not refrain from cheating that 2-guard out of playing time and starts.

True, Jason Terry has a much more mature personality than J.R. Smith. True, the majority would agree (and perhaps a large majority) that Jason Terry has a more likable personality than J.R. Smith. But in basketball terms, J.R. Smith is essentially just as good as Jason Terry, or at least he was until he modified his playing style and became a less valuable player!

Actually, the very detailed evidence is that J.R. Smith has modified his style less than it seems, and so therefore his value as a basketball player is not as negatively affected by George Karl as had been feared. Let’s take a look at that while continuing to compare Jason Terry and J.R. Smith….

JASON TERRY VERSUS J.R. SMITH ON THREES PER 36 MINUTES
2006-07 Terry 2.0 of 4.7 > 43.8%
2007-08 Terry 1.9 of 5.1 > 37.5%
2008-09 Terry 2.4 of 6.6 > 36.6%
2009-10 Terry 1.9 of 5.3 > 36.5%
2010-11 Terry 1.8 of 4.9 > 36.2%

2006-07 Smith 3.6 of 9.3 > 39.0%
2007-08 Smith 4.0 of 9.9 > 40.3%
2008-09 Smith 2.9 of 7.3 > 39.7%
2009-10 Smith 2.7 of 8.1 > 33.8%
2010-11 Smith 2.3 of 5.8 > 39.0%

30% on threes is equivalent to 45% on twos and 45% on twos is pretty good for a guard. The majority of guards can not shoot substantially better than 30% on threes and obviously those guards should be discouraged from shooting threes until and unless they can at least exceed 30%. Most of those don’t have to be discouraged since they are smart enough to know that less than 30% on threes and especially less than 28% on threes is not good at all.

Guards who shoot more than 30% on threes should be encouraged to shoot relatively open threes rather than discouraged as George Karl believes. 33.3% on threes is equivalent to 50% on twos and 50% on twos is very outstanding for a guard. 40% on threes is equivalent to 60% on twos which is unheard of for guards. Finding a guard shooting 40% on threes is like striking gold in your back yard. The very last thing you should do if you have a guard shooting close to 40% on threes is try to get him to shoot fewer threes! George Karl did not make a small mistake, but rather a really big mistake when he forced J.R. Smith to cut back on shooting threes.

George Karl disagrees because instead of being pleased and happy with J.R. Smith’s 3-point shooting in the three years 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2008-09 during which Smith’s 3-point average was almost exactly 40%, Karl was unhappy instead of happy with Smith’s offensive decisions! I kid you not. He was in fact from all evidence very unhappy (in all three of those years including the first one, 2006-07) and spent all three years (and to a lesser extent the last two years trying (and substantially succeeding) to persuade J.R. Smith to ramp down on shooting threes! I kid you not. To be clear and for emphasis, what is clearly a good thing was regarded as a bad thing by George Karl.

Both Terry and Smith have been fully justified shooting every single three they ever shot in the last five years. The argument that Terry should have shot MORE threes than he did is very supportable whereas Karl’s argument that J.R. Smith should have shot fewer threes than he did is not supportable.

Karl disagrees because as you may already be aware, Karl believes that guards should often drive into the paint and try to get fouled. Even Karl is probably not deluded enough to believe that guards can make enough layups and dunks (against much taller forwards and centers who have ultimate paint defense responsibility) to justify a lot of driving into the paint by guards. Instead, Karl (and we think others in the Nuggets’ organization) have become obsessed in recent years with maxing out on getting fouled and getting to the free throw line and trying to win games by making a lot more free throws than the other team.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks this year could hardly care less about getting fouled. While Denver got fouled more than any other team this year (in the regular season) only six teams out of 29 were fouled LESS than the Dallas Mavericks were this year. In other words, Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks said “thanks but no thanks to the idea that getting fouled a lot is a good thing for an offense. Carlisle and the Mavericks are right whereas Karl and the Nuggets are wrong. Carlisle and the Mavericks are one game away from winning the 2011 Quest while the Nuggets are not.

MATHEMATICAL PROOF THAT GEORGE KARL AND THE NUGGETS ARE WRONG AND THAT RICK CARLISLE AND THE MAVERICKS ARE RIGHT
Relatively simple mathematics proves that Karl and the Nuggets have a poor strategy. Let’s take a guard who shoots 36% on threes as an example. (Jason Terry has been almost exactly at 36% for the last three years while J.R. Smith was substantially over 36% in 2008-09 and again in 2010-11 but slightly below 36% in 2009-10.)

The 36% on threes is mathematically equivalent to 54% on twos, which is very, very outstanding for a guard. In fact, it is pretty rare for a guard who shoots only twos to ever exceed 50% on twos.

Now along comes George Karl and the Nuggets who claim that the guard shooting 36% (or even more) on threes should cut back on threes and drive into the paint for layups, dunks, and free throws (realistically the emphasis is on the free throws). Let’s say for argument (and to be honest QFTR does NOT know exactly what the percentage is so once again we’ll use a percentage that is lopsided in favor of the Nuggets’ side of the argument) that the guard successfully gets fouled 30% of the time he drives into the paint. In basketball the overall shooting foul per shot attempt rate is LESS than 20%. Although guards driving into the lane are fouled at a substantially higher rate than the overall rate (which, again, is under 20%) the actual percentage of the time that the guard will get fouled is going to most definitely be at least a little less than 30% so when I use 30% I am giving Karl and the Nuggets’ side of the argument every possible advantage here.)

An extremely good shooting percentage on free throws is 85% and once again I am giving Karl and the Nuggets an advantage in this argument. (I am arguing with one hand tied behind my back laugh out loud.)

Now we can compare a guard playing for a playoff winning coach who fires away on threes with the George Karl guard who drives into the paint a lot more. For both guards we will equally assume that 30% of the shots taken are jumpers from outside the paint but from inside the three-point line (which is a very reasonable estimate if I do say so myself).

GUARD ONE WHO PLAYS FOR GEORGE KARL
30% of his shots are threes
30% of his shots are twos from outside the paint but from inside the 3-point line
40% of his shots are drives into the paint for layups / dunks / foul shots

GUARD TWO WHO PLAYS FOR A COACH WHO WINS PLAYOFF GAMES
50% of his shots are threes
30% of his shots are twos from outside the paint but from inside the 3-point line
20% of his shots are drives into the paint for layups / dunks / foul shots

Let’s calculate the results for 100 shots taken:

SCORING OF GUARD ONE (WHO PLAYS FOR GEORGE KARL)
FOR EACH 100 SHOTS >
--He attempts 30 threes and makes 36% of them or 11 of them for 33 points.
--He attempts 30 twos and makes 48% of them or 14 of them for 28 points.
--He attempts 40 drives into the paint and:
--He makes 10 layups, dunks or short twos (mostly layups) for 20 points; that is, he scores outright 25% of the time.
--He gets fouled on 30% of the drives which would be 40 X 30% = twelve times
--He makes 80% of the free throws from those twelve times getting fouled which would be 24 free throws X 80% = 19.2 points.
--He neither scores nor is fouled (generally against taller, bigger defenders) 18 times (40 drives minus 10 layups minus 12 times fouled = 18 times which is 45% of the drives).

Adding it all up, guard one who plays for George Karl has 33+28+20+19.2 equals 100.2 points.

SCORING OF GUARD TWO (WHO PLAYS FOR THE COACH WHO WINS PLAYOFF SERIES)
FOR EACH 100 SHOTS >
He attempts 50 threes and makes 36% of them or 18 of them for 54 points.
He attempts 30 twos and makes 48% of them or 14 of them for 28 points.
He attempts 20 drives into the paint and:
--He makes 5 layups, dunks or short twos (mostly layups) for 10 points; that is, he scores outright 25% of the time.
--He gets fouled on 30% of the drives which would be 20 X 30% = six times
--He makes 80% of the free throws from those six times getting fouled which would be 12 free throws X 80% = 9.6 points.
--He neither scores nor is fouled (generally against taller, bigger defenders) 9 times (20 drives minus 5 layups minus 6 times fouled = 9 times which is 45% of the drives).

Adding it all up, guard two who plays for the coach who wins playoff games has scored 54 + 28 +10 + 9.6 equals 101.6 points.

REASON TWO WHY J.R. SMITH NEEDS TO GET OUT OF DENVER
In conclusion, the star (or superstar) guard who shoots threes well who plays for George Karl gets 100.2 points per 100 shots taken while the very same guard who plays for a playoff winning coach gets 101.6 points per 100 shots. Every percentage assumption I made was in favor of George Karl’s side of the argument so the actual difference has to be more than what I calculated. The actual difference has to be rock bottom minimum 2 extra points for the guard who does NOT play for George Karl per 100 shot attempts. The real difference is probably in the range of 3 to 3.5 extra points per 100 shot attempts for the guard who does NOT play for George Karl. The difference is even more for guards who make more than 36% of their threes (including J.R. Smith).

That might not seem like much but it actually is enough to change the outcome of regular season and especially playoff games. It's going to be 3 to 3.5 extra points per 100 shot attempts LOST for ANY and ALL players who are great on threes but who get obsessed with driving to the hoop. Basketball teams need every seemingly little advantage they can get in order to win razor close NBA playoff games.

So therefore, we have reason number two that J.R. Smith should get out of Denver and try to find a coach who is not so hostile toward 3-point shooting in general and not so hostile to 2-guards shooting and making threes in particular.

As I have said many times before (sorry for the repetition going to any regular reader) no one is saying that J.R. Smith should not be taught that it is better to mix up his shooting and his offense overall so that defenders don’t know in advance he is going to shoot a three. No one is saying that J.R. Smith should not be discouraged from taking very hotly contested threes, or threes from well outside of the three point line. No one in his right mind would argue against those teachings.

But to teach J.R. Smith that he MUST cut way back on threes is exactly like a surgeon engaging in meatball surgery. Would you want your surgeon to be someone who wants to start removing organs left and right because you have a problem with one of your organs? No, you wouldn’t; you want the surgeon to just concentrate on the organ you have the problem with. But Karl engaged in the basketball version of meatball surgery on J.R. Smith.

EFFECTS OF GEORGE KARL ON J.R. SMITH
As mentioned elsewhere, (and admittedly I am often assuming the worst with respect to effects of George Karl laugh out loud) I was thinking that J.R. Smith’s playing time shortage was going to be even greater than it actually has been. Similarly, I was also worried that J.R. Smith might be permanently and seriously negatively affected to the extent he followed orders from George Karl. Fortunately, although we don’t know for certain what the final results will be, as of now there is relatively little evidence that Smith has been permanently or seriously negatively affected. Instead, it seems that it is more the case that Smith has been temporarily and not very seriously affected.

First let’s set the premise and remind readers of an extremely important reality. In basketball one of the keys to winning playoff games is that teams need players who specialize in and who are among the very best in one of the extremely important skills, with 3-point shooting being one of those extremely important skills. It is obvious that J.R. Smith’s 3-point shooting was so good when he started with the Nuggets in 2006-07 that he qualified to be what you could call a major asset for winning playoff games and series. So the relevant question is: when Smith followed orders from George Karl to cut back on 3-point shooting, to what extent did he lose that status of major (or key) asset for winning playoff games?

J.R. SMITH 3-POINT SHOOTING PER 36 MINUTES PLAYING TIME
2006-07 Smith 3.6 of 9.3 > 39.0%
2007-08 Smith 4.0 of 9.9 > 40.3%
2008-09 Smith 2.9 of 7.3 > 39.7%
2009-10 Smith 2.7 of 8.1 > 33.8%
2010-11 Smith 2.3 of 5.8 > 39.0%

By 2010-11 Smith had cut his 3-point shooting by more than 40% (by 42.5% to be exact) from what it was in 2007-08, a huge cutback, so to say that Smith followed Karl’s orders would be an understatement. He bent over backwards to follow Karl’s orders. But note that Smith was NOT given the starting slot despite following the orders and despite being better than the actual 2-guard starters for the Nuggets for the entire stretch of time from 2006 to the very present moment! This proves that Karl was NEVER going to allow Smith to start regardless of whether he followed orders or not.

Another observation that immediately jumps off the page is that J.R. Smith has made threes at almost a 40% rate for four of the last five years which makes him one of the very best 3-point shooting guards in the NBA which is, again, like finding gold in your back yard.

QFTR was worried that Smith’s 3-point shooting percentage would go down if he bent backwards to follow orders from George Karl. So far, the evidence shows that we were both correct and incorrect to be worried about that. In 2009-10 his 3-point percentage plummeted to 33.8%, still good enough to be good for a guard but far lower than Smith’s demonstrated level from other years. But just when we thought that doomsday had arrived Smith turned the decline around and made 39.0% of threes in 2010-11. This is a fascinating story and seems to indicate that if a player follows bad advice from a coach:

--In the short run there will be negative effects on both the team and on the player
--In the longer run there will be negative effects on the team but not much negative effect on the player.

Of course, we will have to find out in future years what happens. When J.R. Smith gets to a new team to what extent will he increase his 3-point shooting? And what will J.R Smith’s 3-point shooting percentage be on his new team(s) in future years. (I really doubt Smith is going to remain on the Nuggets for 2011-12 given how much he has been cheated by Karl.)

A TALE OF FOUR SHOOTING GUARDS
Check this out, a comparison over the latest three years of three players: J.R. Smith, Jason Terry of the Mavericks, and whoever was the primary starting 2-guard (instead of Smith) for the Nuggets. Dahntay Jones started instead of Smith in 2008-09 and Aaron Afflalo started instead of Smith in 2009-10 and in 2010-11.

2008-09 J.R. Smith Nuggets Real Player Rating .824; Playing Minutes: 2,245
2008-09 Dahntay Jones Nuggets Real Player Rating .445; Playing Minutes: 1,426
2008-09 Jason Terry Mavericks Real Player Rating .827 Playing Minutes: 2,491

2009-10 J.R. Smith Nuggets Real Player Rating .738; Playing Minutes: 2,076
2009-10 Aaron Afflalo Nuggets Real Player Rating .573; Playing Minutes: 2,230
2009-10 Jason Terry Mavericks Real Player Rating .791; Playing Minutes: 2,540

2010-11 J.R. Smith Nuggets Real Player Rating .828; Playing Minutes: 1,968
2010-11 Aaron Afflalo Nuggets Real Player Rating .711; Playing Minutes: 2,324
2010-11 Jason Terry Mavericks Real Player Rating .793; Playing Minutes: 2,564

Some important observations should be made.

Looking at the 2008-09 playing minutes, you can see that the fact that J.R. Smith was better than Dahntay Jones was clear even to George Karl. When Jones started over Smith in 2008-09 it was because Karl had promised himself that he would probably NEVER start Smith regardless of whether Smith followed orders or not and regardless of how much better Smith was than the next 2-guard.

As of now, for two years running (which is an eternity in basketball) J.R. Smith has been better than the two guard given the starting slot AND more playing time by George Karl! You would have to say that the playing time is the injury and the starting slot is the insult. J.R. Smith has received BOTH the injury and the insult for BOTH of the last two years. And there is zero reason to think this would not continue were Smith foolish enough to remain on the Nuggets in 2011-12.

Speaking of insult added to injury; consider that although George Karl’s Aaron Afflalo was much better in 2010-11 than he was in 2009-10, so was J.R. Smith, which allowed Smith to remain comfortably ahead of Afflalo. This only goes to prove I guess that George Karl can’t win even when things break his way.

Another important observation is that in the three years overall, J.R. Smith has been almost exactly as good as Jason Terry. But you can once again see how Jason Terry gets substantially more playing time than Smith despite the fact that Terry does not start on account of that funny strategy (which QFTR disagrees with). As for most recently, ironically, J.R. Smith was BETTER than Jason Terry this year! You know the year, the one where Terry is just about to win The Quest for the Ring as we speak! J.R. Smith was better than THAT Jason Terry in THAT year.

AS OF RIGHT THIS MOMENT
The Dallas Mavericks just buried the Miami Heat with threes in game five of the 2011 NBA Championship; they made 13 of 19 threes! And they were mostly threes made by guards, not forwards and centers! If Nuggets guards tried this (if they so much as attempted a lot of threes) on a George Karl team they would be in a whole heap of trouble. If they made those threes as the Mavs guards did they might be in less trouble, but its impossible for guards to make that many threes when 3-point shooting by guards is discouraged throughout the regular season as it is by Karl.

Jason Terry made 3 out of 5 of them. The other guard named Jason, point guard Jason Kidd, made 3 out of 5 of them. Jose Juan Barea, the much younger point guard, made 4 out of 5 threes. DeShawn Stevenson, the 2-guard who generally starts over Terry (due to that funny strategy) made 1 of 2 of them. Dallas three star guards made 10 of 15 threes and their four guards in total made 11 of 17 threes. And now the Miami Heat are practically eliminated in the 2011 Championship! Laugh out loud, George Karl; Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks have just made you look like an idiot!

To round out the historical record, historical superstar power forward Dirk Nowitzki made 1 of 1 threes in the game and reserve power forward Brian Cardinal made 1 of 1 of them. So the Mavericks forwards were not completely shut out of the long ball competition, laugh out loud.

Meanwhile, J.R. Smith, his agent, and probably a few NBA managers are trying to figure out a way to get Smith out of Denver and to a team that knows what it is doing on offense in general and with 2-guards in particular. I for one and going to be very ticked off if Smith can not escape Denver this year, all the more so considering that Carmelo Anthony successfully made his great escape a few months ago. Again, for emphasis: J.R. Smith, you need to get out of Denver as soon as possible.

And now the theme song for both this series and for the Denver Nuggets as a whole. First we have the lyrics and then the song.

RIVER OF TEARS LYRICS
Singer: Eric Clapton

It's three miles to the river
That would carry me away,
And two miles to the dusty street
That I saw you on today.

It's four miles to my lonely room
Where I will hide my face,
And about half a mile to the downtown bar
That I ran from in disgrace.

Lord, how long have I got to keep on running,
Seven hours, seven days or seven years?
All I know is, since you've been gone
I feel like I'm drowning in a river,

Drowning in a river of tears.
Drowning in a river.
Feel like I'm drowning,
Drowning in a river.

In three more days, I'll leave this town
And disappear without a trace.
A year from now, maybe settle down
Where no one knows my face.

I wish that I could hold you
One more time to ease the pain,
But my time's run out and I got to go,
Got to run away again.

Still I catch myself thinking,
One day I'll find my way back here.
You'll save me from drowning,
Drowning in a river,
Drowning in a river of tears.
Drowning in a river.
Feels like I'm drowning,
Drowning in the river.
Lord, how long must this go on?

Drowning in a river,
Drowning in a river of tears.

DENVER NUGGETS THEME SONG
ERIC CLAPTON: DROWNING IN A RIVER OF TEARS
ALBUM VERSION


DENVER NUGGETS THEME SONG
ERIC CLAPTON: DROWNING IN A RIVER OF TEARS
LIVE JAPAN CONCERT VERSION