NBA Defenses Broken Down: Which Teams are Defensively Qualified and Which ones are Defensively Disqualified from Winning the 2012 Quest for the Ring?
This is an extremely important Report and is the first ever of its type. It is a shame how long it took for Quest for the Ring (QFTR) to finally produce it. It is a bigger shame that so far as we know no one has ever published an article or report that breaks down the defending of NBA teams as thoroughly and accurately as this one does.
For information about how and why this Report and others of its' type that will follow replaces the suspended Real Team Ratings (RTR) system, see this Report.
Unfortunately, the statistics in is Report were largely done as of the end of February, but it could not be published until March 19. So the bad news is that the defensive ratings shown below are a little outdated. The good news is that the rankings of the teams have probably not changed very much from the end of February until March 18. The other good news is that now that this type of Report has been formatted, QFTR will be able to efficiently produce another one in April just before the playoffs.
THE FOUR KEY DEFENSIVE MEASURES
In this Report QFTR rates and ranks the 30 NBA teams in the following four key defensive measures. This Report breaks down NBA defenses by zone on the Court.
(1) Overall Defensive Efficiency
This is the number of points surrendered (to opponents) per 100 possessions by opponents
(2) Paint Defending
This is the number of points surrendered per game from shots made from in the paint.
(3) Mid-Range Defending
This is the number of points surrendered per game from shots made from outside the paint but from inside the 3-point line.
(4) Perimeter Defending also known as 3-point shot defending
This is the number of points surrendered per game from shots made from outside the 3-point line.
Note that (2) (3) and (4) do NOT exactly add up to (1) overall defensive efficiency as you might possibly think. This is because defensive efficiency is per 100 possessions whereas the other three items are per game. In other words, (1) is “pace adjusted” while (2) (3) and (4) are not pace adjusted.
(2) (3) and (4) add up to total points surrendered per game which is (ironic though it may seem) not included in this report because total points per game is inferior to everything we are looking at here. Total points per game is too broad to be of much value for determining who can and who can not win playoff series.
That one of our elements (defensive efficiency) is pace adjusted while the other three are not pace adjusted is an advantage rather than a disadvantage or any kind of a problem. Using both a pace adjusted element and several elements not pace adjusted gives us two views on the defending of the teams, both of which are relevant and valuable. The pace adjusted defensive efficiency focuses on the overall and the true defensive quality right down to and including the quality of man to man defending, defensive reaction, and hustle. Since fast paced teams allow their opponents more possessions and since they almost always allow more points, you don’t want to use straight up points per game to evaluate quality of defending.
The other three elements that are not pace adjusted focus on the different defending involved in different zones on the court. Since the pace of fast pace teams lead to more possessions for BOTH the fast pace team itself and for its opponents, fast pace teams always give up more points per game than slow paced teams do regardless of how "high quality" their defending is. So therefore, it is appropriate and valuable to look at the defending of teams unadjusted for pace. We almost always avoid per game statistics when it comes to players but in this case, for team defending we WANT to bring in per game numbers.
In summary, the best thing to do when looking at team defending is to look at the defending from BOTH the pace adjusted perspective AND from the not pace adjusted perspective, which is exactly what we do.
These four are the most important defensive measures in existence and ever created and calculated for use if the objective is to determine who can win playoff series and who can't, which of course is exactly what the objective is.
SAY HELLO TO THAT NEW DEFENSIVE MEASURE: MID-RANGE DEFENDING
Mid-Range defending is a new defensive concept and measure created and calculated for the first time ever right here by QFTR. You have never seen it anywhere because QFTR just created it. And yes, it is a little surprising that it has never appeared anywhere until now.
Mid-range defending can easily be calculated using information on the Internet as:
Total points per game surrendered
Minus
Points in the paint per game surrendered
Minus
3-point shot points per game surrendered.
HOW THE DEFENSIVE MEASURES RANK IN IMPORTANCE
Remember, Overall Defensive Efficiency is by a fairly large margin the most important one of the four and, as explained above, is only roughly a summary of the other three. If someone was in a hurry he or she could just look at defensive efficiency and usually correctly determine which teams defensively qualify to be in contention to win the Quest. However, there is a possibility that the person in a hurry could end up being wrong. A team might be very strong on one of the three "very important" defensive measures but very week on another one, and if it was the wrong combination, it might mean that the team was actually disqualified from winning the Quest even though the overall defensive efficiency looked good. Or vice versa, the overall defensive efficiency might look bad but if you looked at the breakdown for the three very important components you might find out that the team actually was strong enough defensively to qualify to win the Quest.
So number (1) above is the most important. Which of the other three components (2) (3) or (4) is the next most important for winning playoff games and series? The answer is clear and has been reported here at QFTR for roughly two years. Paint Defending (2) is the next most important of the other three. The paint is the zone on the court that can be most effectively defended within the rules of basketball both in the regular season and in the playoffs. When defending is ramped up in the playoffs, the paint is the zone on the court where the ramping up will have the biggest effect. In other words, the payoff for ramped up defending is greater in the paint than it is in the other zones. Top paint defending teams can sometimes almost “lock down the paint” which means they can reduce paint scoring to an extremely low amount.
Of the other two, as you might suspect, Mid-Range Defending (3) is the next most important, and so Perimeter Defending (4) is the least important. By zone, as you move in toward the basket, the payoff for defending (and for ramped up defending) increases.
The importance gap between Mid-Range Defending (3) and Perimeter Defending (4) is smaller than the gap between Paint Defending (2) and Mid-Range Defending (3). And that gap between (3) and (4) is much smaller than the importance gap between Defensive Efficiency (1) and Paint Defending (2). In other words, perimeter defending is almost as important as mid-range defending for winning playoff games and series.
Additional detail about these crucial and interesting subjects is beyond the scope of this formatted statistical Report and may be available if and when a User Guide is produced for this type of Report and / or it will be available in future QFTR Reports about defending.
TEAMS RATED AND RANKED ON OVERALL DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
--Overall Defensive efficiency is points surrendered per 100 possessions of opponents.
--Overall Defensive efficiency is pace adjusted which allows for the best possible view of the real quality of defending with the pace disadvantage removed.
--Overall defensive efficiency includes the important fundamentals of man to man defending, defensive recognition, defensive rotation, and defensive hustle.
--Overall Defensive efficiency is the most important single team defensive measure in existence.
--All ratings that follow are for the 2011-12 season as of February 27 2012. QFTR expects to be able to update the ratings in April so that we can check on the defenses just before the playoffs get underway.
--The format is always rank / team / defensive efficiency
1 Philadelphia 97.0
2 Chicago 97.7
3 Dallas 98.3
4 Boston 99.1
5 New York 99.6
6 Portland 99.6
7 Miami 100.0
8 Atlanta 100.1
9 Memphis 100.5
10 Indiana 100.6
11 Orlando 100.9
12 Los Angeles Lakers 101.0
13 Minnesota 101.9
14 Oklahoma City 102.1
15 Houston 103.3
16 San Antonio 103.3
17 Toronto 104.0
18 Denver 104.7
19 New Orleans 104.8
20 Milwaukee 105.0
21 Los Angeles Clippers 105.0
22 Phoenix 105.2
23 Cleveland 105.3
24 Utah 106.3
25 Washington 107.4
26 Detroit 107.5
27 Golden State 108.3
28 Sacramento 108.8
29 Charlotte 110.0
30 New Jersey 111.5
QUALIFICATIONS AND DISQUALIFICATIONS BASED ON DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Note: in the following discussion, just as defensive efficiency is points surrendered per 100 possessions, offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 possessions.
Defensive efficiency is so important that teams low ranked in it (in the regular season) are in almost all cases disqualified from winning the Quest. Teams ranked between #19 and #30 have very close to a zero percent chance of winning The Quest for the Ring unless they improve defensively. In other words, the bottom 40% of teams in defensive efficiency are disqualified.
Teams ranked #16, #17 and #18 (San Antonio, Toronto and Denver) would have to offset a relatively low defensive rating with the best or the second best offense in the NBA this year and / or they have to improve defensively. If neither is the case they join the bottom twelve teams as disqualified. None of these teams have the best or the second best offense in the NBA as of late February so realistically, all three of these teams were disqualified as of late February.
Teams ranked #13, #14 and #15 (Minnesota, Oklahoma and Houston) would have to offset a mediocre defensive rating with one of the top four offenses in the League and / or they have to improve defensively to have a chance of winning The Quest for the Ring. If neither is the case then they are disqualified from The Quest for the Ring for this year.
As of February 27 Oklahoma had one of the top four offenses so it was not disqualified. Minnesota and Houston were disqualified as of late February.
Teams ranked from #7 to #12 have better than average defenses and are fully qualified to win The Quest for the Ring. However, these defenses are probably not good enough for these teams to be able to try to win The Quest for the Ring more with defense than offense. They will need to use both offense and defense equally or else offense more than defense to win the Quest.
Teams ranked from #1 to #6 have the best defenses in the League and are of course fully qualified to win The Quest for the Ring. These defenses are good enough for these teams to be able to try to win The Quest for the Ring more with defense than with offense if they choose to do that.
SUMMARY: TEAMS DISQUALIFIED DUE TO POOR DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY LISTED ALPHABETICALLY
Charlotte
Cleveland
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Golden State
Los Angeles Clippers
Milwaukee
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Orleans
Phoenix
Sacramento
San Antonio
Toronto
Utah
Washington
PAINT DEFENDING
As stated above, paint defending is the most important of the three per game measures that add up to total points surrendered per game. Paint defending is points surrendered in the paint and it exists on the Internet only as a per game measure. In fact, it is extremely difficult to find on the Internet at all even though game announcers often tell you about it during games.
Per game measures are very often inferior because they are not adjusted for pace but in this case the flaw does not exist because fast pace teams are at a disadvantage defensively and we do NOT want to always try to hide that fact by always adjusting team defensive performance numbers for pace. Adjusting for pace when looking at players makes far more sense because players are mostly not responsible for the paces run by their teams.
TEAMS RATED AND RANKED ON PAINT DEFENDING
--Paint defending is number of points surrendered per game due to shots made by opponents from within the paint.
--Paint defending is not pace adjusted, which allows for the best possible view of paint defending because it is somewhat harder for fast pace teams to defend the paint and you do not want to always hide that fact by always pace adjusting the paint defending numbers.
--Paint defending is the second most important single team defensive measure in existence.
--All ratings that follow are for the 2011-12 season as of February 27 2012.
--The format is always Rank / Team / Points Surrendered in the Paint (per game)
1 Orlando 35.9
2 Toronto 36.4
3 Dallas 36.5
4 Miami 37.0
5 Philadelphia 37.5
6 Los Angeles Lakers 37.6
7 New York 38.6
8 Memphis 38.6
9 Indiana 38.7
10 Detroit 38.8
11 Chicago 38.8
12 New Orleans 39.2
13 Boston 39.2
14 LA Clippers 39.7
15 Milwaukee 39.9
16 Portland 40.1
17 Phoenix 40.2
18 San Antonio 40.3
19 Denver 40.6
20 Cleveland 40.8
21 Atlanta 41.1
22 Minnesota 41.2
23 Golden State 41.2
24 Oklahoma 42.2
25 Utah 42.3
26 Washington 42.4
27 New Jersey 43.4
28 Houston 45.9
29 Charlotte 47.4
30 Sacramento 48.0
EVALUATION OF PAINT DEFENDING RATINGS AND RANKINGS
Remember, as discussed earlier, among the three types of defending described by zones on the court, paint defending is the most important for winning playoff games. The other two, mid-range and perimeter defending, are less important. It is very possible for a team to be mediocre at mid-range and perimeter defending but to use great paint defending and a great offense to reach and possibly win the Championship.
What about the reverse; what about teams mediocre to relatively poor in paint defending? Although teams relatively low ranked in paint defending (say, #13 to #20 out of 30 teams) are in trouble and although they start out “in the hole,” they can offset this by being one of the top six to eight teams in the League offensively, and / or they can offset this by being among the best half dozen or so teams in mid-range defending and in perimeter defending. To put it another way, a team mediocre or slightly below average in paint defending can possibly still be in the top twelve in overall defensive efficiency and they can also be among the top six to eight teams offensively and, if so, they can still be in the running to win The Quest for the Ring.
That last paragraph covers teams ranked #13 to #20 in paint defending. What about teams ranked #21 to #30 in paint defending? Is there any hope for them or are they disqualified from winning the Quest for the Ring? Generally and almost all of the time, the answer is yes, they are disqualified. The worst ten teams in paint defending (the ones ranked #21 to #30) have too much to offset, so except in very rare cases they will be disqualified. It is theoretically possible for a team ranked #21 or even #22 in paint defending to be qualified but it would have to be the best or the second best team offensively and it would have to be among the top eight or so in both mid-range and in perimeter defending and it would have to be among the top 12 in defensive efficiency despite being only #21 or #22 in paint defending.
So at the low end, the worst dozen or so teams in paint defending are generally but not always disqualified from winning The Quest for the Ring. It turns out that neither good nor even mediocre paint defending is an absolute must have requirement for winning The Quest for the Ring. The “alternate route” is rocky and hardly recommended, but a team with a poor paint defense can possibly win The Quest for the Ring if it has a relatively high defensive efficiency despite poor paint defending AND it has a high offensive efficiency. The defensive efficiency will be held down by the poor paint defending but it is possible for a team to have a decent defensive efficiency even though it has pretty bad paint defending. Obviously, it needs to be very good to outstanding in mid-range and in perimeter defending to offset the poor paint defending.
Defensive efficiency is a much more powerful and important indicator than is paint defending. But paint defending is nevertheless very important because for one thing, the teams in the Conference Finals and in the Championship are often going to be highly and relatively closely ranked in offensive and defensive efficiency. Paint defending will then often decide hard fought series between two closely matched and high quality teams.
I say again for clarity and emphasis, the primary indicators that determine whether teams are real contenders to win The Quest for the Ring are defensive (and offensive) efficiency. Paint defending is the most important among the secondary defensive measures / indicators. Then, mid-range and perimeter defending are a little less important than paint defending but they are still important enough that they can be used to offset poor paint defending so as to produce a relatively high defensive efficiency.
But the easier route to defensive dominance is to start with strong paint defending and then worry about the mid-range and the perimeter defending after ensuring that the paint defending is strong.
Taking into account everything just stated, there were no NBA teams disqualified defensively as of the end of February due to poor paint defending that were not already disqualified due to poor defensive efficiency.
Oklahoma is below average in both defensive efficiency and in paint defending. But it is not disqualified from winning the Quest in 2012 because it has one of the very best offenses and because it has good perimeter defending. But Oklahoma will have a tough time winning the Quest due to poor defensive efficiency in general and due to poor paint defending in particular. All of the other teams with the best regular season records have significantly better defenses.
TEAMS RATED AND RANKED ON MID-RANGE DEFENDING
--Mid-Range defending is the number of points surrendered per game due to shots made by opponents from outside the paint but from inside the 3-point line.
--Mid-Range defending is not pace adjusted, which allows for the best possible view of mid-range defending because it is somewhat harder for fast pace teams to defend the mid-range and you do not want to always hide that fact by pace adjusting the mid-range defending numbers.
--Mid-Range defending is the third most important single team defensive measure in existence.
--All ratings that follow are for the 2011-12 season as of February 27 2012.
--The format is always rank / Team / Points Surrendered in the Mid Range (per game)
1 Atlanta 31.8
2 Miami 33.0
3 Memphis 33.1
4 Houston 34.1
5 Dallas 34.2
6 Indiana 34.5
7 LA Lakers 34.5
8 Charlotte 34.6
9 Boston 34.8
10 Philadelphia 34.8
11 Sacramento 35.2
12 Chicago 35.6
13 Los Angeles Clippers 35.7
14 New Orleans 35.8
15 New York 35.8
16 Minnesota 36.0
17 Portland 36.1
18 Denver 36.2
19 New Jersey 36.2
20 Oklahoma 36.4
21 Milwaukee 36.5
22 Orlando 36.5
23 San Antonio 36.9
24 Phoenix 37.5
25 Cleveland 37.5
26 Utah 37.5
27 Toronto 37.9
28 Golden State 38.0
29 Washington 38.4
30 Detroit 38.8
QUALIFICATIONS AND DISQUALIFICATIONS BASED ON MID-RANGE DEFENDING
It will be unusual for any team not already disqualified due to poor defensive efficiency and / or due to poor paint defending to be disqualified due to very poor mid-range defending. But a team marginally qualified defensively judging from defensive efficiency and paint defending would very often slip down to disqualified if it was one of the worst eight or nine teams in mid-range defending. What could easily happen in this case is that the opponent will exploit the bad mid-range defending (with good jump shooting and passing and screening) in order to win the playoff series.
Taking into account everything stated in this Report up to now, there were no NBA teams disqualified defensively as of the end of February due to poor mid-range defending that were not already disqualified due to poor defensive efficiency and / or due to poor paint defending.
Orlando is pretty bad at mid-range defending. But this is offset by the fact that Orlando is a pretty good offensive team and by the fact that Orlando is one of the very best paint defending teams. Also, Orlando is fairly good at perimeter (3-point shot) defending.
TEAMS RATED AND RANKED ON PERIMETER DEFENDING
--Perimeter defending, also known as 3-point shot defending, is the number of points surrendered per game due to shots made by opponents from outside the 3-point line. (Shots made from this far out are worth 3 points.)
--Perimeter defending is not pace adjusted, which allows for the best possible view of perimeter defending because it is somewhat harder for fast pace teams to defend the perimeter and you do not want to hide that fact by pace adjusting the perimeter defending numbers.
--Perimeter Defending is the fourth most important single team defensive measure in existence, but it is very close in importance to the third most important, mid-range defending.
--All ratings that follow are for the 2011-12 season as of February 27 2012.
--The format is always rank / Team / Points Surrendered on the Perimeter (per game)
1 Chicago 13.5
2 Boston 14.5
3 Philadelphia 15.2
4 Houston 15.9
5 Portland 16.9
6 Oklahoma 17.6
7 Utah 17.9
8 New Orleans 18.2
9 Detroit 18.3
10 Minnesota 18.4
11 Orlando 18.4
12 San Antonio 18.4
13 Atlanta 18.7
14 Charlotte 18.8
15 Sacramento 18.9
16 Cleveland 19.0
17 Indiana 19.3
18 LA Lakers 19.3
19 Phoenix 19.4
20 New Jersey 19.7
21 New York 19.7
22 Los Angeles Clippers 19.9
23 Toronto 20.0
24 Washington 20.0
25 Dallas 20.1
26 Milwaukee 20.4
27 Memphis 20.5
28 Golden State 21.5
29 Miami 24.4
30 Denver 24.5
QUALIFICATIONS AND DISQUALIFICATIONS BASED ON PERIMETER DEFENDING
It will be rare for any team not already disqualified due to defensive efficiency and / or due to paint defending and / or due to mid-range defending to be disqualified due to poor perimeter defending. But a team barely qualified defensively after those three defensive factors are considered could easily and probably would slip down to disqualified if it was one of the worst eight or nine teams in perimeter defending. What could easily happen in this case is that the opponent will exploit the bad perimeter defending (with good 3-point shooting) in order to win the playoff series.
Taking into account everything stated in this Report up to now, there were no NBA teams disqualified defensively as of the end of February due to poor perimeter defending that were not already disqualified due to poor defensive efficiency and / or due to poor paint defending and /or due to poor mid-range defending.
Miami is extremely poor at defending the 3-point shot. But it is not outright disqualified from winning The Quest for the Ring because Miami is one of the two or three best offensive teams in the League. Also, Miami is the fourth best paint defending team and the second best mid-range defending team as of the end of February. Although not disqualified, Miami is going to have trouble trying to win the Quest while being as poor as it is at defending the 3-point shot.
Now we are ready for the bottom line:
SUMMARY ALPHABETIC LISTING OF TEAMS DISQUALIFIED FROM WINNING THE 2012 QUEST FOR THE RING DUE TO POOR DEFENDING AS OF THE END OF FEBRUARY
Charlotte
Cleveland
Denver
Detroit
Golden State
Houston
Los Angeles Clippers
Milwaukee
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Orleans
Phoenix
Utah
Washington
Sacramento
San Antonio
Toronto
17 teams are disqualified and so 13 teams are defensively qualified to win the Quest. Here are the thirteen that are qualified shown in order of best to worst defensive efficiency:
SUMMARY LISTING OF TEAMS DEFENSIVELY QUALIFIED TO WIN THE 2012 QUEST FOR THE RING AS OF THE END OF FEBRUARY 2012 SHOWN IN ORDER FROM BEST TO WORST DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Philadelphia
Chicago
Miami
Boston
Dallas
Memphis
Atlanta
New York Knicks
Indiana
Los Angeles Lakers
Orlando
Oklahoma
Portland
Of these defensively qualified thirteen teams, here is how they rank offensively as of mid March:
Oklahoma
Miami
Chicago
Portland
Orlando
Philadelphia
Los Angeles Lakers
Indiana
Atlanta
New York
Dallas
Memphis
Boston
The teams near the top of both of these lists are the ones most likely to win the Quest this year. There are two near the very top in both defense and offense: the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat. The Philadelphia 76'ers should probably also be considered to be near the top both defensively and offensively.