Teams and Coaches That Disqualified Themselves from The Quest for the Ring Due to an Insanely Fast Pace
In the most recent Quest for the Ring (QFTR) Report, which ranks among the most important Reports ever, we finally published proof that the fastest NBA teams almost certainly can not possibly win The Quest for the Ring. It may not be quite literally impossible but it is close to impossible for one of the fastest 10% of teams (the fastest three teams in 2012 and in all recent years) to win the Quest.
For years QFTR has strongly suggested that to be the case and it was really nice to finally have the time and the opportunity to publish hard proof. Specifically, as that Report shows, only one single team among the fastest 10% of teams has ever even appeared in a Championship, and not a single one of the fastest teams has ever won a Championship. (That one single team that appeared in but lost a Championship was just barely among the fastest 10%.)
In this Report we will go back in history and show you which teams and coaches disqualified themselves from winning the Quest from 2002-03 through and including 2010-11 by having an insanely fast pace, specifically by being among the fastest 10% of teams. And, we will see the three teams that as of February 10 are in the process of disqualifying themselves here in 2012.
As you might expect, geeks / nerds / academics have not come up with exactly the same formulas to determine pace. Although the formulas are sometimes very different algebraically, they seem to produce pace numbers that are extremely similar. QFTR has better things to do then figure out which of the competing formulas is the best one (or to use our own and have to calculate all of the historical numbers using ours). So what we do in this Report (and what we will do for 2012 and going forward is declare that a team disqualified itself from reaching or winning The Quest for the Ring due to being too fast paced if it is among the fastest 10% of teams in BOTH the ESPN historical record AND in the Basketball-Reference historical record. Basketball-Reference is the most comprehensive basketball data bank on the Internet and is generally very well regarded whereas, as you probably know, ESPN is the largest sports media Site and corporation. If you can’t trust those Sites, you can’t trust any basketball Site for reliable basketball information.
In all years shown here the fastest three teams were the fastest 10%. Rounding is used; for example, when there were 29 teams in the League, the fastest 10% of teams were the fastest three teams. Since we rely on two sources that slightly differ, and given the two sources must agree rule described in the previous paragraph, it's possible for there to be one or more years where there will be fewer than three teams shown as disqualified. As of now there is one year where only two teams are shown as disqualified: 2003-2004
NBA TEAMS AND COACHES THAT DISQUALIFIED THEMSELVES FROM WINNING THE QUEST DUE TO BEING TOO FAST PACED, 2003-2011
For each year the teams and the coaches that by running an extremely fast pace killed any chance they otherwise had to win the Quest are shown.
2002-2003
Cleveland Cavaliers, John Lucas and Keith Smart
Sacramento Kings, Rick Adelman
Golden State Warriors, Eric Musselman
2003-2004
Boston Celtics, Jim O’Brien and John Carroll
Denver Nuggets, Jeff Bzdelic
2004-2005
Philadelphia 76’ers, Jim O’Brien
Orlando Magic, Johnny Davis and Chris Jent
Phoenix Suns, Mike D’Antoni
2005-2006
Phoenix Suns, Mike D’Antoni
Denver Nuggets, George Karl
Charlotte Bobcats, Bernie Bickerstaff
2006-2007
Golden State Warriors, Don Nelson
Denver Nuggets, George Karl
Phoenix Suns, Mike D’Antoni
2007-2008
Denver Nuggets, George Karl
Golden State Warriors, Don Nelson
Indiana Pacers, Jim O’Brien
2008-2009
Golden State Warriors, Don Nelson
New York Knicks, Mike D’Antoni
Indiana Pacers, Jim O’Brien
2009-2010
Golden State Warriors, Don Nelson
Indiana Pacers, Jim O’Brien
Minnesota Timberwolves, Kurt Rambis
2010-2011
Minnesota Timberwolves, Kurt Rambis
New York Knicks, Mike D’Antoni
Denver Nuggets, George Karl
2011-2012 to date (Feb. 10); this may change before the end of the season.
Denver Nuggets, George Karl
Minnesota Timberwolves, Rick Adelman
New York Knicks, Mike D’Antoni
A FEW OBSERVATIONS ABOUT A FEW OF THESE COACHES
There are any number of very interesting and important observations you could make about this list. Making a lot of detailed observations about every single coach is way beyond the scope of this Report. Since QFTR has roots with the Denver Nuggets, we’ll comment especially about that team.
As you can see, New York Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni has been among the primary offenders of the "speed limit" for teams. We will refrain in this Report from going into details regarding D'Antoni's obsession with insanely fast pace. We did that about nine months ago in Reports regarding the Carmelo Anthony trade. And D'Antoni's pace obsession is a subject which should be and will be covered in detail in one or more future Reports. Suffice it to say here that D'Antoni appears to be a total nut case when it comes to fast pace.
Don Nelson was more or less obsessed with extremely fast pace during his 31-year super long head coaching career and he never once appeared in a Championship series. Do you think there is some connection between those facts? I certainly do.
When all is said and done, George Karl's pace, playoffs and, for that matter, overall career record will end up being very similar to Don Nelson's. Karl did appear in the 1996 NBA Championship as Coach of the Seattle Supersonics. And even more obnoxiously, the Supersonics (if you round a little) were among the fastest 10% of teams in that year. In fact, they were the only exception to the rule; they were the one and only team out of 64 teams from 1980 through 2011 that were among the fastest 10% of teams yet they made it into the Championship. However, the Supersonics were trounced in that Championship by Phil Jackson, Michael Jordan, and the Chicago Bulls.
THE DENVER NUGGETS, GEORGE KARL, PACE, AND PLAYOFFS
In general the Denver Nuggets have a long history of being an extremely fast pace team. By running an extremely fast pace, the Nuggets can win more extra regular season games then most teams can by being extremely fast. In other words the Nuggets always get a bigger regular season payoff for being extremely fast pace. Why? Because in the high altitude of Denver there is less oxygen in the air, and so teams have even more trouble defending (and preventing in the first place) fast breaks and in transition fast scoring opportunities then they do in ordinary altitudes. But in the playoffs, teams buckle down, get tougher, get more energetic, and get smarter, which enables them to do much better in contesting all of Denver’s fast breaking and in transition power plays, even when they play in Denver.
So far in 2011-12, the Nuggets are the very fastest team in the NBA. It is extremely unlikely that they will not be among the fastest three teams when the season is complete in April. So for the rest of this Report we will assume that the Nuggets finish among the fastest 10% of teams (among the fastest three teams) in 2011-12.
George Karl has been the coach of the Denver Nuggets for entire seasons starting in 2005-06. Amazingly, from that year through and including this season (which is seven seasons) the Nuggets have been among the fastest 10% of teams in five of those seven years! So the Nuggets have disqualified themselves from winning the Quest in five of the seven George Karl years by running a pace that is so fast that it turns into a big disadvantage in the playoffs. Specifically, Karl and the Nuggets disqualified themselves in the following playoffs years: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, and 2012.
They came close to disqualifying themselves in 2009 and in 2010. In two of the Karl Nuggets years the Nuggets were not among the very fastest 10% but were close. In 2008-09 the Nuggets were the 5th or 6th fastest team (ESPN and basketball-reference respectively). Whether they were 5th or 6th fastest, either way they were among the 2nd fastest 10% of teams in 2008-09. In 2009-10 the Nuggets were the 5th fastest team in the NBA, which is among the 2nd fastest 10% of teams.
In every single one of the George Karl Nuggets years, the Nuggets have been among the fastest 20% of teams.
Here is the fascinating year by year breakdown:
PACE AND PLAYOFF RESULTS OF THE DENVER NUGGETS UNDER GEORGE KARL
2005-06: Among the fastest 10%, lost in the first round
2006-07: Among the fastest 10%, lost in the first round
2007-08: Among the fastest 10%, lost in the first round
2008-09: Among the second fastest 10%, lost in the third round (the West finals)
2009-10: Among the second fastest 10%, lost in the first round
2010-11: Among the fastest 10%, lost in the first round
2011-12: Among the fastest 10%, playoffs coming
I’ll give you one guess what the playoffs result is likely to be in 2011-12; you only need one guess to most likely be right, laugh out loud.
To be absolutely clear and for emphasis, due to the insanely fast pace which becomes a big disadvantage in the playoffs, there was never any chance that the Nuggets could win the Quest in any of the George Karl years other than 2008-09 and 2009-10. And even in those two years the Nuggets were very close to disqualifying themselves. At the very least, the pace they ran in those two years, which was among the second fastest 10%, left them at a big disadvantage for the playoffs.
Here’s where things get even more interesting. Note that the one and only year where George Karl was not a failure in the playoffs was in 2008-09, when the Nuggets won not one but two playoff series. Note however that the Nuggets ended up in May 2009 being humiliated on their own home court by the Lakers in the West Conference Final. But this history is extremely interesting, isn’t it. In one of the only two years that they did NOT play at an insane pace, the Nuggets actually won two playoff series. But in all four of the totally insane pace years (2006, 2007, 2008, and 2011) Karl and the Nuggets were bounced very quickly in round one.
If the Nuggets get bounced in round one here in 2012 (which is quite likely if I do say so myself, but unfortunately I am not allowed to officially predict such things, laugh out loud) then it will preserve a perfect record of failure. That is, if the Nuggets lose in round one in 2012, then every single one of the five years when George Karl and the Nuggets were among the fastest three teams in the League they will have lost in round one, regardless of whether they had home court advantage and regardless of whether the general public thought they would win! Very interesting, isn’t it.
My friends, you are a moron if you operate a basketball team among the fastest 10% of teams in the NBA or in any other League.
Now in all of the Karl years the Nuggets have had more than the average number of above average players. In some of those years they had far more than the average number of above average players. Obviously the specific roster has changed over the years, but the overall quality of that roster has been quite consistent: the Nuggets have been very good player quality wise (although never among the top 10% with the possible exception of 2006-07 and 2007-08. If you look at Real Player Ratings published here at QFTR, you can see proof of how consistently good the Nuggets roster has been for years beginning in 2006-07 right on through to the present.
When you combine all of the information presented in this Report together, you logically and realistically reach the conclusion that there is a strong probability that Karl and the Nuggets blew their chances to win many other playoff series, and possibly a Championship, in the 2005-2012 period, due at least in part to their insanely fast pace. But Karl made other huge mistakes, as QFTR has reported over the years.
The real bottom line here is that, whether intentional or not, this whole Kroenke (the Nuggets owner) / George Karl / Denver Nuggets obsession with extremely fast pace is essentially a scam (or conspiracy if you prefer) played on the naive (or ignorant if you prefer) general public. Year after year, the Nuggets use an above average roster and an insanely fast pace to appear to be a much better team than they are, to win a few extra regular season games, and to get a pretty good playoff starting slot. But then in all of these years the fooling ends and the Nuggets get quickly bounced in round one because of this reality and because of this fact that no one is going to change unless the rules of the game changes: Teams that are among the fastest 10% of teams are excessively fast paced and will pay a big penalty in the playoffs for that.
RICK ADELMAN AND THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES IN 2012
It was surprising to see that Coach Adelman has the Timberwolves operating among the fastest 10% of teams here in 2012. I am watching this team during this season and I honestly did not realize they were this fast. (Maybe watching the Nuggets over the past several years has fooled me into thinking that the extremely fast pace is normal; maybe to balance out I need to go watch a lot of slow Pistons games laugh out loud.)
I’m only going to mildly criticize Adelman for doing it because for one thing, everyone knows the Timberwolves can not possibly go from being one of the worst teams in the League in 2010-11 to winning The Quest for the Ring in 2011-12 regardless of what pace they run at and regardless of how wonderful Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio are. And like any other team operating at an extremely fast pace, the Timberwolves can win a few extra regular season games by doing so. Winning a few extra regular season games will have the effect of increasing the Timberwolves’ confidence that they have left their days as one of the absolute worst teams in the League behind. Winning a few extra games this year will increase the Wolves' resolve that next season will be even better than this one. And who knows, maybe in 2012-13 the Timberwolves actually will have a theoretical chance to win the Quest. For a team like the Timberwolves emerging from the cellar of the League, these things are much more important than exactly what their 2012 draft pick might be.
For rebuilding teams that in the current year have no chance to win The Quest for the Ring, operating at an extremely fast team is not as big a blunder as it is for contenders. But even among non-contenders, an extremely fast pace is appropriate if and only if the team is custom designed to benefit from that. (But please, no fastest 10% ever!) See this very recent and extremely important Report about pace for details on what constitutes a team custom built for fast pace.
COACHES RESPONSIBLE FOR BEING AMONG THE FASTEST 10% SHOULD BE FIRED
In a perfect world highly paid coaches of pro NBA teams would know enough to not make the bonehead mistake of operating as one of the fastest 10% of teams in the League. In a perfect world coaches pushing their teams to be among the fastest 10% of teams in the League would be fired regardless of regular season record. In other words, those coaches would be fired for leaving their team unable to win playoff series against quality teams (regardless of how wonderful the regular season was). In a perfect world, coaches trying to preserve their careers with deceptive regular season wins resulting from an extremely fast pace would be fired, not worshipped and rewarded.
Many of the coaches shown above were actually fired at one time or another (or forced to retire) but most likely none of them were fired DIRECTLY for operating at an insanely fast pace.
IN A MINORITY OF CASES THE COACH MAY NOT BE TO BLAME
In a minority of cases, coaches of the fastest teams may be almost blameless. A coach would be blameless if the managers and/or the owner of the team more or less forced the coach to operate the team at an extremely fast pace. Managers and especially owners have the authority to force the coach to operate at a very fast pace. The whole thing could possibly be a conspiracy run by the managers and / or the owner(s) to win extra regular season games and fool the public into thinking that the team can win playoff series while playing at the extremely fast pace. Keep in mind that an extremely fast pace features a lot of dunks from fast breaks which are proven major crowd pleasers. So therefore, an extremely fast pace usually fills arena seats and usually increases game broadcast ratings, which in turn helps to put more money in the owners’ pocket.
Another possible way that the coach would not be 100% to blame for disqualifying his team would be if the coach had a team that was custom designed for an extremely fast pace (see the previous Report for details) and he simply went a little overboard. Coaches need to avoid being among the fastest 10% of teams at all costs but if they do have a team custom made for a fast pace, it is acceptable but still not recommended that they could be among the second fastest 10% of teams. The QFTR recommendation is that teams custom made for fast pace operate among the third fastest 10% of teams. Obviously, since teams and coaches do not necessarily have all the performance measurement resources that for example QFTR has (yes it’s really true, QFTR has more resources at it’s disposal than the teams do!) a coach could think that his team was operating as a very fast team but not among the fastest 10%, when in fact it was operating among the fastest 10%. So in unusual cases involving teams custom made for fast pace, the mistake might be an innocent one.
So coaches shown in this Report might possibly have excuses for disqualifying their teams from winning playoff series. But a big majority of coaches shown above would not have any good excuse for disqualifying their teams from having a chance to win The Quest for the Ring.
SUMMARY OF THE BIGGER PICTURE
Always remember, coaches who insist their teams be one of the fastest 10% of teams pick up a few extra regular season wins by doing this, which sometimes (if the owner values regular season wins as much or more than he values playoff wins) helps the careers of those coaches. Such owners in effect allow such coaches to sacrifice the team’s playoff chances so that the public can be fooled into thinking the playoff prospects are good and also so that the coach can have a supposedly great career. But of course, this whole thing is actually a scam played against the general public (and also the players until and unless they sort of figure all of this out by themselves, as Carmelo Anthony recently did). Finally and more broadly, coaches who for whatever reason win a lot in the regular season but have bad playoff records are not really and truly good coaches (regardless of how much the fooled general public worships those coaches).