The Aftermath of the 2011 Carmelo Anthony Trade, Part One: Who Won the Trade and by how Much?

First some editorial notes that explain to you the context for what you are looking at and direct you to additional resources. To skip past this information skip past everything in italics.

Since I am trying hard to keep Reports wherever possible under 2,400 words (which is already roughly three times as long as the short essays on basketball you often see on the Internet). But major Reports can not possibly be kept under 2,400 words and will sometimes be as long as 5,000 words. Part Two in the present series is about 4,500 words and Part Three will probably be at least 3,000 words.

But let me step back for a second; what exactly is a “Report Series”? It’s a series which has a mega or major theme where the individual Reports in it have important individual sub themes that when combined together cover the major theme. Years ago (before we realized it was crazy, laugh out loud) QFTR reserved the right to post 8,000 or 10,000 words in one Report if a mega or major theme was being covered. Today we identify the most important sub themes in a mega theme, post separate Reports for each of the important sub themes, and tie them all together by using the same phrase for the first part of all the titles in the series but then by using different last parts and different part numbers for the titles of the different parts. Onward, editorial progress!

But we don’t even today chop content up just to follow an arbitrary word limit. QFTR can not promise that all Reports will be under 3,000 words or under any other arbitrary limit. Any Report including ones that are parts of mega theme series will be as long as necessary to cover and prove all of the important things in the theme. With some Reports you can chop them up without losing explanation power, so to speak, but with some of them if you chop them up the two standing separately are much weaker compared to if the material is combined into one Report. Part Two of this series, which is more than 4,500 words, is a good example; we considered chopping it in two and then wisely refused to do it.

This Report on the Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade is divided into three parts:

PART ONE: "The Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade Part One: Who Won the Trade and by How Much?"

PART TWO: "The Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade Part Two: What the Knicks Need to do Next to Become Real Contenders"

PART THREE: "The Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade Part Three: Why Did Carmelo Anthony Insist on Leaving Denver?"

I am especially looking forward to producing Part Three. Although no one knows exactly except for Anthony himself and possibly a few close associates, Quest for the Ring (QFTR) is highly qualified to explain the most likely reasons.

There will also within a month or two months at the most be this one:

"What Owners, Managers, and Coaches Should do to Keep Their Superstars"

We are debating whether to make this last one Part Four of the “Aftermath” series; we probably will have it stand on its own instead.

In another future Report (which may or may not be a part of the "Aftermath" series) QFTR will Report on the state of the Nuggets following the Carmelo Anthony trade and following any other trades they might make before the trade deadline (which is on Thursday, February 24).

As a final note, please realize that Parts One and Two were originally joined together (before we realized and corrected the “mistake”). For roughly 36 hours they were posted while combined. When they were separated, both parts were reviewed, improved, and extended. Anyone who read the original combined version might want to start over to get the advantage of the improvements and the additions. But if you did read the original version, you did get the gist of what we are reporting.

Now let’s get to Part One of this series…

DID THE KNICKS OVERPAY FOR CARMELO ANTHONY?
It was reported on the Internet (where there are all kinds of garbage reports to be honest) that many Knicks fans think that the Knicks overpaid for Carmelo Anthony. Assuming that is really true (which it probably isn't if all Knicks fans were surveyed) let's dispel that false belief first off.

Most definitely, the Knicks did not overpay for what they got in the trade from Denver (and from Minnesota). The worst possible interpretation from a Knicks point of view is that the Knicks neither gained nor lost from the trade. But that most pessimistic and cynical possible viewpoint is based on the assumption that the Knicks’ objective is set on low rather than on high. That is, if the Knicks’ objective is to just quietly win 40 or 50 games year in and year out and never win 55 or 60 and actually be a real contender to win the Quest then you could possibly argue that the Knicks-Nuggets trade is a wash for the Knicks. In order to do so you must believe that Chauncey Billups will be too old to be of much value very soon, within months.

I would argue that the Knicks got the better deal even assuming the Knicks just want to quietly and conservatively win 40-50 games a year and never be real contenders, but I would not laugh someone out of the room if they argued that the trade was a wash if the Knicks have no interest in really trying to win the Quest.

On the other hand, those who claim that the Knicks overpaid in the trade are most definitely completely wrong regardless of whether their objective is for the Knicks to win 40-50 games every year (and then lose in the first round) or whether their objective is for the Knicks to be serious contenders. The Nuggets may not be one of the better managed teams in the NBA, and they are not despite the fact they had really good managers in recent years who were, however, fired. But the owner of the Nuggets, Stanley Kroenke, is very, very rich from business dealings, which means at the least that he is not a complete fool, and there was no way that he was going to be left “holding the bag”, ending up with nothing at all for Carmelo Anthony. As they say in the hood, Kroenke was never going to “go down like that”. While Kroenke clearly lost out in the trade, which was inevitable given all of Kroenke's previous mistakes, the loss could have been worse and would have been a total catastrophe if the Nuggets had gotten nothing for Anthony.

For more information about Kroenke and for specifics about the Nuggets in the current year, see especially the three-part series called How and why the Nuggets are on the Brink of Disaster. You can also browse the Report title lists or do a search using any of the Google custom search boxes scattered around the home page.

Looking at who the Knicks gave up, Danilo Gallinari is at best a very slightly above average small forward which means overall he is a below average player. Wilson Chandler, who is another small forward, is only a little better than Gallinari and is at best a solid and a slightly above average player overall. Timofey Mozgov is practically worthless on offense and has only partially proven himself defensively so far; players like him are often and correctly called “projects”.

The Knicks biggest give up was Point Guard Raymond Felton, who judged by point guard standards is at least a very good solid starter, and the odds are he will be a star point guard in the NBA (if given the opportunity) in the next few years. But as of now it does not look like Felton is ever going to be a superstar. Felton is as of right now the sort of player who is good enough to be a lot of help in winning some first round playoff games but who is not quite good enough to be a major factor in a Conference Final or in a Championship series.

D’Antoni is one of the best point guard coaches in existence and Felton really was helped by D’Antoni. Now, however, Felton falls under the control of one of the worst point guard coaches in existence: George Karl. Knowing him, Karl’s first act will be to (secretly) decide that Felton will never start over Ty Lawson regardless of whether Felton is better at point guard than Lawson or not. Ty Lawson has a personality to die for, laugh out loud.

Aside from these four players, Felton, Chandler, Gallinari, and Mozgov, the Knicks gave up 3 million dollars which is essentially a token amount of money. And they gave up two second round draft picks which are little more than two more tokens. And they gave up their 2014 first round pick, which under Knicks’ plans to be a major winning team in that year won’t be very much more valuable than an early 2nd round pick.

Only early to at best mid first round picks are truly valuable; late first round and all second round picks most often end up being only a little more valuable down the road compared to just picking up players off waivers. In general, trying to get players who have fled to Europe or China is probably even more valuable. But at the same time remember that teams who respect and who know how to coach young players have a lot more success with later draft picks than the teams that discriminate against and/or that don’t know how to coach young players.

In exchange for Felton, Chandler, Gallinari, and Mozgov, the Knicks obtained from Denver Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Reynaldo Balkman, and Sheldon Williams. The Knicks also obtained Corey Brewer from Minnesota.

Carmelo Anthony is a superstar and possibly an historical superstar as long as he doesn’t let his defending lapse which he will automatically do unless coached correctly. When he is a poor defender, Carmelo Anthony is merely a star player overall, although by small forward standards he is a superstar even while playing lousy defensively. This May Anthony is 27 years old which is absolute prime age for pro basketball: the Knicks get Carmelo Anthony for what should be his absolute best years.

Chauncey Billups is a superstar player but (1) He would be better and possibly an historical superstar if he would make more plays and fewer shots and (2) by point guard standards he is not only not a superstar but only barely a star (the next category down from star is “very good player / solid starter”). And (3) Billups will be 35 years old this September which means that his career is over within about the next three years.

Reynaldo Balkman is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He’s young and has been extensively cheated out of playing time so far. In Part Two of this series Balkman is extensively discussed.

Shelden Williams, 27 years old, is a defensive specialist who will produce little on offense although like any player will produce more on offense if he is part of a good offense that is slightly organized, as QFTR likes to say. He is not the best defensive specialist you will ever see but certainly not the most lame either. While the best defensive specialists rebound well AND defend well, the ordinary everyday ones usually are limited to just doing one or the other. Williams is much more of a very good rebounder than a very good defender per se. His foul rate is at the high end and his block rate is on the low end.

Corey Brewer is 25 years old and is currently an average 2-guard but will probably get better.

So in conclusion, whether or not you want to be in the running to win the Quest by obtaining superstars (which is mandatory) the Knicks definitely did not overpay for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Reynaldo Balkman, Sheldon Williams, and Corey Brewer. Balkman and Williams are actually slightly better than Gallinari and Chandler. All things considered, Felton is more valuable than Chauncey Billups when you factor in age but not as valuable as Carmelo Anthony (and that’s probably an understatement). Plus as a bonus so to speak the Knicks picked up a decent young 2-guard, Corey Brewer.

By the way, as a general rule of thumb, a big majority of trades over the years have been won in basketball terms by the team that has given up draft picks and/or money. This one was no exception; the Knicks gave up three draft picks and $3 million, which signals correctly that the Knicks won the trade in basketball terms.

The Knicks “won the trade” by a moderate amount. Despite the fact that there are dumb franchises and managers around, it is relatively rare to “make a killing” in a trade. In the real world, teams only rarely will win a trade by more than the Knicks won this one. Money doesn't grow on trees and good things very seldom if ever come on silver platters.

THE RISK INVOLVED WHEN YOU SERIOUSLY TRY TO WIN THE QUEST
Unfortunately, there is a risk you take when you seriously try to win the Quest, although I personally think the risk should be ignored. You have to risk becoming a team that can’t even win 40 games in order to create the possibility that you could win 55 or 60 or more and then win The Quest for the Ring. I say “unfortunately there is a risk” to signal that I am a risk-averse type of guy and also to signal that I wish basketball (and the rest of the world) was perfect rather than imperfect. I wish it wasn’t true that teams risk becoming major losing teams (within a few years, not immediately) when they go all out to try to win it all, but there is some risk of that.

While I know that the risk of becoming one of the worst teams goes up for teams that go all out to try to get the superstars and other pieces they need to be serious contenders, risk does not automatically mean that it will happen. Only a subset of the teams that go all out to try to win the Quest but never win it suffer the penalty of becoming one of the worst teams. Many teams that make valid attempts to win the Quest by getting the superstars that gets their foot in the door, but fail to win it, merely drop back to being 35 or 45 win teams, which is almost exactly where they might be had they never tried to win it all.

If there are very smart managers, coaches, and owners involved, the risk is much lower

But if your objective is to create the possibility that the Knicks could be a real contender assuming they did one or more additional key transactions and made one or more management and/or coaching changes then the Knicks underpaid for Carmelo Anthony. Without any superstars it is essentially impossible to win the Quest for the Ring even if you have the smartest and best Coach and even if you have solid starters (who are not, however, superstars) and even if you have the best non-starters in the entire NBA. You could probably have everything you could possibly wish for but still never win the Quest without at least two superstars or rock bottom minimum one major historical superstar.