The Denver Nuggets and The New York Knicks After the Carmelo Anthony Trade
Quest for the Ring (QFTR) interrupts regularly scheduled activities to report on the big trade involving the Denver Nuggets and the New York Knicks. I am doing so not because I am just another naive person who is obsessed with trades (most of which never happen and even when a trade finally happens it virtually never guarantees a Championship). No, instead of being in that rut I am doing this because I have been specializing in the Nuggets in general and in Carmelo Anthony in particular for years and I need the information in this Report for my own purposes.
By the way, that I am definitely NOT like seemingly everyone else obsessed with trades is proven once and for all by the fact that I never once over the last several months speculated about what the Carmelo Anthony trade would end up looking like during all the months that many other basketball writers and commenters were speculating morning, noon, and night about that ultimately unimportant topic.
Always remember, if you are obsessed with speculating about trades, most of which never happen:
--You won't be able to satisfy your obsession at QFTR because we almost never speculate about trades.
--Most of your time spent doing this is wasted time.
QFTR just reported out yesterday what the New York Knicks' Real Player Ratings (RPRs) were just before the trade. About ten days ago QFTR posted the latest RPRs for the Denver Nuggets for 2010-11. Now in this Report we'll look at how the teams look following the trade. The format is the same as for an ordinary RPR Report, except that I have added in the player positions so you and I can instantly see which positions New York and Denver are now weak and strong in.
After this, QFTR will produce a text Report on the trade. In that Report I will attempt to but the odds are I will only partially succeed in keeping my gloating and my "told you so's" to a minimum.
In this soon to come text Report we'll review what is known about why Carmelo Anthony demanded a trade, we'll take a close look at both the Knicks and the Nuggets post trade (making extensive use of the information in this Report) and we'll explain why the Knicks will almost certainly never win a Championship unless they get a new Coach AND unless either Amare Stoudemire or Carmelo Anthony play better defense (preferably both of them).
So let's proceed right now with the Real Player Rating breakdowns for the Knicks and then for the Nuggets following the trade:
NEW YORK KNICKS REAL PLAYER RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
as of February 22, 2011
Congratulations and respect are due to CARMELO ANTHONY who leads the Knicks in quality basketball so far in 2010-11.
Congratulations and respect are due to AMARE STOUDEMIRE who has produced more than any other player on the Knicks so far in 2010-11.
KEY PLAYERS--ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE NBA
MAJOR HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None
HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None
SUPER STARS
CARMELO ANTHONY (SF)
AMARE STOUDEMIRE (PF)
STARS--WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTERS
Chauncey Billups (PG)
Toney Douglas (PG)
Ronny Turiaf (C)
VERY GOOD PLAYERS--SOLID STARTERS
None
MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS--GOOD ENOUGH TO START
Landry Fields (SG)
Bill Walker (SF)
AVAILABLE PLAYERS
KEY (ABOVE AVERAGE) PLAYERS DEFINITELY NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PLAYOFFS
None at this time.
TOTAL NUMBER OF ABOVE AVERAGE PLAYERS AVAILABLE AS OF NOW FOR THE PLAYOFFS: 7
BEST BY SIDE OF COURT
BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Chauncey Billups (PG)
BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Ronny Turiaf (C)
NEW YORK KNICKS REAL PLAYER RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Atlanta Hawks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated
--After the ratings the positions are shown. PG means point guard, SG means shooting guard, SF means small forward, PF means power forward, and C means center.
Carmelo Anthony 0.964 SF
Amare Stoudemire 0.951 PF
Chauncey Billups 0.881 PG
Toney Douglas 0.854 PG
Ronny Turiaf 0.846 C
Landry Fields 0.732 SG
Bill Walker 0.722 SF
Shelden Williams 0.698 PF
Shawne Williams 0.637 SF
Corey Brewer 0.617 SG
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399
CHECK HOW GOOD THE KNICKS ARE POSITION BY POSITION
When both the ratings and positions are shown in one place as they are above, you can pretty easily see where the team is strong and where it is not. But you need one other thing to be able to know exactly how good or bad a team is at a position: you need to know what the average rating is for the position. The following will give you that information.
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
HOW TO EVALUATE TEAMS AT POSITIONS
1. Find what the average rating is for that position (see just above).
2. Go back to the ratings (above) and look for the players at that position.
3. See where those players rate in comparison with the average rating for the position.
4. Also, compare two or more teams position by position. In this Report, you can easily compare the Knicks and the Nuggets.
Looking at the bigger and all-important picture, a big majority of teams have at least one player at least a little above average at each position. The very best teams have at least one player above average at every single position, plus they feature players way above the position averages at two or three positions.
PLAYOFF GRADE PLAYERS
Playoff Grade Players have ratings of .560 and higher. Players with ratings below .560 should not play in the playoffs unless the team is forced to play them so that they have two players at a position and/or so that the team has at least eight players playing in the playoffs and/or because the coach is absolutely certain the low rating player will play better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. The greatest Championship teams will generally not have any players with a rating below .600 playing.
NEW YORK KNICKS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Atlanta Hawks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real basketball production of players
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown
Amare Stoudemire 1854.24
Carmelo Anthony 1457.13
Chauncey Billups 1292.87
Landry Fields 1287.84
Toney Douglas 1012.20
Corey Brewer 743.41
Ronny Turiaf 674.37
Shelden Williams 494.26
Shawne Williams 409.55
Bill Walker 369.52
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ===============
NEW YORK KNICKS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Atlanta Hawks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' offense
Chauncey Billups 0.596 PG
Amare Stoudemire 0.592 PF
Carmelo Anthony 0.538 SF
Toney Douglas 0.423 PG
Ronny Turiaf 0.375 C
Landry Fields 0.360 SG
Shawne Williams 0.336 SF
Bill Walker 0.294 SF
Shelden Williams 0.264 PF
Corey Brewer 0.254 SG
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
NEW YORK KNICKS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Atlanta Hawks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' defending
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated
Ronny Turiaf 0.471 C
Shelden Williams 0.434 PF
Toney Douglas 0.431 PG
Bill Walker 0.428 SF
Carmelo Anthony 0.426 SF
Landry Fields 0.372 SG
Corey Brewer 0.363 SG
Amare Stoudemire 0.359 PF
Shawne Williams 0.301 SF
Chauncey Billups 0.284 PG
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
=======================================
DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
as of February 22, 2011
Congratulations and respect are due to NENE who leads the Nuggets in quality basketball so far in 2010-11.
Congratulations and respect are due to RAYMOND FELTON who has produced more than any other player on the Nuggets so far in 2010-11.
KEY PLAYERS--ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE NBA
MAJOR HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None
HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None
SUPER STARS
NENE (C)
STARS--WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTERS
Raymond Felton (PG)
VERY GOOD PLAYERS--SOLID STARTERS
Kenyon Martin (PF)
Wilson Chandler (SF)
MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS--GOOD ENOUGH TO START
Chris Andersen (C)
J.R. Smith (SG)
Ty Lawson (PG)
AVAILABLE PLAYERS
KEY (ABOVE AVERAGE) PLAYERS DEFINITELY NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PLAYOFFS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ABOVE AVERAGE PLAYERS AVAILABLE AS OF NOW FOR THE PLAYOFFS: 7
BEST BY SIDE OF COURT
BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Raymond Felton (PG)
BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Chris Andersen (C)
DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Milwaukee Bucks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated
Nene Hilario 0.980 C
Raymond Felton 0.868 PG
Kenyon Martin 0.800 PF
Wilson Chandler 0.760 SF
Chris Andersen 0.759 C
J.R. Smith 0.758 SG
Ty Lawson 0.701 PG
Arron Afflalo 0.674 SG
Danilo Gallinari 0.659 SF
Al Harrington 0.629 PF
Timofey Mozgov 0.538 C
Gary Forbes 0.448 SF
Melvin Ely 0.440 C
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A well above normal starter 0.820 0.899
Very Good Player / A solid starter 0.760 0.819
Major Role Player / Good enough to start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a good 6th man, can possibly start 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player / Generally should not start 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player / Should not start except in an emergency 0.520 0.579
Poor Player / Should never start 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399
AVERAGE RATINGS BY POSITION
Not all positions are created equal. In pro basketball, point guard and center are the most important positions, power forward is in the middle, and small forward and shooting guard are the least important. (Some teams will have a different pattern.) The following are good estimates for average ratings by position among all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more. There are very few small forwards and shooting guards who don't fit at other positions who are superstars. Most superstars are players who can play point guard, power forward, or center.
Point Guard .750
Shooting Guard .635
Small Forward .645
Power Forward .715
Center .755
All Positions / All Players (NBA Overall Average) .700
CHECK HOW GOOD THE NUGGETS ARE POSITION BY POSITION
When both the ratings and positions are shown in one place as they are above, you can pretty easily see where the team is strong and where it is not. But you need one other thing to be able to know exactly how good or bad a team is at a position: you need to know what the average rating is for the position. The following will give you that information.
HOW TO EVALUATE TEAMS AT POSITIONS
1. Find what the average rating is for that position (see just above).
2. Go back to the ratings (above) and look for the players at that position.
3. See where those players rate in comparison with the average rating for the position.
4. Also, compare two or more teams position by position. In this Report, you can easily compare the Knicks and the Nuggets.
Looking at the bigger and all-important picture, a big majority of teams have at least one player at least a little above average at each position. The very best teams have at least one player above average at every single position, plus they feature players way above the position averages at two or three positions.
PLAYOFF GRADE PLAYERS
Playoff Grade Players have ratings of .560 and higher. Players with ratings below .560 should not play in the playoffs unless the team is forced to play them so that they have two players at a position and/or so that the team has at least eight players playing in the playoffs and/or because the coach is absolutely certain the low rating player will play better in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. The greatest Championship teams will generally not have any players with a rating below .600 playing.
DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Milwaukee Bucks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real basketball production of players
--An estimate of the value of hidden defending production is included in the total production for all players shown
Raymond Felton 1800.85
Nene Hilario 1353.95
Wilson Chandler 1336.01
Arron Afflalo 1186.79
Danilo Gallinari 1100.63
J.R. Smith 872.88
Ty Lawson 816.26
Al Harrington 708.06
Kenyon Martin 317.69
Timofey Mozgov 246.53
Chris Andersen 245.88
Gary Forbes 225.28
Melvin Ely 150.16
=============== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ===============
DENVER NUGGETS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Milwaukee Bucks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' offense
Raymond Felton 0.638 PG
Ty Lawson 0.584 PG
Nene Hilario 0.559 C
Danilo Gallinari 0.445 SF
Wilson Chandler 0.435 SF
Arron Afflalo 0.430 SG
J.R. Smith 0.418 SG
Al Harrington 0.363 PF
Kenyon Martin 0.336 PF
Gary Forbes 0.329 SF
Timofey Mozgov 0.215 C
Melvin Ely 0.214 C
Chris Andersen 0.202 C
THE AVERAGE OFFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .385
DENVER NUGGETS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS AFTER THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE
--As of February 22, 2011 (includes all games through the Feb. 16 game against the Milwaukee Bucks)
--All players who have played 300 minutes or more are included
--Shows the real quality of players' defending
--The hidden defending adjustment, which is necessary for a full evaluation of defense, is included for all players rated
Chris Andersen 0.557 C
Kenyon Martin 0.464 PF
Nene Hilario 0.421 C
J.R. Smith 0.340 SG
Wilson Chandler 0.324 SF
Timofey Mozgov 0.323 C
Al Harrington 0.265 PF
Arron Afflalo 0.244 SG
Raymond Felton 0.230 PG
Melvin Ely 0.227 C
Danilo Gallinari 0.214 SF
Gary Forbes 0.119 SF
Ty Lawson 0.118 PG
THE AVERAGE DEFENSIVE SUB RATING
for all NBA players who play 300 minutes or more is about .315
The breakdown between hidden and unhidden defending is available on request.
THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide. The User Guide for Real Player Ratings is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the Real Player Rating performance measures.
Also, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
ABOUT TEAM REAL PLAYER RATING REPORTS
During the regular season beginning in late January (when we can first calculate the hidden defending adjustments) Quest for the Ring (QFTR) posts Team Real Player Ratings for major contending teams and other selected teams as time permits. At the end of the regular season and before the Conference Finals begin, we post the final ratings for the four teams in those finals. The final ratings for those final four teams can then be used in team grids that are very important parts of any playoff series preview.
After the playoffs are over QFTR has enough time to produce and publish a final Real Player Ratings Report for all thirty NBA teams. These annual records of who was really the best and who really did what are scheduled to be posted in late June and in early July. They are posted in alphabetic order by team starting with the Atlanta Hawks and ending with the Washington Wizards.
The User Guide for Real Player Ratings was last revised and updated in May 2010; a new revision is "on order" and is expected to be completed between February 20 and March 15, 2011. The current User Guide is still very useful; the only section of it that is not completely accurate is the one where the specific factors are shown; the factors have been adjusted a little to reflect the latest information and understanding QFTR has about exactly how playoff games are won. There has also been a significant improvement in the calibration and validation of Real Player Ratings components. There are links to the current User Guide at the bottom of this Report.