The Aftermath of the 2011 Carmelo Anthony Trade, Part Two: What the Knicks Need to do Next to Become Real Contenders

First some editorial notes that explain to you the context for what you are looking at and direct you to additional resources. To skip past this information skip past everything in italics

This Report on the Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade is divided into three parts:

PART ONE: The Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade Part One: Who Won the Trade and by How Much?

PART TWO: The Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade Part Two: What the Knicks Need to do Next to Become Real Contenders

PART THREE: The Aftermath of the Carmelo Anthony Trade Part Three: Why Did Carmelo Anthony Insist on Leaving Denver?

I am especially looking forward to producing Part Three. Although no one knows exactly except for Anthony himself and possibly a few close associates, Quest for the Ring (QFTR) is highly qualified to explain the most likely reasons.

There will also within a month or two months at the most be this Report:

"What Owners, Managers, and Coaches Should do to Keep Their Superstars"

We are debating whether to make this last one Part Four of the “Aftermath” series; we probably will have it stand on its own instead.

In another future Report (which may or may not be a part of the "Aftermath" series) QFTR will Report on the state of the Nuggets following the Carmelo Anthony trade and following any other trades they might make before the trade deadline (which is on Thursday, February 24).

As a final note, please realize that Parts One and Two were originally joined together (before we realized and corrected the “mistake”). For roughly 36 hours they were posted while combined. When they were separated, both parts were reviewed, improved, and extended. Anyone who read the original combined version might want to start over to get the advantage of the improvements and the additions. But if you did read the original version, you did already get the gist of what we are reporting.

Now let’s get to Part Two of this series…

THE AFTERMATH OF THE CARMELO ANTHONY TRADE PART TWO: WHAT THE KNICKS NEED TO DO NEXT TO BECOME REAL CONTENDERS
The Knicks now have their foot in the door to the Championship house (or crib for BET watchers) but they have a small and a huge problem to deal with before they can go in that house. First we’ll briefly discuss the small problem and then spend a large amount of time discussing the huge problem the Knicks still have.

THE SMALL PROBLEM AT THE POINT THAT WILL KIND OF SOON BECOME A HUGE PROBLEM
The relatively small problem the Knicks have is that at the point the Knicks have only one playoff caliber point guard and he is getting old in basketball terms. They have Chauncey Billups, who is not automatically an outstanding playmaker in the way that Deron Williams or Rajon Rondo are. In fact, Billups will not even necessarily make as many plays for you as will Raymond Felton. If however Knicks Coach Mike D’Antoni and/or D’Antoni’s system have the effect of causing Billups to make more plays and to take fewer shots, then this likely problem would be for a year or two anyway a much smaller problem.

But when Billups is too old, which could be as early as next year and will be within three years at the very most, the Knicks as of now would be without a good point guard and that would completely kill their chances. So obviously, the Knicks need a new, younger, outstanding point guard to complement Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. Specifically, the Knicks have to get a playmaking point guard, even a lower scoring one.

Now if Chris Paul demands to become a Knick the way that Carmelo did, the Knicks’ offense would be pretty much locked into being the best in the NBA for who knows how many years. Deron Williams would be a great consolation prize. (Excuse me for speculating about players moving which I rarely do, but note that technically I’m not speculating about a trade but rather about yet another player conspiring to team up with other conspiratorial superstars. This is NOT speculation about trades which I always promise to almost never and hopefully never do. (I am allowed to occasionally speculate about player conspiracies as long as I don’t overdue it, laugh out loud.)

THE HUGE PROBLEM: IF THEY REALLY WANT TO WIN THE QUEST, THE KNICKS NEED TO UPGRADE DEFENSIVELY
So the Knicks now have two superstars and possibly three if you think Chauncey Billups will be able to play into “old age” in basketball terms. But the problem for the Knicks is that while Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony are superstars, they are not historical superstars (the next level up). They are not at Tim Duncan’s’ or Pau Gasol’s or Kobe Bryant’s or Kevin Garnett’s or Rajon Rondo’s level mainly but not exclusively because they are relatively poor defenders.

Therefore, the Knicks should try to get Stoudemire and Anthony up to the next higher level. Since both of them are below average defenders (which is kind of unusual for such top offensive superstars) the obvious high payoff way to get either of them up to the historical superstar level is to get them to be better defenders.

Although defending is partly energy, effort and raw athleticism, it is also partly talent and defensive intelligence, particularly when you are talking about trying to defend some of the best offensive players in the world. Neither Amare Stoudemire nor Carmelo Anthony have a great amount of defensive talent. They can get better defensively if they “try harder”, but since their talent is limited the best they can ever be defensively is about average.

I not a total expert on Stoudemire but seemingly, Stoudemire has attempted to get better defensively over the years and has improved a little but is still not a high quality defender in or near the paint. Stoudemire’s athletic talent set and his physical attributes are such that he is automatically much more valuable offensively than defensively.

That said I’m sure he could be better defensively if he was strongly coached to become so. The problem for the Knicks is that Mike D’Antoni is apparently not the guy who will ever be able to coach Amare Stoudemire to get better defensively. In other words, I hate to say this, but defensively Mike D’Antoni is one of the worst coaches Amare Stoudemire could possibly have. Hopefully the Knicks at least have an assistant coach who specializes on defense.

Carmelo Anthony has some talents and physical attributes that could theoretically produce and have actually from time to time produced a reasonably good defender, so with him it may at first appear to be simply a matter of effort. But lack of effort is only on the surface what the problem is. Actually, in pro basketball it is rare that mere lack of effort explains some lack among the best players. Almost all players who sometimes simply don’t want to put in effort to achieve something are weeded out long before they reach the NBA. For NBA players and especially for the best of them, the real reason for something being relatively lacking is not effort itself but their thinking that determines what their effort will be.

Note that I am NOT talking about “mental toughness” because that is one of those catch-all terms that many others use but that I never use because it does not really mean much of anything and it doesn’t really get at what is important. As far as I am concerned at least 98% of NBA players (and probably all but one of them, laugh out loud) are “mentally tough” enough, thank you. I am talking about actual thoughts, not about whether someone is “mentally tough” or not; God I hate that misleading and close to worthless term.

Carmelo Anthony is a textbook example of where thinking has led to reduced effort which in turn has led to sub-standard defensive performance. Carmelo clearly knows himself well and concluded a long time ago that he would never be a lock down defender, which is quite true. But Carmelo is used to being among the very best basketball players offensively and overall and it is tough for him to get motivated to put out a lot of effort in a particular basketball component only to end up being average. Since Carmelo is one of the very best offensive players in the League, since he is a very competitive person, and since he understands several of the most important principals involved in winning playoff games and Championships, it can be very difficult to keep him motivated to keep trying enough on defense to keep him up to the average level. His tendency is to reserve almost all of his big efforts for offense and to take a “whatever happens happens” attitude toward defending. So the main objective or consideration about Anthony on defense is keeping him motivated to be merely average.

This is a known “flaw” in very talented, very competitive, and smart people: they decide to put in sub-standard effort in areas where they know there is no way they are going to be among the very best or at least the best. Then they go to the ends of the earth so to speak to be the absolute very best at what they know they can be extremely good at.

Therefore, the coach of Carmelo Anthony needs to teach him that he and his team will have a substantially better chance of winning playoff games and a Championship if he is merely average defensively (as opposed to below average when he doesn’t try hard enough). Not only is it perfectly acceptable for Carmelo to be average in something, it would be great and outstanding for the Knicks if he could be just average in defending.

One final point before we leave the subject of Carmelo’s defending, since this was his big move year, he was finally fully motivated to make the kind of increased effort defensively that I have been talking about. So technically, this season Carmelo has been at the top of his game both offensively and defensively. The above discussion refers to all of the previous years when he was not as good defensively due to the factors discussed. So it is a proven fact that Carmelo can be average defensively when he wants to be.

But the obvious threat is that once Carmelo is settled into the Knicks, he will lapse back into being a well below normal defender. Further, just as D’Antoni is about the worst possible coach you could imagine for Amare Stoudemire becoming a better defender, he is also about the worst possible for getting Carmelo Anthony to keep his defending efforts up so he can be an average defender instead of well below average. Perhaps the Knicks have an assistant Coach whose responsibility it will be to see to it that Carmelo will be average defensively and to see if Stoudemire could get better? If they don’t have such an assistant coach then the Knicks are going to need a new head coach if they really want to win the Quest.

THE KNICKS NEED TO FIND AND PLAY INEXPENSIVE LOCK DOWN DEFENDERS AND YES, IT IS POSSIBLE TO DO THIS
If at least one and preferably both between Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony could simply be average defenders then the Knicks still have their foot in the door for being possible real contenders to win the Quest. After this, what the Knicks need are at least two and preferably three or four good paint defenders and, among those, at least two of them should be outstanding or "lock down" defenders. We are talking about forwards and centers only here; guards are never going to be the kind of lock down paint defenders you need for the playoffs.

Exactly how many quality defensive players the Knicks needs depends on several things, among them:

--Do the Knicks get a younger, playmaking point guard or not?

--Does Mike D’Antoni come to his senses and give substantially more playing time to Ronny Turiaf or not?

--Does Reynaldo Balkman get to play or is he cheated out of playing time?

--For that matter, does Shelden Williams get to play at least a little or not?

--Can the Knicks acquire any lock down defenders or can they get their hands only on good defenders?

The more yes answers to the above, the fewer new defensive players the Knicks need. Arguably, if the answer to every single question above was yes, the Knicks could possibly need as few as one new defensive player who is merely good as opposed to lock down, and they would be serious contenders to win it all. But even if every answer is yes, they probably can not win the Quest with no additional defensive players at all.

You would be wrong if you thought that given how bad the Knicks have been in recent years, and given how obsessed with offense they are due to Coach D'Antoni, that they don't have any good paint defenders as we speak. The Knicks now have these good paint defenders:

--Reynaldo Balkman
--Ronny Turiaf
--Shelden Williams

Note that Balkman and Williams who the Knicks obtained in the trade along with Carmelo and Chauncey are better defenders than any of the players the Knicks gave up with the possible and only in the future exception of Timofey Mozgov.

Among these three and given everything that can go wrong (including D'Antoni cheating them out of minutes) let's say that the Knicks already have at least two good paint defenders. Since Balkman could be a lock down defender, let's be optimistic for a change and say that the Knicks already have one lock down defender. So approximately speaking, the Knicks need one or two more good paint defenders, at least one of which needs to be a full scale lock down paint defender.

The bottom line is that one lock down paint defender might very possibly be enough if D’Antoni voluntarily or if necessary involuntarily gives reasonable playing time to every qualified defensive specialist he has now and in the future. If on the other hand D'Antoni cheats all of the defensive specialists to one extent or another, the Knicks will never win the Quest for the Ring.

In general, if the Knicks got one or two young, inexpensive lock down or good paint defenders, and assuming there is no disaster on the playmaking front (like Billups being too old and there is no new playmaker on the roster) then the Knicks would probably be a true contender to win the Quest.

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE IGNORANCE OF OTHERS REGARDING YOUNG DEFENDERS
The most well known and proven lock down defenders are invariably older veterans. But they come with very high price tags that most teams can not afford, not to mention that their existing teams are going to make it extremely difficult to get them. The objective for a team like the Knicks that is loaded with offensive talent (some of it very expensive) but is short on the defensive is to get high quality defenders on the cheap and then to make sure they get playing time (so D'Antoni may have to be read the riot act, laugh out loud). While often the old “you get what you pay for rule” stands in the way of such bargain hunting, in this case the Knicks can exploit a well known bias among many coaches and among a substantial number of managers. In other words, the Knicks, if they are serious, can indeed get two, three or even four high quality in and near the paint defenders to go along with their two defensively challenged superstars.

In fact, as already alluded to, the Knicks already have a few quality defensive players, but knowing Mike D’Antoni, all of them are going to be cheated of playing time to one extent or another.

QFTR knows that many coaches and probably a number of managers discriminate against young forwards and centers who have what appear to be (or actually are) poor offensive styles and/or poor offensive production. Sometimes they refuse to start them when they clearly should be starting. They don’t give them the playing time they deserve. In extreme cases they refuse to play them at all. Meanwhile, many veteran forwards and many veteran centers who are much more important on defense than on offense are generally not discriminated against by the very same coaches who discriminate against the younger ones. Incidentally, some of the coaches who discriminate against the defensive forwards and centers don’t discriminate against the defensive guards even though the payoff in the playoffs for a high quality defensive guard is less than the payoff you get for a high quality defensive forward.

Further, some coaches discriminate against young, great on defense but questionable on offense forwards and centers much more so than others, but it seems that a majority of coaches make the error of discriminating in this way at least some of the time. Many coaches need to learn that young forwards and centers who are almost 7 feet tall may sometimes not be the most polished offensive players ever seen, but:

--They can be very outstanding and extremely valuable defenders, even more valuable in the playoffs than in the regular season.

--They should like any other player be given the opportunity to get better offensively via experience.

--They should like any other player be worked into the offense to some extent by the coach and the point guards.

IF THE KNICKS REFUSE TO PLAY RENALDO BALKMAN THEY WILL NEVER HEAR THE END OF IT FROM QFTR; WE WILL BURY YOU IN BAD PRESS, LAUGH OUT LOUD
As already mentioned, the Knicks have a new, very outstanding and very valuable inside defender (who comes cheap): Renaldo Balkman. Most people are not going to know this since Balkman has barely played at all since 2008-09. Unfortunately, Balkman apparently has a personality, and/or a style, and/or an appearance that “turns off” coaches who allow their emotions, hunches, and/or biases to determine decisions rather than objective thinking about exactly what they really need out on the court to win games against the best teams.

George Karl is probably the ultimate basket case (sorry for the pun) when it comes to both discrimination against defensively great young forwards AND when it comes to discrimination against players with seemingly bad personalities or styles. Since Balkman fell into both of these bias categories, Karl predictably decided to really detest Balkman and to refuse to play him at all for 2009-10 and then again for 2010-11.

But the thing is, the QFTR Real Player Rating system was fully up and running back in 2008-09, and back then Balkman was new to the Nuggets and Karl had not yet decided he was going to detest Balkman, so Balkman played almost 1,000 minutes and produced a Real Player Rating in the border area between “very good player / solid starter” and “superstar” (slightly over .800). Technically it is a slur to say that Balkman is just a "defensive specialist" who can not produce offensively. Balkman in 2008-09 was not just a defensive specialist at all but was very good on offense also.

Although not quite as pleasing stylistically, and although shorter and packing less muscle, Balkman offensively reminds you of Nene, who has become essentially the most offensively efficient big man in the League. Certainly for a power forward / small forward, Balkman if given a full chance is offensively a poor man’s Nene.

The Knicks are absolute fools and idiots if Reynaldo Balkman gets very little or no playing time simply because he looks funny or just because he doesn’t have the best personality of all time or just because of some other dumb ass reason.

OTHER GREAT PAINT AND MAN TO MAN DEFENDERS THAT THE KNICKS (OR ANYONE ELSE) MIGHT BE ABLE TO OBTAIN, POSSIBLY FOR AMAZINGLY LOW HITS TO PAYROLL
How about some real life examples of players of the kind that the Knicks need? Some of the players on the list below are great more because of rebounding than defending per se, while others are great more so because of the defending and less so due to the rebounding. But all of the ones on the list are defensively great, underrated to one extent or another, and subject to being discriminated against by coaches who don’t understand the importance of this type of player. Ironically, even coaches who preach defense sometimes discriminate against this type of player.

All of the following are currently 30 years or fewer years old. When older than that they are generally harder to get, more expensive, and of course the number of years left in the career will be fewer.

The more underrated and/or the worse on offense the following players are, the cheaper they would probably be to get.

The order is alphabetical by first name.

--Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
--Anthony Tolliver, Minnesota Timberwolves
--Caron Butler, Dallas Mavericks
--Chuck Hayes, Houston Rockets
--DeJuan Blair, San Antonio Spurs
--Emeka Okafor, New Orleans Hornets
--Gerald Wallace, Charlotte Bobcats
--James Singleton, now playing in China
--Joel Anthony, Miami Heat
--Joey Dorsey, Toronto Raptors
--Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
--Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
--Kosta Koufos, Minnesota Timberwolves
--Kyrylo Fesenko, Utah Jazz
--Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls
--Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
--Marcin Gortat, Phoenix Suns
--Matt Barnes, Los Angeles Lakers
--Oleksiy Pecherov, now playing in Italy
--Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz
--Reggie Evans, Toronto Raptors
--Reynaldo Balkman, New York Knicks
--Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma Thunder
--Stephen Graham, New Jersey Nets
--Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls

The Knicks don't have to try to get Reynaldo Balkman because they already have him; some things are easy after all! Did I mention already that there will be hell to pay if Balkman does not get substantial playing time?

Some of the players listed will prove impossible to get (good luck trying to get Kevin Love, for example, laugh out loud) but you can't know for sure until you creatively try to get them.

Of course, the above listing does not include every single possibility; it includes only most of the players (not all of them) who were proven to be very high quality defenders in 2009-10 and/or so far in 2010-11. Aside from proven players such as these there would be a few rookies and near rookies who might solve the Knicks’ dilemma, provided that D’Antoni is smart enough to play them, which unfortunately is debatable to say the least. Just about the worst possible coaching error I can think of would be if the Knicks obtained Ibaka but then D’Antoni refused to give him a lot of minutes.

While all of the above are just the kind of outstanding defenders the Knicks desperately need, some of them are much better than others on offense. For example, Reggie Evans and Joel Anthony are very poor on offense. On the other hand, Serge Ibaka and Al Horford are very, very good on offense. But again, the Knicks given what they already have for offense do NOT necessarily have to have a great paint defender who is also really good on offense. Assuming they get the point guard taken care of, the Knicks have so much on the offensive side that Joel Anthony or DeJuan Blair or even Reggie Evans would be important additions for the Knicks.

The ultimate prize from the above list could easily be Ibaka; he would be the best combination of extremely valuable defending, very good offensively, very young, and probably remarkably cheap. If the Knicks could somehow get Ibaka it would be a huge step toward winning the Quest right there.

As for someone that almost no one knows about, I like Joey Dorsey.

I don’t know the details but the Timberwolves seem to be experts at letting good and underrated players go so that could explain why Percherov is playing in Italy right now.

As for Josh Smith and Al Horford, they are probably the very best players on the list above and would be extremely difficult if not impossible to pry from the Atlanta Hawks since without them the Hawks could very possibly instantly go from being one of the better teams in the League to just about the worst. The Knicks would want Horford rather than Smith because Horford’s size and center position would be perfect for them. If the Knicks somehow got Horford, their starting three at the three, four, and five positions would be by far the best in the NBA not only right now but in many years.

THE VERY BEST FRANCHISES FULLY UNDERSTAND WHAT I AM REPORTING TO YOU AND THEY HAVE TAKEN CARE OF THIS ALREADY
Andrew Bynum could be on the list but the Lakers know all about what I am trying to teach you and so despite the fact that Bynum is as we speak only 23 years old they have paid him a fortune and have claimed him for probably all eternity. By contrast, the dumb teams would never dream of paying someone that young around or more than 10 million dollars a year or, for that matter, the dumb teams would not be giving someone that young major playing time. This is one reason why Phil Jackson and the Lakers win Championships while dumb teams don’t. Face facts, even if you DO have mega bucks to spend you are almost certainly NOT going to be prying Bynum from the Lakers.

Of course, in case you don’t know, Bynum along with Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Ron Artest form the “Great Wall of Los Angeles”, the relatively impenetrable defense in the playoffs of the Lakers. Just as I didn’t include Bynum on the list, it would be silly to put any of the other three on the list either, since unless hell freezes over the Lakers are not going to part with any of them.

What about the Boston Celtics? Do the Celtics have their Andrew Bynum or, in other words, do they have a young and inexpensive (or at least can be inexpensive, laugh out loud) but extremely good player who can handle defending the paint better than almost anyone in existence? In other words, do the Celtics know about what I am trying to teach you? Of course to all those questions! In fact, the Celtics actually have one young and inexpensive lock down and one young and inexpensive and near lock down paint defender, Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis respectively. For the Celtics, these are the two young players who supplement the older, far more expensive veterans who are lock down and near lock down paint defenders, namely, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. At less than five million dollars in salary, Perkins is very possibly the biggest bargain in the NBA this year.

What about the San Antonio Spurs? Their extremely good defender who they have for very little money is currently center DeJuan Blair who is in his second year and is just 21 years old. Many coaches including obviously and especially George Karl would refuse to start someone so young unless they had no warm bodies, but since Greg Popovich is one of the very best coaches in the world, of course he is very willing to start Blair at Center and does so virtually or literally every single game. (Phil Jackson and Doc Rivers likewise have no problem starting Bynum and Perkins respectively).

Any coach who refuses to start a very young player (defensive or otherwise) who is better than all the older players at the position, just because of the age, is an idiot for overestimating the disadvantages of youth, including Scott Brooks if he refuses to start Serge Ibaka this year.

I could give one or two more examples but I assume you must have gotten the message by now and that you must by now see the pattern. The very best pro franchises and teams all have at least one young (often very young) but very outstanding defender who is a forward or center and who can defend the paint extremely well. A good offense is icing on the cake but is not absolutely required. The best franchises often but not always have these players for cheap simply because they are young. And the very best teams actually play those players instead of parking them on the bench due to stupidity or due to old superstitions about young players.

Young players need more years experience to be great offensively than to be great defensively. Teams which need defenders need to take advantage of that knowledge. And always remember that defending the paint very well has a huge payoff in playoff games.

Meanwhile, most of the also ran, dumber teams will continue to year in and year out discriminate against young players and they also will year in and year out tend to discriminate against forwards and centers who are extremely good defenders but who are not good on offense and/or they have styles or personalities that are not likable.

The Knicks need to go out and get at least one and preferably two players of the type we have been discussing. In other words, the Knicks need to join the smart, elite teams and to leave the also ran, dumb teams behind.